ScoreProb
K League 1 South Korea Relegation Group - 35 2026

Jeju United FC vs Gwangju FC

Jeju United FC Home · Elo 1,491
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Gwangju FC Away · Elo 1,430
Jeju World Cup Stadium, Seogwipo Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Jeju United FC win
Jeju United FC winPick
58.0%
Draw
21.3%
Gwangju FC win
20.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.6%
No52.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.551.1%
Under 2.548.9%

How much we know

Jeju United FC history69 matches
Gwangju FC history75 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 20 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 05:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (58.0%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Jeju United FC are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Jeju United FC are rated 61 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,491 against 1,430. On rating alone Jeju United FC would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • Jeju United FC score more

    1.09 goals a game over 69 matches for Jeju United FC, against 0.91 over 75 for Gwangju FC.

  • Jeju United FC concede fewer

    Jeju United FC concede 1.25 a game, Gwangju FC 1.44.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    43% of Jeju United FC matches, against 39% for Gwangju FC. The model puts this match at 51% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Jeju United FC
Gwangju FC
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1490.8
ELO
1430.1
69
ELO · Matches
75
1490.8
Current Team ELO
1430.1
1430.1
Current Opponent ELO
1490.8
60.71
Current ELO Difference
-60.71
0.59
Expected score
0.41
69
History Matches
75
0.00
Residual Mean
-0.04
49.89
Overperformance
46.64
0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
0.80
1.40
Goals for per game
0.40
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
0.90
1.60
Goals for per game
0.60
1.40
Goals against per game
1.20
30.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.60
0.92
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.49
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
0.92
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.98
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.20
Overall performance9 signals
90
69
Matches
75
1.17
PPG
1.19
30.4%
Win rate
30.7%
26.1%
Draw rate
26.7%
43.5%
Loss rate
42.7%
71.0%
Over 1.5 rate
64.0%
43.5%
Over 2.5 rate
38.7%
17.4%
Over 3.5 rate
21.3%
1.24
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.83
Venue performance10 signals
100
36
Matches
36
1.22
PPG
1.03
30.6%
Win rate
25.0%
30.6%
Draw rate
27.8%
38.9%
Loss rate
47.2%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
63.9%
44.4%
Over 2.5 rate
41.7%
16.7%
Over 3.5 rate
22.2%
1.26
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.01
36
History Matches
36
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.09
Goals for per game
0.91
73.9%
Scoring rate
61.3%
55.1%
BTTS rate
40.0%
1.17
Goals for per game
0.69
72.2%
Scoring rate
50.0%
52.8%
BTTS rate
36.1%
1.12
Goals for per game
0.50
76.0%
Scoring rate
37.5%
56.0%
BTTS rate
37.5%
69
History Matches
75
1.09
Goals Mean
0.91
0.86
Goals Std
0.88
73.9%
Scored 1+ rate
61.3%
27.5%
Scored 2+ rate
25.3%
7.2%
Scored 3+ rate
2.7%
1.17
Venue Goals Mean
0.69
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.25
Goals against per game
1.44
72.5%
Conceding rate
69.3%
1.25
Goals against per game
1.69
66.7%
Conceding rate
75.0%
1.04
Goals against per game
2.08
68.0%
Conceding rate
83.3%
69
History Matches
75
1.25
Conceded Mean
1.44
1.01
Conceded Std
1.51
39.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
36.0%
11.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.0%
1.25
Venue Conceded Mean
1.69
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
27.5%
Clean-sheet rate
30.7%
26.1%
Failed-to-score rate
38.7%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
27.8%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
32.0%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
24.0%
Failed-to-score rate
62.5%
27.5%
Clean-sheet rate
30.7%
26.1%
Failed-to-score rate
38.7%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
27.8%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
27.5%
Clean-sheet rate
30.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
69
History Matches
75
0.98
Result entropy
0.98
1.24
Goal Difference Std
1.83
2.17
Stability score
1.84
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
69
Eligible Matches
75
17
Lead Matches
16
70.6%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.76
Lead Points Retention
0.83
17
Trailing Matches
26
29.4%
Non-loss rate
15.4%
11.8%
Trailing Win Rate
7.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
69
Halftime Coverage Matches
75
0.42
First Half Goals For Mean
0.39
0.45
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.63
0.67
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.52
0.80
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.81
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
73.77
Rest days
75.77
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
10
Short Rest History Matches
8
0.60
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.75
42
Normal Rest History Matches
52
1.21
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.10
16
Long Rest History Matches
14
1.31
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.29
Competition & season17 signals
170
25
Matches
24
1.40
PPG
0.46
36.0%
Win rate
4.2%
32.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
32.0%
Loss rate
62.5%
72.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
45.8%
8.0%
Over 3.5 rate
29.2%
1.13
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.78
25
Current Competition Matches
24
1.40
Current Competition PPG
0.46
0.08
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.58
5
Competition Season Count
5
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.14
Portability PPG Std
0.71
0.28
Portability PPG Range
1.88
78.43
Portability Score
41.23
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
69
Clean History Matches
75
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO60.71
PPG-0.01
GF0.18
GA-0.19
PPG0.94
PPG0.19
PPG0.60
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate8.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.22
History Matches-6
Goals Mean0.18
Goals Std-0.02
Scored 1+ rate12.6%
Scored 2+ rate2.2%
Scored 3+ rate4.6%
Venue Goals Mean0.47
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.43
History Matches-6
Conceded Mean-0.19
Conceded Std-0.49
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Conceded 2+ rate3.1%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Conceded Mean-0.44
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.06
History Matches-6
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.59
Stability score0.33
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.12
Eligible Matches-6
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate-0.04
Lead Points Retention-0.07
Trailing Matches-9
Non-loss rate14.0%
Trailing Win Rate4.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches-6
First Half Goals For Mean0.03
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.18
Second Half Goals For Mean0.15
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.02
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG0.94
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.66
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std-0.58
Portability PPG Range-1.60
Portability Score37.20
Rest days-2.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.15
Normal Rest History Matches-10
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.12
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.03
Current Team ELO60.71
Current Opponent ELO-60.71
Current ELO Difference121.4
Expected score0.17
History Matches-6
Residual Mean0.04
Overperformance3.24
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.13

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Jeju United FC

D
Pohang Steelers1–1Jeju United FC1 Nov · away
Pick: Pohang Steelers 43% · missed
L
Incheon United3–1Jeju United FC24 Oct · away
Pick: Incheon United 49% · hit
L
Jeonbuk Motors3–2Jeju United FC18 Oct · away
Pick: Jeonbuk Motors 53% · hit
W
Gwangju FC0–1Jeju United FC9 Sep · away
Pick: Jeju United FC 42% · hit
W
Jeju United FC3–1Daejeon Citizen30 Aug · home
Pick: Jeju United FC 39% · hit

Gwangju FC

W
Bucheon FC 19950–3Gwangju FC24 Oct · away
Pick: Bucheon FC 1995 59% · missed
L
Daejeon Citizen3–2Gwangju FC18 Oct · away
Pick: Daejeon Citizen 57% · hit
L
Gwangju FC0–1Jeju United FC9 Sep · home
Pick: Jeju United FC 42% · hit
L
Gwangju FC2–5FC Seoul30 Aug · home
Pick: FC Seoul 53% · hit
D
Gangwon FC2–2Gwangju FC26 Aug · away
Pick: Gangwon FC 63% · missed

About this match

Jeju United FC and Gwangju FC meet in K League 1 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 05:00 UTC. The match is played at Jeju World Cup Stadium, Seogwipo. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Jeju United FC win 58.0%, draw 21.3%, Gwangju FC win 20.7%. The pick is Jeju United FC win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.1%. Both teams to score: 47.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.