ScoreProb
Super League Zambia Round 7 2026

Nkana vs Kansanshi Dynamos

Nkana Home · Elo 1,506
Full time
1–0
Half time 0–0
Wed 4 Nov · 13:00 UTC
Kansanshi Dynamos Away · Elo 1,523
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Pick published 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC, before kickoff
What we said before kickoff Result: Nkana win
Nkana winPick Result
51.3%
Draw
28.2%
Kansanshi Dynamos win
20.5%

How our picks did

Based on the final score. It joins the public record at the next nightly settlement.

3 of 3 hit
Match result
Our pickNkana win · 51.3%
What happenedNkana win · we gave it 51.3%
Hit
Over 2.5 goals
Our pickUnder · 67.5%
What happenedUnder · 1 goal
Hit
Both teams to score
Our pickNo · 57.5%
What happenedNo · 1–0
Hit

How surprising was it?

Result: Nkana win. In our numbers it ranked first of the three.

51%
chance we gave it
0%50%100%
1 in 2.0
on average
A pick at 51% is expected to miss about 5 times in 10. One match does not judge a model. The record across every settled match does.
See the full record

Both teams to score

Yes42.5%
No57.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.532.5%
Under 2.567.5%

How much we know

Nkana history47 matches
Kansanshi Dynamos history32 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Life of this match

Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
  3. Kickoff
    4 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full time: 1–0All three of our picks hit
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

Share this result

A picture made for this match: teams, our probabilities and the verified stamp. Works in chats and on social.

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How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (51.3%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Nkana are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,506 against 1,523. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Nkana score more

    1.00 goals a game over 47 matches for Nkana, against 0.84 over 32 for Kansanshi Dynamos.

  • Kansanshi Dynamos concede fewer

    Nkana concede 0.89 a game, Kansanshi Dynamos 0.72.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    21% of Nkana matches, against 16% for Kansanshi Dynamos. The model puts this match at 33% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Nkana
Kansanshi Dynamos
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1505.9
ELO
1522.6
47
ELO · Matches
32
1505.9
Current Team ELO
1522.6
1522.6
Current Opponent ELO
1505.9
-16.76
Current ELO Difference
16.76
0.48
Expected score
0.52
47
History Matches
32
0.01
Residual Mean
0.04
50.52
Overperformance
52.21
-0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.15
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.60
0.60
Goals for per game
0.40
0.80
Goals against per game
0.20
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.80
0.80
Goals for per game
1.10
0.90
Goals against per game
0.60
20.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
0.87
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.14
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.60
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.66
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
0.94
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.12
Overall performance9 signals
90
47
Matches
32
1.43
PPG
1.34
36.2%
Win rate
31.3%
34.0%
Draw rate
40.6%
29.8%
Loss rate
28.1%
55.3%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
21.3%
Over 2.5 rate
15.6%
10.6%
Over 3.5 rate
3.1%
1.39
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.17
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
16
1.75
PPG
0.88
50.0%
Win rate
18.8%
25.0%
Draw rate
31.3%
25.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
54.2%
Over 1.5 rate
62.5%
29.2%
Over 2.5 rate
25.0%
16.7%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.35
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.42
24
History Matches
16
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.00
Goals for per game
0.84
66.0%
Scoring rate
59.4%
40.4%
BTTS rate
34.4%
1.33
Goals for per game
0.81
75.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
41.7%
BTTS rate
37.5%
47
History Matches
32
1.00
Goals Mean
0.84
1.05
Goals Std
0.91
66.0%
Scored 1+ rate
59.4%
21.3%
Scored 2+ rate
15.6%
6.4%
Scored 3+ rate
9.4%
1.33
Venue Goals Mean
0.81
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.89
Goals against per game
0.72
63.8%
Conceding rate
59.4%
0.71
Goals against per game
1.00
58.3%
Conceding rate
81.3%
47
History Matches
32
0.89
Conceded Mean
0.72
0.95
Conceded Std
0.67
17.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
12.5%
4.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
0.0%
0.71
Venue Conceded Mean
1.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
36.2%
Clean-sheet rate
40.6%
34.0%
Failed-to-score rate
40.6%
41.7%
Clean-sheet rate
18.8%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
36.2%
Clean-sheet rate
40.6%
34.0%
Failed-to-score rate
40.6%
41.7%
Clean-sheet rate
18.8%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
36.2%
Clean-sheet rate
40.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
47
History Matches
32
1.00
Result entropy
0.99
1.39
Goal Difference Std
1.17
0.29
Stability score
1.13
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
43
Eligible Matches
31
10
Lead Matches
9
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
77.8%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.85
8
Trailing Matches
7
25.0%
Non-loss rate
14.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
43
Halftime Coverage Matches
31
0.49
First Half Goals For Mean
0.45
0.44
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.29
0.58
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.39
0.51
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.42
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
165.0
Rest days
165.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
23
Normal Rest History Matches
17
1.61
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.82
20
Long Rest History Matches
13
1.40
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.92
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
1
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.34
Portability PPG Std
—
0.69
Portability PPG Range
—
59.25
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
47
Clean History Matches
32
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
ELO-16.76
PPG0.08
GF0.16
GA0.17
PPG0.88
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches15
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches8
Clean-sheet rate22.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.25
History Matches15
Goals Mean0.16
Goals Std0.15
Scored 1+ rate6.6%
Scored 2+ rate5.7%
Scored 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Goals Mean0.52
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.26
History Matches15
Conceded Mean0.17
Conceded Std0.28
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Conceded 2+ rate4.5%
Conceded 3+ rate4.3%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.29
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.04
History Matches15
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std0.22
Stability score-0.84
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.17
Eligible Matches12
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate2.2%
Lead Points Retention0.01
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate10.7%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches12
First Half Goals For Mean0.04
First Half Goals Against Mean0.15
Second Half Goals For Mean0.19
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.09
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match-2.67
Normal Rest History Matches6
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.79
Long Rest History Matches7
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.52
Current Team ELO-16.76
Current Opponent ELO16.76
Current ELO Difference-33.52
Expected score-0.05
History Matches15
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-1.69
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.25

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Nkana

D
Power Dynamos0–0Nkana31 Oct · away
Pick: Power Dynamos 57% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Kansanshi Dynamos

D
Kansanshi Dynamos2–2NAPSA Stars31 Oct · home
Pick: Draw 39% · hit
L
Zanaco3–0Kansanshi Dynamos24 Oct · away
Pick: Zanaco 46% · hit
W
Kansanshi Dynamos2–1Konkola Blades17 Oct · home
Pick: Draw 41% · missed
D
Makeni All Stars0–0Kansanshi Dynamos4 Oct · away
Pick: Makeni All Stars 36% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Match report

Nkana and Kansanshi Dynamos finished 1–0 in Super League on Wednesday 4 November 2026. It was 0–0 at half time. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC, before kickoff: Nkana win 51.3%, draw 28.2%, Kansanshi Dynamos win 20.5%. All three picks hit.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.