Itesalat vs Kahraba Ismailia
Match result probability Model pick: Kahraba Ismailia win
Itesalat win
34.3%
Draw
30.6%
Kahraba Ismailia winPick
35.1%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes48.6%
No51.4%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.545.3%
Under 2.554.7%
How much we know
Itesalat history57 matches
Kahraba Ismailia history61 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Kahraba Ismailia
Over / under 2.5: ours Under
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead7 Nov · 08:56 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 11:30 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre13 Nov · 12:30 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,663 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,748
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,387
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,845
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,914
70–79% Won 76.0% · said 73.9% · n 601
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 168
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (35.1%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,748 matches.
Why Kahraba Ismailia are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,475 against 1,494. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
-
Kahraba Ismailia score far more
0.82 goals a game over 57 matches for Itesalat, against 1.30 over 61 for Kahraba Ismailia.
-
Itesalat concede fewer
Itesalat concede 1.16 a game, Kahraba Ismailia 1.33.
-
Kahraba Ismailia games more often go over 2.5 goals
40% of Itesalat matches, against 51% for Kahraba Ismailia. The model puts this match at 45% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 30 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Kahraba Ismailia@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1474.8
ELO
1494.3
57
ELO · Matches
61
1474.8
Current Team ELO
1494.3
1494.3
Current Opponent ELO
1474.8
-19.47
Current ELO Difference
19.47
0.47
Expected score
0.53
57
History Matches
61
-0.02
Residual Mean
0.00
48.61
Overperformance
50.06
-0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.00
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
1.20
0.40
Goals for per game
0.80
1.60
Goals against per game
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
1.30
1.00
Goals for per game
1.10
1.70
Goals against per game
1.40
10.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.70
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.02
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.62
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.19
Overall performance9 signals 90
57
Matches
61
1.16
PPG
1.41
26.3%
Win rate
34.4%
36.8%
Draw rate
37.7%
36.8%
Loss rate
27.9%
59.6%
Over 1.5 rate
77.0%
40.4%
Over 2.5 rate
50.8%
12.3%
Over 3.5 rate
23.0%
1.33
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.27
Venue performance10 signals 100
29
Matches
28
1.10
PPG
1.89
27.6%
Win rate
50.0%
27.6%
Draw rate
39.3%
44.8%
Loss rate
10.7%
51.7%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
37.9%
Over 2.5 rate
42.9%
6.9%
Over 3.5 rate
17.9%
1.35
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.14
29
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.82
Goals for per game
1.30
54.4%
Scoring rate
85.2%
40.4%
BTTS rate
67.2%
0.69
Goals for per game
1.36
48.3%
Scoring rate
85.7%
34.5%
BTTS rate
60.7%
57
History Matches
61
0.82
Goals Mean
1.30
0.86
Goals Std
0.80
54.4%
Scored 1+ rate
85.2%
26.3%
Scored 2+ rate
37.7%
1.8%
Scored 3+ rate
6.6%
0.69
Venue Goals Mean
1.36
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.16
Goals against per game
1.33
70.2%
Conceding rate
75.4%
1.14
Goals against per game
0.96
69.0%
Conceding rate
67.9%
57
History Matches
61
1.16
Conceded Mean
1.33
1.01
Conceded Std
1.16
31.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
36.1%
14.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.1%
1.14
Venue Conceded Mean
0.96
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
29.8%
Clean-sheet rate
24.6%
45.6%
Failed-to-score rate
14.8%
31.0%
Clean-sheet rate
32.1%
51.7%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
29.8%
Clean-sheet rate
24.6%
45.6%
Failed-to-score rate
14.8%
31.0%
Clean-sheet rate
32.1%
51.7%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
29.8%
Clean-sheet rate
24.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
57
History Matches
61
0.99
Result entropy
0.99
1.33
Goal Difference Std
1.27
1.05
Stability score
0.70
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
57
Eligible Matches
59
13
Lead Matches
12
84.6%
Lead Win Rate
58.3%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.69
17
Trailing Matches
17
29.4%
Non-loss rate
47.1%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
17.6%
Goal timing5 signals 50
57
Halftime Coverage Matches
59
0.37
First Half Goals For Mean
0.37
0.49
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.47
0.46
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.93
0.67
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.86
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
183.0
Rest days
167.9
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
2
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
39
Normal Rest History Matches
41
0.97
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.59
16
Long Rest History Matches
17
1.38
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.94
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.39
Portability PPG Std
0.52
0.93
Portability PPG Range
1.23
56.47
Portability Score
49.21
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
57
Clean History Matches
61
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-19.47
PPG-0.25
GF-0.47
GA-0.17
PPG-0.79
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate5.2%
Failed-to-score rate30.9%
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate37.4%
History Matches-4
Goals Mean-0.47
Goals Std0.06
Scored 1+ rate-0.31
Scored 2+ rate-0.11
Scored 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Goals Mean-0.67
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.30
History Matches-4
Conceded Mean-0.17
Conceded Std-0.15
Clean-sheet rate5.2%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.04
Conceded 3+ rate0.9%
Venue Conceded Mean0.17
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.01
History Matches-4
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std0.06
Stability score0.35
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.43
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate26.3%
Lead Points Retention0.18
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate-0.18
Trailing Win Rate-0.18
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean0.00
First Half Goals Against Mean0.02
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.48
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.20
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.13
Portability PPG Range-0.30
Portability Score7.26
Rest days15.02
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match2.00
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.61
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.43
Current Team ELO-19.47
Current Opponent ELO19.47
Current ELO Difference-38.95
Expected score-0.06
History Matches-4
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-1.45
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.09
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Itesalat
D
Itesalat0–0Baladiyyat Al Mehalla22 Oct · home
Pick: Draw 37% · hit W
El Dakhleya1–3Itesalat15 Oct · away
Pick: Itesalat 41% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Kahraba Ismailia
D
Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat0–0Kahraba Ismailia22 Oct · away
Pick: Kahraba Ismailia 48% · missed L
Kahraba Ismailia2–3Team15 Oct · home
Pick: Kahraba Ismailia 61% · missed D
Tersana2–2Kahraba Ismailia8 Oct · away
Pick: Kahraba Ismailia 42% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Itesalat and Kahraba Ismailia meet in Second League on Friday 13 November 2026, kickoff 12:30 UTC. The match is played at Telecom Egypt Club Stadium. ScoreProb published its prediction on 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC: Itesalat win 34.3%, draw 30.6%, Kahraba Ismailia win 35.1%. The pick is Kahraba Ismailia win. Over 2.5 goals: 45.3%. Both teams to score: 48.6%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.