ScoreProb
K4 League South Korea Round 26 2026

Geoje Citizen vs Geumsan Insam

Geoje Citizen Home · Elo 1,508
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Geumsan Insam Away · Elo 1,504
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Geoje Citizen win
Geoje Citizen winPick
41.7%
Draw
23.9%
Geumsan Insam win
34.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes57.9%
No42.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.565.6%
Under 2.534.4%

How much we know

Geoje Citizen history6 matches
Geumsan Insam history4 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 20 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 05:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.7%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Geoje Citizen are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,508 against 1,504. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.50 goals a game over 6 matches for Geoje Citizen, against 1.50 over 4 for Geumsan Insam.

  • Defences are close

    Geoje Citizen concede 1.67 a game, Geumsan Insam 1.75.

  • Geumsan Insam games more often go over 2.5 goals

    67% of Geoje Citizen matches, against 100% for Geumsan Insam. The model puts this match at 66% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Geoje Citizen
Geumsan Insam@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1508.2
ELO
1504.1
6
ELO · Matches
4
1508.2
Current Team ELO
1504.1
1504.1
Current Opponent ELO
1508.2
4.09
Current ELO Difference
-4.09
0.51
Expected score
0.49
6
History Matches
4
0.01
Residual Mean
0.01
50.16
Overperformance
50.09
0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
4
1.40
PPG
1.50
1.80
Goals for per game
1.50
2.00
Goals against per game
1.75
40.0%
Win rate
50.0%
6
Matches
4
1.33
PPG
1.50
1.50
Goals for per game
1.50
1.67
Goals against per game
1.75
33.3%
Win rate
50.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.12
1.67
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.75
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.30
1.00
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.63
2.73
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.38
Overall performance9 signals
90
6
Matches
4
1.33
PPG
1.50
33.3%
Win rate
50.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
0.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
50.0%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
2.73
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.38
Venue performance10 signals
100
1
Matches
3
3.00
PPG
2.00
100.0%
Win rate
66.7%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
33.3%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.49
1
History Matches
3
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.50
Goals for per game
1.50
66.7%
Scoring rate
75.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
4.00
Goals for per game
1.67
100.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
0.0%
BTTS rate
33.3%
2.00
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
66.7%
6
History Matches
4
1.50
Goals Mean
1.50
1.50
Goals Std
1.12
66.7%
Scored 1+ rate
75.0%
33.3%
Scored 2+ rate
50.0%
33.3%
Scored 3+ rate
25.0%
4.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.67
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.67
Goals against per game
1.75
66.7%
Conceding rate
75.0%
0.00
Goals against per game
1.33
0.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
2.50
Goals against per game
1.33
100.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
6
History Matches
4
1.67
Conceded Mean
1.75
1.70
Conceded Std
1.30
33.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
50.0%
33.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
50.0%
0.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.33
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
6
History Matches
4
1.00
Result entropy
0.63
2.73
Goal Difference Std
2.38
0.00
Stability score
36.91
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
6
Eligible Matches
4
2
Lead Matches
2
50.0%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.67
Lead Points Retention
1.00
2
Trailing Matches
2
0.0%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
6
Halftime Coverage Matches
4
0.67
First Half Goals For Mean
1.25
0.67
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
0.83
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.25
1.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.75
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
105.9
Rest days
76.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
2
Normal Rest History Matches
1
1.50
Normal Rest Points Per Match
3.00
3
Long Rest History Matches
2
1.33
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.50
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Portability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
2
Matches
3
1.50
PPG
2.00
50.0%
Win rate
66.7%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
33.3%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
2.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.05
2
Current Competition Matches
3
1.50
Current Competition PPG
2.00
-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.67
3
Competition Season Count
2
0
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
6
Clean History Matches
4
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO4.09
PPG-0.17
GF0.00
GA-0.08
PPG-0.50
PPG1.00
PPG-0.10
PPG-0.17
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate8.3%
Failed-to-score rate8.3%
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate66.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.33
History Matches2
Goals Mean0.00
Goals Std0.38
Scored 1+ rate-0.08
Scored 2+ rate-0.17
Scored 3+ rate8.3%
Venue Goals Mean2.33
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.38
History Matches2
Conceded Mean-0.08
Conceded Std0.40
Clean-sheet rate8.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.17
Conceded 3+ rate-0.17
Venue Conceded Mean-1.33
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.08
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.40
History Matches2
Result entropy0.37
Goal Difference Std0.35
Stability score-36.91
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.37
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.35
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate-0.50
Lead Points Retention-0.33
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate0.0%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.58
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.33
Second Half Goals For Mean0.58
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.25
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.17
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Rest days29.02
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.50
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.17
Current Team ELO4.09
Current Opponent ELO-4.09
Current ELO Difference8.18
Expected score0.01
History Matches2
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.00

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Geoje Citizen

L
Gijang United2–1Geoje Citizen31 Oct · away
Pick: Geoje Citizen 48% · missed
W
Geoje Citizen4–0Jungnang Chorus Mustang25 Oct · home
Pick: Jungnang Chorus Mustang 41% · missed
W
Geoje Citizen1–0Haman17 Oct · home
Pick: Geoje Citizen 43% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Geumsan Insam

D
Geumsan Insam2–2Sejong SA31 Oct · home
Pick: Geumsan Insam 41% · missed
D
Geumsan Insam1–1Jinju Citizen30 Aug · home
Pick: Jinju Citizen 55% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Geoje Citizen and Geumsan Insam meet in K4 League on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 05:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Geoje Citizen win 41.7%, draw 23.9%, Geumsan Insam win 34.4%. The pick is Geoje Citizen win. Over 2.5 goals: 65.6%. Both teams to score: 57.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.