ScoreProb
Botola 2 Morocco Round 7 2026

USM Oujda vs Union Sportive Boujaad

USM Oujda Home · Elo 1,470
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Union Sportive Boujaad Away · Elo 1,499
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: USM Oujda win
USM Oujda winPick
50.2%
Draw
28.5%
Union Sportive Boujaad win
21.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · the live score only: events are not provided for this competition by our data source
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes44.8%
No55.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.541.4%
Under 2.558.6%

How much we know

USM Oujda history45 matches
Union Sportive Boujaad history31 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.2%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why USM Oujda are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Union Sportive Boujaad are rated 30 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,499 against 1,470. On rating alone Union Sportive Boujaad would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.02 goals a game over 45 matches for USM Oujda, against 0.97 over 31 for Union Sportive Boujaad.

  • Union Sportive Boujaad concede fewer

    USM Oujda concede 1.31 a game, Union Sportive Boujaad 0.68.

  • USM Oujda games more often go over 2.5 goals

    42% of USM Oujda matches, against 26% for Union Sportive Boujaad. The model puts this match at 41% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Jul 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
USM Oujda
Union Sportive Boujaad
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1469.9
ELO
1499.4
45
ELO · Matches
31
1469.9
Current Team ELO
1499.4
1499.4
Current Opponent ELO
1469.9
-29.58
Current ELO Difference
29.58
0.46
Expected score
0.54
45
History Matches
31
-0.03
Residual Mean
0.00
47.63
Overperformance
50.08
0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
2.20
0.80
Goals for per game
2.00
1.00
Goals against per game
0.40
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.50
0.80
Goals for per game
1.30
0.90
Goals against per game
0.70
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
0.87
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.49
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
0.83
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.64
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.22
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.62
Overall performance9 signals
90
45
Matches
31
1.11
PPG
1.32
26.7%
Win rate
29.0%
31.1%
Draw rate
45.2%
42.2%
Loss rate
25.8%
73.3%
Over 1.5 rate
48.4%
42.2%
Over 2.5 rate
25.8%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
12.9%
1.54
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.32
Venue performance10 signals
100
22
Matches
15
1.55
PPG
1.00
36.4%
Win rate
20.0%
45.5%
Draw rate
40.0%
18.2%
Loss rate
40.0%
72.7%
Over 1.5 rate
33.3%
40.9%
Over 2.5 rate
13.3%
22.7%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.60
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.24
22
History Matches
15
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.02
Goals for per game
0.97
57.8%
Scoring rate
51.6%
44.4%
BTTS rate
32.3%
1.27
Goals for per game
0.53
68.2%
Scoring rate
33.3%
50.0%
BTTS rate
13.3%
45
History Matches
31
1.02
Goals Mean
0.97
1.11
Goals Std
1.18
57.8%
Scored 1+ rate
51.6%
26.7%
Scored 2+ rate
29.0%
17.8%
Scored 3+ rate
9.7%
1.27
Venue Goals Mean
0.53
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.31
Goals against per game
0.68
73.3%
Conceding rate
54.8%
1.14
Goals against per game
0.60
68.2%
Conceding rate
46.7%
45
History Matches
31
1.31
Conceded Mean
0.68
1.03
Conceded Std
0.69
44.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
12.9%
11.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
0.0%
1.14
Venue Conceded Mean
0.60
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
26.7%
Clean-sheet rate
45.2%
42.2%
Failed-to-score rate
48.4%
31.8%
Clean-sheet rate
53.3%
31.8%
Failed-to-score rate
66.7%
26.7%
Clean-sheet rate
45.2%
42.2%
Failed-to-score rate
48.4%
31.8%
Clean-sheet rate
53.3%
31.8%
Failed-to-score rate
66.7%
26.7%
Clean-sheet rate
45.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
45
History Matches
31
0.98
Result entropy
0.97
1.54
Goal Difference Std
1.32
1.71
Stability score
2.82
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
44
Eligible Matches
30
11
Lead Matches
8
81.8%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.88
Lead Points Retention
0.79
15
Trailing Matches
7
20.0%
Non-loss rate
14.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
44
Halftime Coverage Matches
30
0.45
First Half Goals For Mean
0.43
0.57
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.40
0.59
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.53
0.77
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.27
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
125.0
Rest days
107.9
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
27
Normal Rest History Matches
16
1.15
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.44
16
Long Rest History Matches
14
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.07
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
1
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.20
Portability PPG Std
—
0.48
Portability PPG Range
—
71.19
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
45
Clean History Matches
31
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-29.58
PPG-0.21
GF0.05
GA0.63
PPG0.55
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches14
Clean-sheet rate-0.18
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate-0.22
Failed-to-score rate-0.35
History Matches14
Goals Mean0.05
Goals Std-0.07
Scored 1+ rate6.2%
Scored 2+ rate-0.02
Scored 3+ rate8.1%
Venue Goals Mean0.74
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.61
History Matches14
Conceded Mean0.63
Conceded Std0.34
Clean-sheet rate-0.18
Conceded 2+ rate31.5%
Conceded 3+ rate11.1%
Venue Conceded Mean0.54
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.19
History Matches14
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std0.22
Stability score-1.11
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.40
Eligible Matches14
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate6.8%
Lead Points Retention0.09
Trailing Matches8
Non-loss rate5.7%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches14
First Half Goals For Mean0.02
First Half Goals Against Mean0.17
Second Half Goals For Mean0.06
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.51
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Rest days17.13
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches11
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.29
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.07
Current Team ELO-29.58
Current Opponent ELO29.58
Current ELO Difference-59.16
Expected score-0.08
History Matches14
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-2.45
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.02

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

USM Oujda

D
KAC Kenitra1–1USM Oujda31 Oct · away
Pick: KAC Kenitra 38% · missed
W
USM Oujda2–1Riadi Salmi25 Oct · home
Pick: Riadi Salmi 35% · missed
L
Wydad Fès4–1USM Oujda18 Oct · away
Pick: Wydad Fès 39% · hit
W
Chabab Mohammédia0–1USM Oujda4 Oct · away
Pick: USM Oujda 42% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Union Sportive Boujaad

L
Union Sportive Boujaad2–3Olympique Dcheïra31 Oct · home
Pick: Olympique Dcheïra 40% · hit
L
El Massira2–1Union Sportive Boujaad25 Oct · away
Pick: El Massira 50% · hit
D
Union Sportive Boujaad1–1Yacoub El Mansour17 Oct · home
Pick: Yacoub El Mansour 40% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

USM Oujda and Union Sportive Boujaad meet in Botola 2 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: USM Oujda win 50.2%, draw 28.5%, Union Sportive Boujaad win 21.3%. The pick is USM Oujda win. Over 2.5 goals: 41.4%. Both teams to score: 44.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.