ScoreProb
Super League Zambia Round 7 2026

Zanaco vs Man Utd Zambia Academy

Zanaco Home · Elo 1,500
Full time
2–2
Half time 1–1
Wed 4 Nov · 13:00 UTC
Man Utd Zambia Academy Away · Elo 1,523
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Pick published 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC, before kickoff
What we said before kickoff Result: Draw
Zanaco win
33.3%
DrawPick Result
38.0%
Man Utd Zambia Academy win
28.7%

How our picks did

Based on the final score. It joins the public record at the next nightly settlement.

1 of 3 hit
Match result
Our pickDraw · 38.0%
What happenedDraw · we gave it 38.0%
Hit
Over 2.5 goals
Our pickUnder · 66.3%
What happenedOver · 4 goals
Missed
Both teams to score
Our pickNo · 54.4%
What happenedYes · 2–2
Missed

How surprising was it?

Result: Draw. In our numbers it ranked first of the three.

38%
chance we gave it
0%50%100%
1 in 2.6
on average
A pick at 38% is expected to miss about 6 times in 10. One match does not judge a model. The record across every settled match does.
See the full record

Both teams to score

Yes45.6%
No54.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.533.7%
Under 2.566.3%

How much we know

Zanaco history48 matches
Man Utd Zambia Academy history47 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Life of this match

Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
  3. Kickoff
    4 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full time: 2–2One of our three picks hit
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

Share this result

A picture made for this match: teams, our probabilities and the verified stamp. Works in chats and on social.

The card keeps the pre-match numbers. A miss is shared as plainly as a hit.
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How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.0%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why a draw is the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,500 against 1,523. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Man Utd Zambia Academy score more

    0.94 goals a game over 48 matches for Zanaco, against 1.09 over 47 for Man Utd Zambia Academy.

  • Man Utd Zambia Academy concede fewer

    Zanaco concede 1.02 a game, Man Utd Zambia Academy 0.89.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    25% of Zanaco matches, against 32% for Man Utd Zambia Academy. The model puts this match at 34% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Zanaco
Man Utd Zambia Academy
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1500.4
ELO
1522.5
48
ELO · Matches
47
1500.4
Current Team ELO
1522.5
1522.5
Current Opponent ELO
1500.4
-22.08
Current ELO Difference
22.08
0.47
Expected score
0.53
48
History Matches
47
0.00
Residual Mean
0.02
50.03
Overperformance
51.53
-0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.17
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.80
0.40
Goals for per game
1.20
1.60
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
2.00
0.70
Goals for per game
1.10
1.40
Goals against per game
0.80
30.0%
Win rate
60.0%
0.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
0.78
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.94
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.87
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.35
Overall performance9 signals
90
48
Matches
47
1.44
PPG
1.47
41.7%
Win rate
40.4%
18.8%
Draw rate
25.5%
39.6%
Loss rate
34.0%
56.3%
Over 1.5 rate
53.2%
25.0%
Over 2.5 rate
31.9%
12.5%
Over 3.5 rate
10.6%
1.64
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.35
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
24
1.92
PPG
1.42
58.3%
Win rate
41.7%
16.7%
Draw rate
16.7%
25.0%
Loss rate
41.7%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
54.2%
29.2%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
12.5%
Over 3.5 rate
12.5%
1.44
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.43
24
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.94
Goals for per game
1.09
62.5%
Scoring rate
59.6%
29.2%
BTTS rate
38.3%
1.33
Goals for per game
1.13
83.3%
Scoring rate
62.5%
37.5%
BTTS rate
37.5%
48
History Matches
47
0.94
Goals Mean
1.09
0.94
Goals Std
1.20
62.5%
Scored 1+ rate
59.6%
22.9%
Scored 2+ rate
34.0%
6.3%
Scored 3+ rate
6.4%
1.33
Venue Goals Mean
1.13
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.02
Goals against per game
0.89
58.3%
Conceding rate
63.8%
0.79
Goals against per game
0.96
50.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
48
History Matches
47
1.02
Conceded Mean
0.89
1.20
Conceded Std
0.88
29.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
19.1%
6.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
4.3%
0.79
Venue Conceded Mean
0.96
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
41.7%
Clean-sheet rate
36.2%
37.5%
Failed-to-score rate
40.4%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
37.5%
41.7%
Clean-sheet rate
36.2%
37.5%
Failed-to-score rate
40.4%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
37.5%
41.7%
Clean-sheet rate
36.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
48
History Matches
47
0.95
Result entropy
0.98
1.64
Goal Difference Std
1.35
4.84
Stability score
1.55
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
48
Eligible Matches
46
10
Lead Matches
11
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
81.8%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.88
12
Trailing Matches
11
16.7%
Non-loss rate
9.1%
8.3%
Trailing Win Rate
9.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
48
Halftime Coverage Matches
46
0.40
First Half Goals For Mean
0.52
0.46
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.48
0.54
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.59
0.56
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.43
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
164.1
Rest days
164.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
3
2.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
24
Normal Rest History Matches
27
1.54
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.26
20
Long Rest History Matches
16
1.10
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.63
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.06
Portability PPG Std
0.06
0.11
Portability PPG Range
0.12
89.81
Portability Score
89.66
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
48
Clean History Matches
47
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-22.08
PPG-0.03
GF-0.15
GA0.13
PPG0.50
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate5.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate16.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.21
History Matches1
Goals Mean-0.15
Goals Std-0.26
Scored 1+ rate2.9%
Scored 2+ rate-0.11
Scored 3+ rate0.00
Venue Goals Mean0.21
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.16
History Matches1
Conceded Mean0.13
Conceded Std0.32
Clean-sheet rate5.5%
Conceded 2+ rate10.0%
Conceded 3+ rate2.0%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.17
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.93
History Matches1
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std0.30
Stability score3.28
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.71
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate-0.02
Lead Points Retention-0.05
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate7.6%
Trailing Win Rate-0.01
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.13
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.05
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.13
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.00
Portability PPG Range0.00
Portability Score0.16
Rest days0.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.33
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.28
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.53
Current Team ELO-22.08
Current Opponent ELO22.08
Current ELO Difference-44.16
Expected score-0.06
History Matches1
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-1.50
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.27

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Zanaco

W
Trident2–3Zanaco31 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 40% · missed
W
Zanaco3–0Kansanshi Dynamos24 Oct · home
Pick: Zanaco 46% · hit
D
Zanaco1–1NAPSA Stars17 Oct · home
Pick: Zanaco 41% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Man Utd Zambia Academy

D
Nchanga Rangers0–0Man Utd Zambia Academy31 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 37% · hit
W
Man Utd Zambia Academy1–0Power Dynamos24 Oct · home
Pick: Power Dynamos 39% · missed
W
Man Utd Zambia Academy1–0Makeni All Stars17 Oct · home
Pick: Man Utd Zambia Academy 64% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Match report

Zanaco and Man Utd Zambia Academy finished 2–2 in Super League on Wednesday 4 November 2026. It was 1–1 at half time. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC, before kickoff: Zanaco win 33.3%, draw 38.0%, Man Utd Zambia Academy win 28.7%. One of the three picks hit.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.