ScoreProb
Vysshaya Liga Tajikistan Round 22 2026

Khosilot Farkhor vs Eskhata

Khosilot Farkhor Home · Elo 1,541
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Eskhata Away · Elo 1,478
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Khosilot Farkhor win
Khosilot Farkhor winPick
56.6%
Draw
20.1%
Eskhata win
23.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.5%
No43.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.555.3%
Under 2.544.7%

How much we know

Khosilot Farkhor history35 matches
Eskhata history35 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (56.6%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Khosilot Farkhor are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Khosilot Farkhor are rated 63 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,541 against 1,478. On rating alone Khosilot Farkhor would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • Khosilot Farkhor score more

    1.60 goals a game over 35 matches for Khosilot Farkhor, against 1.26 over 35 for Eskhata.

  • Khosilot Farkhor concede fewer

    Khosilot Farkhor concede 1.46 a game, Eskhata 1.63.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    54% of Khosilot Farkhor matches, against 49% for Eskhata. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 15 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Khosilot Farkhor
Eskhata@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1541.0
ELO
1478.1
35
ELO · Matches
35
1541.0
Current Team ELO
1478.1
1478.1
Current Opponent ELO
1541.0
62.93
Current ELO Difference
-62.93
0.59
Expected score
0.41
35
History Matches
35
0.06
Residual Mean
-0.03
53.57
Overperformance
48.18
0.25
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.60
PPG
0.80
3.80
Goals for per game
1.40
1.80
Goals against per game
2.80
80.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
2.10
PPG
1.20
2.50
Goals for per game
1.40
1.30
Goals against per game
2.10
60.0%
Win rate
30.0%
2.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.75
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.20
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.10
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.76
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.66
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.79
Overall performance9 signals
90
35
Matches
35
1.49
PPG
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
28.6%
28.6%
Draw rate
34.3%
31.4%
Loss rate
37.1%
74.3%
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
54.3%
Over 2.5 rate
48.6%
28.6%
Over 3.5 rate
31.4%
2.18
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.57
Venue performance10 signals
100
17
Matches
17
2.00
PPG
1.18
58.8%
Win rate
29.4%
23.5%
Draw rate
29.4%
17.6%
Loss rate
41.2%
82.4%
Over 1.5 rate
70.6%
58.8%
Over 2.5 rate
58.8%
29.4%
Over 3.5 rate
47.1%
2.68
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
17
History Matches
17
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.60
Goals for per game
1.26
80.0%
Scoring rate
74.3%
62.9%
BTTS rate
60.0%
1.71
Goals for per game
1.41
88.2%
Scoring rate
76.5%
58.8%
BTTS rate
64.7%
2.21
Goals for per game
1.29
78.6%
Scoring rate
71.4%
57.1%
BTTS rate
64.3%
35
History Matches
35
1.60
Goals Mean
1.26
1.48
Goals Std
1.08
80.0%
Scored 1+ rate
74.3%
37.1%
Scored 2+ rate
34.3%
22.9%
Scored 3+ rate
11.4%
1.71
Venue Goals Mean
1.41
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.46
Goals against per game
1.63
80.0%
Conceding rate
77.1%
1.53
Goals against per game
1.88
70.6%
Conceding rate
82.4%
1.14
Goals against per game
2.07
71.4%
Conceding rate
85.7%
35
History Matches
35
1.46
Conceded Mean
1.63
1.54
Conceded Std
1.49
40.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
45.7%
8.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.0%
1.53
Venue Conceded Mean
1.88
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
22.9%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.7%
29.4%
Clean-sheet rate
17.6%
11.8%
Failed-to-score rate
23.5%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
21.4%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
22.9%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.7%
29.4%
Clean-sheet rate
17.6%
11.8%
Failed-to-score rate
23.5%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
22.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
35
History Matches
35
0.99
Result entropy
0.99
2.18
Goal Difference Std
1.57
0.95
Stability score
0.53
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
34
Eligible Matches
33
10
Lead Matches
5
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
60.0%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.73
11
Trailing Matches
10
45.5%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
34
Halftime Coverage Matches
33
0.65
First Half Goals For Mean
0.36
0.68
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.64
0.97
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.85
0.82
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
84.92
Rest days
85.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
8
Normal Rest History Matches
14
1.38
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.71
26
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.58
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.90
Competition & season17 signals
170
14
Matches
14
2.00
PPG
1.07
57.1%
Win rate
28.6%
28.6%
Draw rate
21.4%
14.3%
Loss rate
50.0%
71.4%
Over 1.5 rate
78.6%
57.1%
Over 2.5 rate
64.3%
42.9%
Over 3.5 rate
42.9%
1.62
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.66
14
Current Competition Matches
14
2.00
Current Competition PPG
1.07
1.07
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.79
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.43
Portability PPG Std
0.11
0.86
Portability PPG Range
0.21
53.85
Portability Score
82.35
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
35
Clean History Matches
35
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO62.93
PPG0.29
GF0.34
GA-0.17
PPG0.93
PPG0.82
PPG1.80
PPG0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate11.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.12
History Matches0
Goals Mean0.34
Goals Std0.40
Scored 1+ rate5.7%
Scored 2+ rate2.9%
Scored 3+ rate11.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.29
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.55
History Matches0
Conceded Mean-0.17
Conceded Std0.04
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Conceded 2+ rate-0.06
Conceded 3+ rate-0.11
Venue Conceded Mean-0.35
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.86
History Matches0
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std0.61
Stability score0.42
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.13
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate20.0%
Lead Points Retention0.10
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate45.5%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean0.28
First Half Goals Against Mean0.04
Second Half Goals For Mean0.12
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.18
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.93
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.86
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.32
Portability PPG Range0.64
Portability Score-28.51
Rest days-0.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-6
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.34
Long Rest History Matches6
Long Rest Points Per Match0.68
Current Team ELO62.93
Current Opponent ELO-62.93
Current ELO Difference125.9
Expected score0.18
History Matches0
Residual Mean0.08
Overperformance5.39
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.27

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Khosilot Farkhor

D
Barki Tajik1–1Khosilot Farkhor30 Oct · away
Pick: Khosilot Farkhor 45% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Eskhata

D
Sardor Tursunzoda1–1Eskhata12 Oct · away
Pick: Sardor Tursunzoda 44% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Khosilot Farkhor and Eskhata meet in Vysshaya Liga on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Khosilot Farkhor win 56.6%, draw 20.1%, Eskhata win 23.3%. The pick is Khosilot Farkhor win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.3%. Both teams to score: 56.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.