ScoreProb
K4 League South Korea Round 26 2026

Jinju Citizen vs Haman

Jinju Citizen Home · Elo 1,532
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Haman Away · Elo 1,499
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Jinju Citizen win
Jinju Citizen winPick
56.8%
Draw
27.0%
Haman win
16.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes38.8%
No61.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.535.2%
Under 2.564.8%

How much we know

Jinju Citizen history8 matches
Haman history3 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 20 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 05:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (56.8%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Jinju Citizen are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Jinju Citizen are rated 33 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,532 against 1,499. On rating alone Jinju Citizen would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Jinju Citizen score far more

    1.50 goals a game over 8 matches for Jinju Citizen, against 0.67 over 3 for Haman.

  • Haman concede fewer

    Jinju Citizen concede 0.75 a game, Haman 0.67.

  • Haman games more often go over 2.5 goals

    25% of Jinju Citizen matches, against 33% for Haman. The model puts this match at 35% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Jinju Citizen
Haman@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1531.9
ELO
1498.6
8
ELO · Matches
3
1531.9
Current Team ELO
1498.6
1498.6
Current Opponent ELO
1531.9
33.28
Current ELO Difference
-33.28
0.55
Expected score
0.45
8
History Matches
3
0.15
Residual Mean
0.01
54.40
Overperformance
50.10
0.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
3
2.00
PPG
1.33
2.00
Goals for per game
0.67
1.00
Goals against per game
0.67
60.0%
Win rate
33.3%
8
Matches
3
1.88
PPG
1.33
1.50
Goals for per game
0.67
0.75
Goals against per game
0.67
50.0%
Win rate
33.3%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.67
1.12
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.47
0.75
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.67
0.97
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.94
0.89
Recent 10 Result Entropy
1.00
1.48
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.82
Overall performance9 signals
90
8
Matches
3
1.88
PPG
1.33
50.0%
Win rate
33.3%
37.5%
Draw rate
33.3%
12.5%
Loss rate
33.3%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
33.3%
25.0%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.48
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.82
Venue performance10 signals
100
2
Matches
1
2.00
PPG
0.00
50.0%
Win rate
0.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
2
History Matches
1
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.50
Goals for per game
0.67
87.5%
Scoring rate
66.7%
50.0%
BTTS rate
33.3%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
3.00
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
8
History Matches
3
1.50
Goals Mean
0.67
1.12
Goals Std
0.47
87.5%
Scored 1+ rate
66.7%
37.5%
Scored 2+ rate
0.0%
12.5%
Scored 3+ rate
0.0%
1.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.75
Goals against per game
0.67
50.0%
Conceding rate
33.3%
0.50
Goals against per game
2.00
50.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
0.50
Goals against per game
1.00
50.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
8
History Matches
3
0.75
Conceded Mean
0.67
0.97
Conceded Std
0.94
12.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
33.3%
12.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
0.0%
0.50
Venue Conceded Mean
2.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
66.7%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
66.7%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
66.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
8
History Matches
3
0.89
Result entropy
1.00
1.48
Goal Difference Std
0.82
11.31
Stability score
0.00
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
7
Eligible Matches
3
3
Lead Matches
0
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
—
0.67
Lead Points Retention
—
2
Trailing Matches
1
100.0%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
7
Halftime Coverage Matches
3
0.71
First Half Goals For Mean
0.00
0.43
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.33
0.86
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.43
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.33
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Normal Rest Points Per Match
77.83
Rest days
104.8
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
0
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
0
Normal Rest History Matches
0
5
Long Rest History Matches
2
1.60
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.50
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Portability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
2
Matches
2
3.00
PPG
1.50
100.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
3.00
Current Competition PPG
1.50
2.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
3
Competition Season Count
2
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
0
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
8
Clean History Matches
3
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreLead Win RateLead Points RetentionPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per Match
ELO33.28
PPG0.54
GF0.83
GA0.08
PPG1.50
PPG2.00
PPG0.67
PPG0.54
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Failed-to-score rate-0.21
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate50.0%
Failed-to-score rate0.0%
History Matches5
Goals Mean0.83
Goals Std0.65
Scored 1+ rate20.8%
Scored 2+ rate37.5%
Scored 3+ rate12.5%
Venue Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.83
Recent 10 Goals Std0.65
History Matches5
Conceded Mean0.08
Conceded Std0.03
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Conceded 2+ rate-0.21
Conceded 3+ rate12.5%
Venue Conceded Mean-1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.08
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.03
History Matches5
Result entropy-0.11
Goal Difference Std0.66
Stability score11.31
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.11
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.66
Eligible Matches4
Lead Matches3
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate100.0%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches4
First Half Goals For Mean0.71
First Half Goals Against Mean0.10
Second Half Goals For Mean0.19
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.10
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.50
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days-26.96
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest History Matches0
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.10
Current Team ELO33.28
Current Opponent ELO-33.28
Current ELO Difference66.55
Expected score0.10
History Matches5
Residual Mean0.15
Overperformance4.29
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.15

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Jinju Citizen

L
Jincheon1–0Jinju Citizen31 Oct · away
Pick: Jinju Citizen 50% · missed
D
Geumsan Insam1–1Jinju Citizen30 Aug · away
Pick: Jinju Citizen 55% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Haman

W
Haman2–0Seosan Pioneer1 Nov · home
Pick: Haman 53% · hit
L
Geoje Citizen1–0Haman17 Oct · away
Pick: Geoje Citizen 43% · hit
L
Haman2–3Pyeongchang United29 Aug · home
Pick: Haman 49% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Jinju Citizen and Haman meet in K4 League on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 05:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Jinju Citizen win 56.8%, draw 27.0%, Haman win 16.2%. The pick is Jinju Citizen win. Over 2.5 goals: 35.2%. Both teams to score: 38.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.