ScoreProb
Vysshaya Liga Tajikistan Round 22 2026

Khujand vs Barki Tajik

Khujand Home · Elo 1,520
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Barki Tajik Away · Elo 1,496
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Khujand win
Khujand winPick
44.0%
Draw
30.8%
Barki Tajik win
25.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes42.9%
No57.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.538.0%
Under 2.562.0%

How much we know

Khujand history35 matches
Barki Tajik history33 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.0%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Khujand are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,520 against 1,496. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.09 goals a game over 35 matches for Khujand, against 1.03 over 33 for Barki Tajik.

  • Defences are close

    Khujand concede 0.97 a game, Barki Tajik 1.06.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    40% of Khujand matches, against 39% for Barki Tajik. The model puts this match at 38% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 17 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Khujand
Barki Tajik@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1520.4
ELO
1496.0
35
ELO · Matches
33
1520.4
Current Team ELO
1496.0
1496.0
Current Opponent ELO
1520.4
24.34
Current ELO Difference
-24.34
0.53
Expected score
0.47
35
History Matches
33
0.03
Residual Mean
-0.01
51.69
Overperformance
49.51
0.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.20
0.80
Goals for per game
1.40
0.40
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.20
1.10
Goals for per game
1.20
0.90
Goals against per game
1.40
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.22
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.60
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
0.83
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.80
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.40
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.98
Overall performance9 signals
90
35
Matches
33
1.46
PPG
1.24
40.0%
Win rate
30.3%
25.7%
Draw rate
33.3%
34.3%
Loss rate
36.4%
57.1%
Over 1.5 rate
63.6%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
39.4%
14.3%
Over 3.5 rate
15.2%
1.33
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.17
Venue performance10 signals
100
17
Matches
17
1.88
PPG
1.24
52.9%
Win rate
29.4%
29.4%
Draw rate
35.3%
17.6%
Loss rate
35.3%
47.1%
Over 1.5 rate
88.2%
29.4%
Over 2.5 rate
47.1%
5.9%
Over 3.5 rate
23.5%
1.19
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.41
17
History Matches
17
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.09
Goals for per game
1.03
74.3%
Scoring rate
66.7%
45.7%
BTTS rate
45.5%
1.18
Goals for per game
1.29
76.5%
Scoring rate
76.5%
35.3%
BTTS rate
52.9%
1.08
Goals for per game
1.25
61.5%
Scoring rate
83.3%
30.8%
BTTS rate
66.7%
35
History Matches
33
1.09
Goals Mean
1.03
0.91
Goals Std
0.90
74.3%
Scored 1+ rate
66.7%
25.7%
Scored 2+ rate
30.3%
5.7%
Scored 3+ rate
6.1%
1.18
Venue Goals Mean
1.29
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.97
Goals against per game
1.06
60.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
0.53
Goals against per game
1.29
41.2%
Conceding rate
70.6%
0.69
Goals against per game
1.50
46.2%
Conceding rate
83.3%
35
History Matches
33
0.97
Conceded Mean
1.06
1.00
Conceded Std
0.85
28.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
39.4%
5.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
0.0%
0.53
Venue Conceded Mean
1.29
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
25.7%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
58.8%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
23.5%
Failed-to-score rate
23.5%
53.8%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
38.5%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
25.7%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
58.8%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
23.5%
Failed-to-score rate
23.5%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
35
History Matches
33
0.99
Result entropy
1.00
1.33
Goal Difference Std
1.17
1.44
Stability score
0.25
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
32
Eligible Matches
31
6
Lead Matches
7
83.3%
Lead Win Rate
57.1%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
0.67
11
Trailing Matches
7
27.3%
Non-loss rate
42.9%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
14.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
32
Halftime Coverage Matches
31
0.34
First Half Goals For Mean
0.45
0.56
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.42
0.72
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.61
0.47
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.68
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
82.92
Rest days
85.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
12
Normal Rest History Matches
10
1.08
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.50
22
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.73
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.18
Competition & season17 signals
170
13
Matches
12
1.54
PPG
1.25
38.5%
Win rate
33.3%
38.5%
Draw rate
25.0%
23.1%
Loss rate
41.7%
53.8%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
23.1%
Over 2.5 rate
58.3%
15.4%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.33
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.09
13
Current Competition Matches
12
1.54
Current Competition PPG
1.25
0.38
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.25
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.06
Portability PPG Std
0.01
0.13
Portability PPG Range
0.01
88.54
Portability Score
98.82
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
35
Clean History Matches
33
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO24.34
PPG0.21
GF0.06
GA-0.09
PPG0.29
PPG0.65
PPG0.40
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate6.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate29.4%
Failed-to-score rate0.0%
History Matches2
Goals Mean0.06
Goals Std0.00
Scored 1+ rate7.6%
Scored 2+ rate-0.05
Scored 3+ rate0.00
Venue Goals Mean-0.12
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.62
History Matches2
Conceded Mean-0.09
Conceded Std0.15
Clean-sheet rate6.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.11
Conceded 3+ rate5.7%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.76
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.03
History Matches2
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std0.16
Stability score1.19
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.42
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate26.2%
Lead Points Retention0.22
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate-0.16
Trailing Win Rate-0.14
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.11
First Half Goals Against Mean0.14
Second Half Goals For Mean0.11
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.21
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG0.29
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.63
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.06
Portability PPG Range0.12
Portability Score-10.28
Rest days-2.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.42
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match0.55
Current Team ELO24.34
Current Opponent ELO-24.34
Current ELO Difference48.69
Expected score0.07
History Matches2
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance2.18
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.02

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Khujand

L
Ravshan1–0Khujand27 Oct · away
Pick: Ravshan 40% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Barki Tajik

D
Barki Tajik1–1Khosilot Farkhor30 Oct · home
Pick: Khosilot Farkhor 45% · missed
D
Parvoz0–0Barki Tajik23 Oct · away
Pick: Barki Tajik 43% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Khujand and Barki Tajik meet in Vysshaya Liga on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Khujand win 44.0%, draw 30.8%, Barki Tajik win 25.2%. The pick is Khujand win. Over 2.5 goals: 38.0%. Both teams to score: 42.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.