Istiqlol vs Istaravshan
Match result probability Model pick: Istiqlol win
Istiqlol winPick
82.0%
Draw
12.5%
Istaravshan win
5.5%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes43.5%
No56.5%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.560.7%
Under 2.539.3%
How much we know
Istiqlol history39 matches
Istaravshan history35 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Istiqlol
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
- Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 11:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,274 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,668
40–49% Won 45.5% · said 44.8% · n 6,228
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,755
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,872
70–79% Won 76.3% · said 73.9% · n 587
80%+ Won 83.5% · said 84.5% · n 164
This pick sits in the 80%+ band (82.0%). Picks in that band won 83.5% of the time, and the model said 84.5% on average, over 164 matches. This band has few matches, so treat the figures with care.
Why Istiqlol are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Istiqlol are rated 230 Elo points higher
Elo 1,627 against 1,397. On rating alone Istiqlol would be expected to take 79% of the points on offer.
-
Istiqlol score far more
1.97 goals a game over 39 matches for Istiqlol, against 0.97 over 35 for Istaravshan.
-
Istiqlol concede fewer
Istiqlol concede 0.87 a game, Istaravshan 1.89.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
49% of Istiqlol matches, against 49% for Istaravshan. The model puts this match at 61% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 17 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Istaravshan@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1626.6
ELO
1396.8
39
ELO · Matches
35
1626.6
Current Team ELO
1396.8
1396.8
Current Opponent ELO
1626.6
229.9
Current ELO Difference
-229.9
0.79
Expected score
0.21
39
History Matches
35
0.16
Residual Mean
-0.14
60.48
Overperformance
40.89
0.22
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.22
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
2.60
PPG
0.40
1.20
Goals for per game
1.00
0.20
Goals against per game
2.20
80.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
2.40
PPG
0.30
1.40
Goals for per game
0.90
0.30
Goals against per game
2.10
70.0%
Win rate
0.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
0.92
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.54
0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.10
0.46
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.30
0.56
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.56
0.94
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.08
Overall performance9 signals 90
39
Matches
35
2.08
PPG
0.69
61.5%
Win rate
11.4%
23.1%
Draw rate
34.3%
15.4%
Loss rate
54.3%
69.2%
Over 1.5 rate
77.1%
48.7%
Over 2.5 rate
48.6%
23.1%
Over 3.5 rate
31.4%
2.36
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
Venue performance10 signals 100
19
Matches
17
2.26
PPG
0.29
68.4%
Win rate
0.0%
21.1%
Draw rate
29.4%
10.5%
Loss rate
70.6%
68.4%
Over 1.5 rate
64.7%
47.4%
Over 2.5 rate
47.1%
21.1%
Over 3.5 rate
35.3%
2.07
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.54
19
History Matches
17
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.97
Goals for per game
0.97
76.9%
Scoring rate
68.6%
43.6%
BTTS rate
65.7%
2.00
Goals for per game
0.71
73.7%
Scoring rate
52.9%
36.8%
BTTS rate
52.9%
1.17
Goals for per game
0.85
66.7%
Scoring rate
69.2%
25.0%
BTTS rate
69.2%
39
History Matches
35
1.97
Goals Mean
0.97
2.02
Goals Std
0.77
76.9%
Scored 1+ rate
68.6%
51.3%
Scored 2+ rate
28.6%
23.1%
Scored 3+ rate
0.0%
2.00
Venue Goals Mean
0.71
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
0.87
Goals against per game
1.89
56.4%
Conceding rate
88.6%
0.74
Goals against per game
2.18
47.4%
Conceding rate
88.2%
0.33
Goals against per game
1.85
33.3%
Conceding rate
92.3%
39
History Matches
35
0.87
Conceded Mean
1.89
1.11
Conceded Std
1.49
15.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
45.7%
7.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
25.7%
0.74
Venue Conceded Mean
2.18
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
43.6%
Clean-sheet rate
11.4%
23.1%
Failed-to-score rate
31.4%
52.6%
Clean-sheet rate
11.8%
26.3%
Failed-to-score rate
47.1%
66.7%
Clean-sheet rate
7.7%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
30.8%
43.6%
Clean-sheet rate
11.4%
23.1%
Failed-to-score rate
31.4%
52.6%
Clean-sheet rate
11.8%
26.3%
Failed-to-score rate
47.1%
43.6%
Clean-sheet rate
11.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
39
History Matches
35
0.84
Result entropy
0.86
2.36
Goal Difference Std
1.50
15.79
Stability score
13.84
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
39
Eligible Matches
32
19
Lead Matches
3
84.2%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
0.67
7
Trailing Matches
12
14.3%
Non-loss rate
16.7%
14.3%
Trailing Win Rate
8.3%
Goal timing5 signals 50
39
Halftime Coverage Matches
32
0.92
First Half Goals For Mean
0.38
0.33
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.88
1.05
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.66
0.54
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.03
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
83.92
Rest days
82.92
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
18
Normal Rest History Matches
16
2.17
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.94
20
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.95
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.44
Competition & season17 signals 170
12
Matches
13
2.08
PPG
0.38
58.3%
Win rate
0.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
38.5%
8.3%
Loss rate
61.5%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
76.9%
25.0%
Over 2.5 rate
46.2%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
23.1%
1.07
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.04
12
Current Competition Matches
13
2.08
Current Competition PPG
0.38
0.83
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
3
Competition Season Count
2
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.32
Portability PPG Std
0.24
0.74
Portability PPG Range
0.48
61.14
Portability Score
67.61
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
39
Clean History Matches
35
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO229.9
PPG1.39
GF1.00
GA-1.01
PPG1.70
PPG1.97
PPG2.20
PPG2.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate32.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate40.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.21
History Matches4
Goals Mean1.00
Goals Std1.24
Scored 1+ rate8.4%
Scored 2+ rate22.7%
Scored 3+ rate23.1%
Venue Goals Mean1.29
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.38
History Matches4
Conceded Mean-1.01
Conceded Std-0.37
Clean-sheet rate32.2%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.30
Conceded 3+ rate-0.18
Venue Conceded Mean-1.44
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.84
History Matches4
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.86
Stability score1.95
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.13
Eligible Matches7
Lead Matches16
Lead Win Rate17.5%
Lead Points Retention0.23
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate-0.02
Trailing Win Rate6.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches7
First Half Goals For Mean0.55
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.54
Second Half Goals For Mean0.40
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.49
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG1.70
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.83
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.08
Portability PPG Range0.26
Portability Score-6.47
Rest days1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.23
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match1.51
Current Team ELO229.9
Current Opponent ELO-229.9
Current ELO Difference459.8
Expected score0.58
History Matches4
Residual Mean0.30
Overperformance19.58
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.43
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Istiqlol
L
Istiqlol0–2Wathba23 Oct · home
Pick: Istiqlol 48% · missed W
Istiqlol2–0Al Arabi20 Oct · home
Pick: Al Arabi 41% · missed L
Al Nejmeh1–0Istiqlol17 Oct · away
Pick: Al Nejmeh 52% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Istaravshan
L
Sardor Tursunzoda2–0Istaravshan27 Oct · away
Pick: Sardor Tursunzoda 49% · hit D
Khatlon1–1Istaravshan29 Aug · away
Pick: Khatlon 67% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Istiqlol and Istaravshan meet in Vysshaya Liga on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Istiqlol win 82.0%, draw 12.5%, Istaravshan win 5.5%. The pick is Istiqlol win. Over 2.5 goals: 60.7%. Both teams to score: 43.5%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.