Haras El Hodood vs El Dakhleya
Match result probability Model pick: Haras El Hodood win
Haras El Hodood winPick
49.7%
Draw
28.2%
El Dakhleya win
22.1%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes45.5%
No54.5%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.543.7%
Under 2.556.3%
How much we know
Haras El Hodood history61 matches
El Dakhleya history54 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Haras El Hodood
Over / under 2.5: ours Under
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead7 Nov · 08:56 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 11:30 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre13 Nov · 12:30 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,663 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,748
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,387
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,845
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,914
70–79% Won 76.0% · said 73.9% · n 601
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 168
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (49.7%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,387 matches.
Why Haras El Hodood are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
El Dakhleya are rated 49 Elo points higher
Elo 1,444 against 1,395. On rating alone El Dakhleya would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.
-
El Dakhleya score more
0.79 goals a game over 61 matches for Haras El Hodood, against 0.93 over 54 for El Dakhleya.
-
Defences are close
Haras El Hodood concede 1.38 a game, El Dakhleya 1.35.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
36% of Haras El Hodood matches, against 39% for El Dakhleya. The model puts this match at 44% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 30 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
El Dakhleya@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1394.7
ELO
1444.1
61
ELO · Matches
54
1394.7
Current Team ELO
1444.1
1444.1
Current Opponent ELO
1394.7
-49.40
Current ELO Difference
49.40
0.43
Expected score
0.57
61
History Matches
54
-0.08
Residual Mean
-0.05
43.95
Overperformance
46.33
-0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.01
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.80
1.00
Goals for per game
1.20
1.80
Goals against per game
0.80
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
0.70
PPG
1.10
0.90
Goals for per game
1.00
1.50
Goals against per game
1.40
10.0%
Win rate
30.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
0.83
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.77
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.28
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.28
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.28
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.62
Overall performance9 signals 90
61
Matches
54
0.90
PPG
1.11
19.7%
Win rate
27.8%
31.1%
Draw rate
27.8%
49.2%
Loss rate
44.4%
62.3%
Over 1.5 rate
68.5%
36.1%
Over 2.5 rate
38.9%
18.0%
Over 3.5 rate
16.7%
1.35
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.44
Venue performance10 signals 100
32
Matches
27
1.16
PPG
1.19
25.0%
Win rate
25.9%
40.6%
Draw rate
40.7%
34.4%
Loss rate
33.3%
59.4%
Over 1.5 rate
74.1%
34.4%
Over 2.5 rate
40.7%
12.5%
Over 3.5 rate
14.8%
1.19
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.36
32
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.79
Goals for per game
0.93
59.0%
Scoring rate
68.5%
41.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
0.84
Goals for per game
0.96
65.6%
Scoring rate
70.4%
43.8%
BTTS rate
63.0%
61
History Matches
54
0.79
Goals Mean
0.93
0.77
Goals Std
0.79
59.0%
Scored 1+ rate
68.5%
18.0%
Scored 2+ rate
20.4%
1.6%
Scored 3+ rate
3.7%
0.84
Venue Goals Mean
0.96
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.38
Goals against per game
1.35
68.9%
Conceding rate
72.2%
1.06
Goals against per game
1.30
59.4%
Conceding rate
81.5%
61
History Matches
54
1.38
Conceded Mean
1.35
1.23
Conceded Std
1.22
44.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
37.0%
18.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.7%
1.06
Venue Conceded Mean
1.30
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
31.1%
Clean-sheet rate
27.8%
41.0%
Failed-to-score rate
31.5%
40.6%
Clean-sheet rate
18.5%
34.4%
Failed-to-score rate
29.6%
31.1%
Clean-sheet rate
27.8%
41.0%
Failed-to-score rate
31.5%
40.6%
Clean-sheet rate
18.5%
34.4%
Failed-to-score rate
29.6%
31.1%
Clean-sheet rate
27.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
61
History Matches
54
0.94
Result entropy
0.98
1.35
Goal Difference Std
1.44
6.05
Stability score
2.42
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
61
Eligible Matches
53
10
Lead Matches
8
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
87.5%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.92
23
Trailing Matches
21
13.0%
Non-loss rate
28.6%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
9.5%
Goal timing5 signals 50
61
Halftime Coverage Matches
53
0.43
First Half Goals For Mean
0.26
0.74
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.53
0.36
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.66
0.64
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.83
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
167.8
Rest days
183.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
1
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
40
Normal Rest History Matches
33
0.80
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.94
17
Long Rest History Matches
19
0.82
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.42
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
5
Competition Season Count
2
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.92
Portability PPG Std
0.09
2.67
Portability PPG Range
0.18
35.11
Portability Score
85.00
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
61
Clean History Matches
54
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-49.40
PPG-0.21
GF-0.14
GA0.03
PPG-0.03
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate3.4%
Failed-to-score rate9.5%
History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate22.1%
Failed-to-score rate4.7%
History Matches7
Goals Mean-0.14
Goals Std-0.02
Scored 1+ rate-0.10
Scored 2+ rate-0.02
Scored 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Goals Mean-0.12
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.06
History Matches7
Conceded Mean0.03
Conceded Std0.01
Clean-sheet rate3.4%
Conceded 2+ rate7.2%
Conceded 3+ rate1.4%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.23
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.00
History Matches7
Result entropy-0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.09
Stability score3.63
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.34
Eligible Matches8
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate-0.08
Lead Points Retention-0.08
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate-0.16
Trailing Win Rate-0.10
Halftime Coverage Matches8
First Half Goals For Mean0.16
First Half Goals Against Mean0.21
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.30
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.19
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count3
Portability PPG Std0.84
Portability PPG Range2.49
Portability Score-49.89
Rest days-15.15
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match1.00
Normal Rest History Matches7
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.14
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.60
Current Team ELO-49.40
Current Opponent ELO49.40
Current ELO Difference-98.80
Expected score-0.14
History Matches7
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-2.38
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.03
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Haras El Hodood
L
El Mansura2–1Haras El Hodood29 Oct · away
Pick: El Mansura 35% · hit D
Haras El Hodood2–2Proxy23 Oct · home
Pick: Haras El Hodood 49% · missed D
La Viena FC0–0Haras El Hodood15 Oct · away
Pick: La Viena FC 43% · missed D
Haras El Hodood1–1El Seka El Hadid8 Oct · home
Pick: Haras El Hodood 45% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
El Dakhleya
D
AL Nasr SC2–2El Dakhleya22 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 39% · hit L
El Dakhleya1–3Itesalat15 Oct · home
Pick: Itesalat 41% · hit L
Masar3–1El Dakhleya8 Oct · away
Pick: Masar 40% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Haras El Hodood and El Dakhleya meet in Second League on Friday 13 November 2026, kickoff 12:30 UTC. The match is played at Harras El Hodood Stadium, Alexandria. ScoreProb published its prediction on 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC: Haras El Hodood win 49.7%, draw 28.2%, El Dakhleya win 22.1%. The pick is Haras El Hodood win. Over 2.5 goals: 43.7%. Both teams to score: 45.5%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.