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Division 2 Saudi Arabia Round 7 2026

Jerash vs Al Loa

Jerash Home · Elo 1,503
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Al Loa Away · Elo 1,567
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Al Loa win
Jerash win
35.2%
Draw
23.8%
Al Loa winPick
41.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes61.1%
No38.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.567.6%
Under 2.532.4%

How much we know

Jerash history13 matches
Al Loa history12 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 12:30 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.1%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Al Loa are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Al Loa are rated 64 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,567 against 1,503. On rating alone Al Loa would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    2.15 goals a game over 13 matches for Jerash, against 2.33 over 12 for Al Loa.

  • Al Loa concede fewer

    Jerash concede 2.08 a game, Al Loa 1.25.

  • Jerash games more often go over 2.5 goals

    85% of Jerash matches, against 75% for Al Loa. The model puts this match at 68% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 11 Apr 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Jerash
Al Loa@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1503.0
ELO
1567.1
13
ELO · Matches
12
1503.0
Current Team ELO
1567.1
1567.1
Current Opponent ELO
1503.0
-64.12
Current ELO Difference
64.12
0.41
Expected score
0.59
13
History Matches
12
0.03
Residual Mean
0.26
51.29
Overperformance
59.89
-0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.27
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
2.60
2.00
Goals for per game
2.60
2.00
Goals against per game
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
2.40
2.10
Goals for per game
2.30
2.20
Goals against per game
1.10
40.0%
Win rate
70.0%
2.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.30
1.37
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.19
2.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.47
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.22
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.56
1.45
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.25
Overall performance9 signals
90
13
Matches
12
1.54
PPG
2.33
46.2%
Win rate
66.7%
15.4%
Draw rate
33.3%
38.5%
Loss rate
0.0%
92.3%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
84.6%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
53.8%
Over 3.5 rate
58.3%
1.33
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.19
Venue performance10 signals
100
8
Matches
7
1.75
PPG
1.86
50.0%
Win rate
42.9%
25.0%
Draw rate
57.1%
25.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
87.5%
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
87.5%
Over 2.5 rate
71.4%
75.0%
Over 3.5 rate
57.1%
1.12
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.49
8
History Matches
7
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
2.15
Goals for per game
2.33
84.6%
Scoring rate
100.0%
84.6%
BTTS rate
66.7%
2.38
Goals for per game
2.00
87.5%
Scoring rate
100.0%
87.5%
BTTS rate
71.4%
13
History Matches
12
2.15
Goals Mean
2.33
1.23
Goals Std
1.11
84.6%
Scored 1+ rate
100.0%
76.9%
Scored 2+ rate
75.0%
38.5%
Scored 3+ rate
33.3%
2.38
Venue Goals Mean
2.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
2.08
Goals against per game
1.25
100.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
1.88
Goals against per game
1.57
100.0%
Conceding rate
71.4%
13
History Matches
12
2.08
Conceded Mean
1.25
1.33
Conceded Std
1.16
61.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
41.7%
23.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.3%
1.88
Venue Conceded Mean
1.57
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
15.4%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
15.4%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
13
History Matches
12
0.92
Result entropy
0.58
1.33
Goal Difference Std
1.19
7.85
Stability score
42.06
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
10
Eligible Matches
9
3
Lead Matches
4
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.67
Lead Points Retention
1.00
2
Trailing Matches
2
100.0%
Non-loss rate
100.0%
50.0%
Trailing Win Rate
50.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
10
Halftime Coverage Matches
9
0.90
First Half Goals For Mean
0.78
0.60
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.56
1.20
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.33
1.60
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.22
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
218.0
Rest days
219.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
9
Normal Rest History Matches
8
1.11
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.50
3
Long Rest History Matches
3
2.33
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.33
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
1
Competition Season Count
1
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
13
Clean History Matches
12
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-64.12
PPG-0.79
GF-0.18
GA0.83
PPG-0.11
PPG-1.20
PPG-1.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.33
Failed-to-score rate15.4%
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.29
Failed-to-score rate12.5%
History Matches1
Goals Mean-0.18
Goals Std0.13
Scored 1+ rate-0.15
Scored 2+ rate1.9%
Scored 3+ rate5.1%
Venue Goals Mean0.38
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.19
History Matches1
Conceded Mean0.83
Conceded Std0.16
Clean-sheet rate-0.33
Conceded 2+ rate19.9%
Conceded 3+ rate14.7%
Venue Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.25
History Matches1
Result entropy0.34
Goal Difference Std0.14
Stability score-34.21
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.30
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.20
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate-0.33
Lead Points Retention-0.33
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate0.0%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean0.12
First Half Goals Against Mean0.04
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.13
Second Half Goals Against Mean1.38
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Rest days-1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.39
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match0.00
Current Team ELO-64.12
Current Opponent ELO64.12
Current ELO Difference-128.2
Expected score-0.18
History Matches1
Residual Mean-0.23
Overperformance-8.60
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.32

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Jerash

W
Jerash4–0Al Qous29 Oct · home
Pick: Jerash 47% · hit
L
Jerash1–2Najran19 Oct · home
Pick: Najran 42% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Al Loa

W
Al Loa2–1Qilwah3 Nov · home
Pick: Al Loa 57% · hit
L
Al Shoalah3–1Al Loa17 Oct · away
Pick: Al Loa 44% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Jerash and Al Loa meet in Division 2 on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 12:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Jerash win 35.2%, draw 23.8%, Al Loa win 41.1%. The pick is Al Loa win. Over 2.5 goals: 67.6%. Both teams to score: 61.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.