ScoreProb
Vysshaya Liga Tajikistan Round 22 2026

Ravshan vs Khatlon

Ravshan Home · Elo 1,518
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Khatlon Away · Elo 1,555
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Ravshan win
Ravshan winPick
37.9%
Draw
29.3%
Khatlon win
32.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.8%
No49.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.543.3%
Under 2.556.7%

How much we know

Ravshan history36 matches
Khatlon history36 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.9%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Ravshan are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Khatlon are rated 38 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,555 against 1,518. On rating alone Khatlon would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Khatlon score more

    1.19 goals a game over 36 matches for Ravshan, against 1.47 over 36 for Khatlon.

  • Defences are close

    Ravshan concede 0.97 a game, Khatlon 1.03.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    36% of Ravshan matches, against 39% for Khatlon. The model puts this match at 43% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 16 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Ravshan
Khatlon@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1517.7
ELO
1555.3
36
ELO · Matches
36
1517.7
Current Team ELO
1555.3
1555.3
Current Opponent ELO
1517.7
-37.60
Current ELO Difference
37.60
0.45
Expected score
0.55
36
History Matches
36
0.02
Residual Mean
0.08
51.49
Overperformance
54.84
-0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.12
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.20
1.20
Goals for per game
1.40
0.80
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.10
1.20
Goals for per game
1.50
1.10
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
1.33
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.28
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
1.04
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.80
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.76
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.30
Overall performance9 signals
90
36
Matches
36
1.47
PPG
1.75
36.1%
Win rate
44.4%
38.9%
Draw rate
41.7%
25.0%
Loss rate
13.9%
52.8%
Over 1.5 rate
80.6%
36.1%
Over 2.5 rate
38.9%
27.8%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.44
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.07
Venue performance10 signals
100
18
Matches
18
1.44
PPG
1.56
33.3%
Win rate
33.3%
44.4%
Draw rate
55.6%
22.2%
Loss rate
11.1%
44.4%
Over 1.5 rate
77.8%
38.9%
Over 2.5 rate
38.9%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
22.2%
1.26
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.73
18
History Matches
18
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.19
Goals for per game
1.47
61.1%
Scoring rate
80.6%
47.2%
BTTS rate
63.9%
1.22
Goals for per game
1.33
50.0%
Scoring rate
77.8%
44.4%
BTTS rate
72.2%
1.21
Goals for per game
1.43
57.1%
Scoring rate
71.4%
42.9%
BTTS rate
64.3%
36
History Matches
36
1.19
Goals Mean
1.47
1.20
Goals Std
1.01
61.1%
Scored 1+ rate
80.6%
38.9%
Scored 2+ rate
50.0%
13.9%
Scored 3+ rate
13.9%
1.22
Venue Goals Mean
1.33
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.97
Goals against per game
1.03
63.9%
Conceding rate
75.0%
0.78
Goals against per game
1.06
61.1%
Conceding rate
77.8%
1.07
Goals against per game
1.36
71.4%
Conceding rate
85.7%
36
History Matches
36
0.97
Conceded Mean
1.03
1.21
Conceded Std
0.76
13.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
25.0%
8.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
2.8%
0.78
Venue Conceded Mean
1.06
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
36.1%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
38.9%
Failed-to-score rate
19.4%
38.9%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
42.9%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
36.1%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
38.9%
Failed-to-score rate
19.4%
38.9%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
36.1%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
36
History Matches
36
0.98
Result entropy
0.91
1.44
Goal Difference Std
1.07
1.54
Stability score
9.03
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
34
Eligible Matches
35
10
Lead Matches
14
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
64.3%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.76
4
Trailing Matches
3
50.0%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
33.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
34
Halftime Coverage Matches
35
0.56
First Half Goals For Mean
0.74
0.32
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.34
0.71
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.71
0.65
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
83.92
Rest days
83.94
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
12
Normal Rest History Matches
12
1.50
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.08
23
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.48
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.52
Competition & season17 signals
170
14
Matches
14
1.29
PPG
1.29
35.7%
Win rate
28.6%
21.4%
Draw rate
42.9%
42.9%
Loss rate
28.6%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
85.7%
35.7%
Over 2.5 rate
42.9%
35.7%
Over 3.5 rate
35.7%
1.60
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.28
14
Current Competition Matches
14
1.29
Current Competition PPG
1.29
0.14
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.07
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.15
Portability PPG Std
0.38
0.31
Portability PPG Range
0.76
76.62
Portability Score
56.83
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
36
Clean History Matches
36
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-37.60
PPG-0.28
GF-0.28
GA-0.06
PPG0.00
PPG-0.11
PPG0.20
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate11.1%
Failed-to-score rate19.4%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate16.7%
Failed-to-score rate27.8%
History Matches0
Goals Mean-0.28
Goals Std0.18
Scored 1+ rate-0.19
Scored 2+ rate-0.11
Scored 3+ rate0.0%
Venue Goals Mean-0.11
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.04
History Matches0
Conceded Mean-0.06
Conceded Std0.45
Clean-sheet rate11.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.11
Conceded 3+ rate5.6%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.28
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.24
History Matches0
Result entropy0.07
Goal Difference Std0.37
Stability score-7.49
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.46
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate15.7%
Lead Points Retention0.10
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate16.7%
Trailing Win Rate-0.33
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.18
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.01
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.07
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.07
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.23
Portability PPG Range-0.45
Portability Score19.79
Rest days-0.02
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.58
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.04
Current Team ELO-37.60
Current Opponent ELO37.60
Current ELO Difference-75.19
Expected score-0.11
History Matches0
Residual Mean-0.05
Overperformance-3.35
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.05

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Ravshan

W
Ravshan1–0Khujand27 Oct · home
Pick: Ravshan 40% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Khatlon

D
Khatlon1–1Istaravshan29 Aug · home
Pick: Khatlon 67% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Ravshan and Khatlon meet in Vysshaya Liga on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Ravshan win 37.9%, draw 29.3%, Khatlon win 32.8%. The pick is Ravshan win. Over 2.5 goals: 43.3%. Both teams to score: 50.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.