Kabwe Warriors vs Roan United
Kabwe Warriors
Full time
1–1
Wed 4 Nov · 13:00 UTC
Roan United
What we said before kickoff Model pick: Kabwe Warriors win
Kabwe Warriors winPick
63.2%
Draw
23.1%
Roan United win
13.7%
No verdict for this match
ScoreProb only grades predictions that were published before kickoff, and none was published for this match.
Both teams to score
Yes44.5%
No55.5%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.541.4%
Under 2.558.6%
How much we know
Kabwe Warriors history47 matches
Roan United history0 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Life of this match
Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
- Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
- Kickoff4 Nov · 13:00 UTC
- Full time: 1–1
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
Share this result
A picture made for this match: teams, our probabilities and the verified stamp. Works in chats and on social.
The card keeps the pre-match numbers. A miss is shared as plainly as a hit.
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (63.2%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.
Why Kabwe Warriors are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,510 against 1,500. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Kabwe Warriors
Roan United
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1510.1
ELO
1500.0
47
ELO · Matches
0
1510.1
Current Team ELO
1500.0
1500.0
Current Opponent ELO
1510.1
10.10
Current ELO Difference
-10.10
0.51
Expected score
0.49
47
History Matches
0
0.01
Residual Mean
—
50.60
Overperformance
—
-0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
—
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
0
1.00
PPG
—
0.60
Goals for per game
—
0.80
Goals against per game
—
20.0%
Win rate
—
10
Matches
0
1.20
PPG
—
0.80
Goals for per game
—
1.10
Goals against per game
—
30.0%
Win rate
—
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
—
0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std
—
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
—
1.14
Recent 10 Conceded Std
—
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
—
1.42
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
—
Overall performance9 signals 90
47
Matches
0
1.38
PPG
—
36.2%
Win rate
—
29.8%
Draw rate
—
34.0%
Loss rate
—
48.9%
Over 1.5 rate
—
21.3%
Over 2.5 rate
—
12.8%
Over 3.5 rate
—
1.35
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
Venue performance10 signals 100
23
Matches
0
1.78
PPG
—
52.2%
Win rate
—
21.7%
Draw rate
—
26.1%
Loss rate
—
39.1%
Over 1.5 rate
—
17.4%
Over 2.5 rate
—
13.0%
Over 3.5 rate
—
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
23
History Matches
0
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.87
Goals for per game
—
61.7%
Scoring rate
—
29.8%
BTTS rate
—
1.00
Goals for per game
—
65.2%
Scoring rate
—
17.4%
BTTS rate
—
47
History Matches
0
0.87
Goals Mean
—
0.89
Goals Std
—
61.7%
Scored 1+ rate
—
19.1%
Scored 2+ rate
—
4.3%
Scored 3+ rate
—
1.00
Venue Goals Mean
—
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.83
Goals against per game
—
53.2%
Conceding rate
—
0.57
Goals against per game
—
39.1%
Conceding rate
—
47
History Matches
0
0.83
Conceded Mean
—
0.95
Conceded Std
—
21.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
—
8.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
—
0.57
Venue Conceded Mean
—
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
46.8%
Clean-sheet rate
—
38.3%
Failed-to-score rate
—
60.9%
Clean-sheet rate
—
34.8%
Failed-to-score rate
—
46.8%
Clean-sheet rate
—
38.3%
Failed-to-score rate
—
60.9%
Clean-sheet rate
—
34.8%
Failed-to-score rate
—
46.8%
Clean-sheet rate
—
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
47
History Matches
0
1.00
Result entropy
—
1.35
Goal Difference Std
—
0.29
Stability score
—
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
46
Eligible Matches
0
14
Lead Matches
0
78.6%
Lead Win Rate
—
0.86
Lead Points Retention
—
10
Trailing Matches
0
0.0%
Non-loss rate
—
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
—
Goal timing5 signals 50
46
Halftime Coverage Matches
0
0.41
First Half Goals For Mean
—
0.39
First Half Goals Against Mean
—
0.46
Second Half Goals For Mean
—
0.46
Second Half Goals Against Mean
—
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
164.0
Rest days
—
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
0
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
23
Normal Rest History Matches
0
1.22
Normal Rest Points Per Match
—
20
Long Rest History Matches
0
1.40
Long Rest Points Per Match
—
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
0
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
0
0.21
Portability PPG Std
—
0.42
Portability PPG Range
—
70.27
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
47
Clean History Matches
0
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGGFGAPPGPPGPPGPPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateGoals MeanGoals StdScored 1+ rateScored 2+ rateScored 3+ rateVenue Goals MeanRecent 10 Goals MeanRecent 10 Goals StdConceded MeanConceded StdClean-sheet rateConceded 2+ rateConceded 3+ rateVenue Conceded MeanRecent 10 Conceded MeanRecent 10 Conceded StdResult entropyGoal Difference StdStability scoreRecent 10 Result EntropyRecent 10 Goal Difference StdLead Win RateLead Points RetentionNon-loss rateTrailing Win RateFirst Half Goals For MeanFirst Half Goals Against MeanSecond Half Goals For MeanSecond Half Goals Against MeanCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreRest daysShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per MatchResidual MeanOverperformanceRecent 10 Residual Mean
ELO10.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches47
History Matches23
History Matches47
History Matches47
History Matches47
Eligible Matches46
Lead Matches14
Trailing Matches10
Halftime Coverage Matches46
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest History Matches23
Long Rest History Matches20
Current Team ELO10.10
Current Opponent ELO-10.10
Current ELO Difference20.19
Expected score0.03
History Matches47
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Kabwe Warriors
D
Green Eagles0–0Kabwe Warriors31 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 44% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Roan United
D
Mutondo Stars1–1Roan United1 Nov · away
Pick: Mutondo Stars 60% · missed L
Green Eagles1–0Roan United17 Oct · away
Pick: Green Eagles 64% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Match report
Kabwe Warriors and Roan United finished 1–1 in Super League on Wednesday 4 November 2026. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC, before kickoff: Kabwe Warriors win 63.2%, draw 23.1%, Roan United win 13.7%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.