ScoreProb
K4 League South Korea Round 26 2026

Jincheon vs Pyeongtaek Citizen

Jincheon Home · Elo 1,514
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Pyeongtaek Citizen Away · Elo 1,467
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Jincheon win
Jincheon winPick
74.2%
Draw
12.0%
Pyeongtaek Citizen win
13.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.6%
No44.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.575.0%
Under 2.525.0%

How much we know

Jincheon history4 matches
Pyeongtaek Citizen history5 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 20 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 05:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (74.2%). Picks in that band won 76.2% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 583 matches.

Why Jincheon are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Jincheon are rated 47 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,514 against 1,467. On rating alone Jincheon would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.75 goals a game over 4 matches for Jincheon, against 1.60 over 5 for Pyeongtaek Citizen.

  • Jincheon concede fewer

    Jincheon concede 1.50 a game, Pyeongtaek Citizen 2.60.

  • Pyeongtaek Citizen games more often go over 2.5 goals

    50% of Jincheon matches, against 80% for Pyeongtaek Citizen. The model puts this match at 75% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Jincheon
Pyeongtaek Citizen@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1514.5
ELO
1467.4
4
ELO · Matches
5
1514.5
Current Team ELO
1467.4
1467.4
Current Opponent ELO
1514.5
47.10
Current ELO Difference
-47.10
0.57
Expected score
0.43
4
History Matches
5
0.18
Residual Mean
-0.31
52.99
Overperformance
43.84
0.18
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.31
Recent form16 signals
160
4
Matches
5
1.75
PPG
0.60
1.75
Goals for per game
1.60
1.50
Goals against per game
2.60
50.0%
Win rate
20.0%
4
Matches
5
1.75
PPG
0.60
1.75
Goals for per game
1.60
1.50
Goals against per game
2.60
50.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.75
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.24
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.60
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.62
0.95
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.46
2.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
3.69
Overall performance9 signals
90
4
Matches
5
1.75
PPG
0.60
50.0%
Win rate
20.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
80.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
80.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
80.0%
2.17
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.69
Venue performance10 signals
100
2
Matches
2
2.00
PPG
1.50
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
4.00
2
History Matches
2
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.75
Goals for per game
1.60
100.0%
Scoring rate
60.0%
75.0%
BTTS rate
40.0%
2.50
Goals for per game
3.50
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
2.00
Goals for per game
0.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
0.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
0.0%
4
History Matches
5
1.75
Goals Mean
1.60
1.30
Goals Std
2.24
100.0%
Scored 1+ rate
60.0%
25.0%
Scored 2+ rate
20.0%
25.0%
Scored 3+ rate
20.0%
2.50
Venue Goals Mean
3.50
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.50
Goals against per game
2.60
75.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.50
100.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
1.67
Goals against per game
3.50
66.7%
Conceding rate
100.0%
4
History Matches
5
1.50
Conceded Mean
2.60
1.50
Conceded Std
1.62
25.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
80.0%
25.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
60.0%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.50
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
4
History Matches
5
0.95
Result entropy
0.46
2.17
Goal Difference Std
3.69
5.36
Stability score
54.45
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
4
Eligible Matches
5
3
Lead Matches
1
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.78
Lead Points Retention
1.00
1
Trailing Matches
4
0.0%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
4
Halftime Coverage Matches
5
1.00
First Half Goals For Mean
0.80
0.50
First Half Goals Against Mean
2.00
0.75
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.80
1.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.60
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
77.88
Rest days
104.8
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
0
Normal Rest History Matches
1
—
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.00
3
Long Rest History Matches
3
2.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Portability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
3
Matches
2
2.00
PPG
0.00
66.7%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
2.49
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
3
Current Competition Matches
2
2.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-3.50
2
Competition Season Count
3
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
0
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
4
Clean History Matches
5
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per Match
ELO47.10
PPG1.15
GF0.15
GA-1.10
PPG2.00
PPG0.50
PPG1.15
PPG1.15
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate5.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.40
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.50
Failed-to-score rate0.0%
History Matches-1
Goals Mean0.15
Goals Std-0.95
Scored 1+ rate40.0%
Scored 2+ rate5.0%
Scored 3+ rate5.0%
Venue Goals Mean-1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.15
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.95
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean-1.10
Conceded Std-0.12
Clean-sheet rate5.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.55
Conceded 3+ rate-0.35
Venue Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.12
History Matches-1
Result entropy0.49
Goal Difference Std-1.52
Stability score-49.09
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.49
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.52
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate-0.33
Lead Points Retention-0.22
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate0.0%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean0.20
First Half Goals Against Mean-1.50
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.05
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.40
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean3.83
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days-26.92
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match2.00
Current Team ELO47.10
Current Opponent ELO-47.10
Current ELO Difference94.20
Expected score0.13
History Matches-1
Residual Mean0.49
Overperformance9.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.49

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Jincheon

W
Jincheon1–0Jinju Citizen31 Oct · home
Pick: Jinju Citizen 50% · missed
W
Jincheon4–0Jungnang Chorus Mustang4 Oct · home
Pick: Jincheon 40% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Pyeongtaek Citizen

W
Pyeongchang United0–2Pyeongtaek Citizen31 Oct · away
Pick: Pyeongchang United 62% · missed
W
Pyeongtaek Citizen7–1Sejong SA4 Oct · home
Pick: Sejong SA 66% · missed
L
Pyeongtaek Citizen2–3Gijang United29 Aug · home
Pick: Gijang United 56% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Jincheon and Pyeongtaek Citizen meet in K4 League on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 05:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Jincheon win 74.2%, draw 12.0%, Pyeongtaek Citizen win 13.7%. The pick is Jincheon win. Over 2.5 goals: 75.0%. Both teams to score: 55.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.