ScoreProb
Botola 2 Morocco Round 7 2026

Ittihad Khemisset vs Chabab Mohammédia

Ittihad Khemisset Home · Elo 1,488
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Chabab Mohammédia Away · Elo 1,423
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Chabab Mohammédia win
Ittihad Khemisset win
31.8%
Draw
30.9%
Chabab Mohammédia winPick
37.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · the live score only: events are not provided for this competition by our data source
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes43.0%
No57.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.540.8%
Under 2.559.2%

How much we know

Ittihad Khemisset history1 match
Chabab Mohammédia history39 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 17:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.3%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Chabab Mohammédia are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Ittihad Khemisset are rated 65 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,488 against 1,423. On rating alone Ittihad Khemisset would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • Chabab Mohammédia score far more

    0.00 goals a game over 1 matches for Ittihad Khemisset, against 0.69 over 39 for Chabab Mohammédia.

  • Ittihad Khemisset concede fewer

    Ittihad Khemisset concede 1.00 a game, Chabab Mohammédia 1.54.

  • Chabab Mohammédia games more often go over 2.5 goals

    0% of Ittihad Khemisset matches, against 36% for Chabab Mohammédia. The model puts this match at 41% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 5 Jul 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Ittihad Khemisset
Chabab Mohammédia
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1487.8
ELO
1423.0
1
ELO · Matches
39
1487.8
Current Team ELO
1423.0
1423.0
Current Opponent ELO
1487.8
64.84
Current ELO Difference
-64.84
0.59
Expected score
0.41
1
History Matches
39
-0.52
Residual Mean
-0.09
47.54
Overperformance
43.79
-0.52
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.12
Recent form16 signals
160
1
Matches
5
0.00
PPG
0.80
0.00
Goals for per game
1.00
1.00
Goals against per game
1.60
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1
Matches
10
0.00
PPG
0.70
0.00
Goals for per game
0.80
1.00
Goals against per game
1.60
0.0%
Win rate
10.0%
0.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.80
—
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.25
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
—
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.11
0.00
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
—
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.17
Overall performance9 signals
90
1
Matches
39
0.00
PPG
0.87
0.0%
Win rate
20.5%
0.0%
Draw rate
25.6%
100.0%
Loss rate
53.8%
0.0%
Over 1.5 rate
56.4%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
35.9%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
15.4%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.56
Venue performance10 signals
100
1
Matches
19
0.00
PPG
0.68
0.0%
Win rate
10.5%
0.0%
Draw rate
36.8%
100.0%
Loss rate
52.6%
0.0%
Over 1.5 rate
42.1%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
15.8%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.94
1
History Matches
19
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.00
Goals for per game
0.69
0.0%
Scoring rate
56.4%
0.0%
BTTS rate
38.5%
0.00
Goals for per game
0.42
0.0%
Scoring rate
42.1%
0.0%
BTTS rate
31.6%
1
History Matches
39
0.00
Goals Mean
0.69
—
Goals Std
0.79
0.0%
Scored 1+ rate
56.4%
0.0%
Scored 2+ rate
7.7%
0.0%
Scored 3+ rate
2.6%
0.00
Venue Goals Mean
0.42
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.00
Goals against per game
1.54
100.0%
Conceding rate
74.4%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
73.7%
1
History Matches
39
1.00
Conceded Mean
1.54
—
Conceded Std
1.43
0.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
41.0%
0.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
23.1%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.6%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
43.6%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
26.3%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
57.9%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.6%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
43.6%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
26.3%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
57.9%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
1
History Matches
39
0.00
Result entropy
0.92
—
Goal Difference Std
1.56
100.0
Stability score
8.32
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
1
Eligible Matches
37
0
Lead Matches
6
—
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
—
Lead Points Retention
0.72
0
Trailing Matches
13
—
Non-loss rate
7.7%
—
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
1
Halftime Coverage Matches
37
0.00
First Half Goals For Mean
0.35
0.00
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
0.00
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.32
1.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.03
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
588.8
Rest days
125.1
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
0
Normal Rest History Matches
18
—
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.89
0
Long Rest History Matches
19
—
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.89
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
1
Competition Season Count
3
0
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.54
—
Portability PPG Range
1.08
—
Portability Score
48.11
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
1
Clean History Matches
39
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreGoals StdRecent 10 Goals StdConceded StdRecent 10 Conceded StdGoal Difference StdRecent 10 Goal Difference StdLead Win RateLead Points RetentionNon-loss rateTrailing Win RateCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per Match
ELO64.84
PPG-0.87
GF-0.69
GA-0.54
PPG-0.68
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-38
Clean-sheet rate-0.26
Failed-to-score rate56.4%
History Matches-18
Clean-sheet rate-0.26
Failed-to-score rate42.1%
History Matches-38
Goals Mean-0.69
Scored 1+ rate-0.56
Scored 2+ rate-0.08
Scored 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Goals Mean-0.42
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.80
History Matches-38
Conceded Mean-0.54
Clean-sheet rate-0.26
Conceded 2+ rate-0.41
Conceded 3+ rate-0.23
Venue Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.60
History Matches-38
Result entropy-0.92
Stability score91.68
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.86
Eligible Matches-36
Lead Matches-6
Trailing Matches-13
Halftime Coverage Matches-36
First Half Goals For Mean-0.35
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.57
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.32
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.03
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Rest days463.7
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches-18
Long Rest History Matches-19
Current Team ELO64.84
Current Opponent ELO-64.84
Current ELO Difference129.7
Expected score0.18
History Matches-38
Residual Mean-0.42
Overperformance3.75
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.39

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Ittihad Khemisset

D
Riadi Salmi1–1Ittihad Khemisset1 Nov · away
Pick: Riadi Salmi 58% · missed
W
Ittihad Khemisset2–1Mouloudia Oujda25 Oct · home
Pick: Draw 37% · missed
L
Olympique Safi1–0Ittihad Khemisset18 Oct · away
Pick: Olympique Safi 69% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Chabab Mohammédia

L
Chabab Mohammédia0–1Stade Marocain1 Nov · home
Pick: Stade Marocain 44% · hit
L
Chabab Ben Guerir2–0Chabab Mohammédia25 Oct · away
Pick: Chabab Ben Guerir 49% · hit
D
Chabab Mohammédia1–1Olympique Khouribga18 Oct · home
Pick: Chabab Mohammédia 51% · missed
L
Chabab Mohammédia0–1USM Oujda4 Oct · home
Pick: USM Oujda 42% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Ittihad Khemisset and Chabab Mohammédia meet in Botola 2 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Ittihad Khemisset win 31.8%, draw 30.9%, Chabab Mohammédia win 37.3%. The pick is Chabab Mohammédia win. Over 2.5 goals: 40.8%. Both teams to score: 43.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.