Red Arrows vs Nkwazi
Red Arrows
Full time
0–1
Half time 0–1
Wed 4 Nov · 13:00 UTC
Nkwazi
What we said before kickoff Result: Nkwazi win
Red Arrows winPick
41.8%
Draw
33.7%
Nkwazi win Result
24.5%
How our picks did
Based on the final score. It joins the public record at the next nightly settlement.
Match result
Our pickRed Arrows win · 41.8%
What happenedNkwazi win · we gave it 24.5%
Missed Over 2.5 goals
Our pickUnder · 66.2%
What happenedUnder · 1 goal
Hit Both teams to score
Our pickNo · 59.3%
What happenedNo · 0–1
Hit How surprising was it?
Result: Nkwazi win. In our numbers it ranked third of the three.
24%
chance we gave it0%50%100%
1 in 4.1
on average A pick at 42% is expected to miss about 6 times in 10. One match does not judge a model. The record across every settled match does.
See the full record
Both teams to score
Yes40.7%
No59.3%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.533.8%
Under 2.566.2%
How much we know
Red Arrows history46 matches
Nkwazi history48 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your calls on this match
Made on this device before kickoff, compared with the result.
Life of this match
Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
- Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
- Kickoff4 Nov · 13:00 UTC
- Full time: 0–1Two of our three picks hit
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
Share this result
A picture made for this match: teams, our probabilities and the verified stamp. Works in chats and on social.
The card keeps the pre-match numbers. A miss is shared as plainly as a hit.
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.8%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.
Why Red Arrows are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Red Arrows are rated 95 Elo points higher
Elo 1,576 against 1,481. On rating alone Red Arrows would be expected to take 63% of the points on offer.
-
Red Arrows score far more
1.15 goals a game over 46 matches for Red Arrows, against 0.73 over 48 for Nkwazi.
-
Red Arrows concede fewer
Red Arrows concede 0.65 a game, Nkwazi 0.85.
-
Red Arrows games more often go over 2.5 goals
33% of Red Arrows matches, against 21% for Nkwazi. The model puts this match at 34% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 24 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Red Arrows
Nkwazi
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1575.9
ELO
1481.3
46
ELO · Matches
48
1575.9
Current Team ELO
1481.3
1481.3
Current Opponent ELO
1575.9
94.55
Current ELO Difference
-94.55
0.63
Expected score
0.37
46
History Matches
48
0.08
Residual Mean
-0.01
55.64
Overperformance
48.95
0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.16
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.40
0.80
Goals for per game
0.60
0.40
Goals against per game
0.60
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.70
1.00
Goals for per game
0.70
0.50
Goals against per game
0.50
40.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.70
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.64
0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.50
0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.50
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
0.92
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.87
Overall performance9 signals 90
46
Matches
48
1.76
PPG
1.19
47.8%
Win rate
27.1%
32.6%
Draw rate
37.5%
19.6%
Loss rate
35.4%
54.3%
Over 1.5 rate
47.9%
32.6%
Over 2.5 rate
20.8%
10.9%
Over 3.5 rate
6.3%
1.14
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.11
Venue performance10 signals 100
23
Matches
23
2.39
PPG
1.13
73.9%
Win rate
26.1%
17.4%
Draw rate
34.8%
8.7%
Loss rate
39.1%
65.2%
Over 1.5 rate
34.8%
43.5%
Over 2.5 rate
13.0%
17.4%
Over 3.5 rate
8.7%
1.08
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.22
23
History Matches
23
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.15
Goals for per game
0.73
69.6%
Scoring rate
54.2%
43.5%
BTTS rate
37.5%
1.65
Goals for per game
0.57
82.6%
Scoring rate
47.8%
43.5%
BTTS rate
26.1%
46
History Matches
48
1.15
Goals Mean
0.73
1.02
Goals Std
0.78
69.6%
Scored 1+ rate
54.2%
32.6%
Scored 2+ rate
16.7%
10.9%
Scored 3+ rate
2.1%
1.65
Venue Goals Mean
0.57
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.65
Goals against per game
0.85
54.3%
Conceding rate
66.7%
0.52
Goals against per game
0.83
47.8%
Conceding rate
60.9%
46
History Matches
48
0.65
Conceded Mean
0.85
0.70
Conceded Std
0.79
8.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
14.6%
2.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
2.1%
0.52
Venue Conceded Mean
0.83
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
45.7%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
30.4%
Failed-to-score rate
45.8%
52.2%
Clean-sheet rate
39.1%
17.4%
Failed-to-score rate
52.2%
45.7%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
30.4%
Failed-to-score rate
45.8%
52.2%
Clean-sheet rate
39.1%
17.4%
Failed-to-score rate
52.2%
45.7%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
46
History Matches
48
0.94
Result entropy
0.99
1.14
Goal Difference Std
1.11
5.57
Stability score
0.86
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
45
Eligible Matches
47
11
Lead Matches
10
81.8%
Lead Win Rate
60.0%
0.88
Lead Points Retention
0.73
11
Trailing Matches
15
54.5%
Non-loss rate
26.7%
18.2%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
45
Halftime Coverage Matches
47
0.38
First Half Goals For Mean
0.32
0.36
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.47
0.80
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.40
0.31
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.38
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
166.0
Rest days
164.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
3
1.25
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
21
Normal Rest History Matches
25
1.38
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.20
20
Long Rest History Matches
19
2.20
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.11
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.18
Portability PPG Std
0.17
0.35
Portability PPG Range
0.34
73.91
Portability Score
74.61
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
46
Clean History Matches
48
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO94.55
PPG0.57
GF0.42
GA-0.20
PPG1.26
PPG0.20
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate12.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.15
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate13.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.35
History Matches-2
Goals Mean0.42
Goals Std0.24
Scored 1+ rate15.4%
Scored 2+ rate15.9%
Scored 3+ rate8.8%
Venue Goals Mean1.09
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.46
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean-0.20
Conceded Std-0.09
Clean-sheet rate12.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.06
Conceded 3+ rate0.1%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.00
History Matches-2
Result entropy-0.05
Goal Difference Std0.03
Stability score4.72
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.05
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate21.8%
Lead Points Retention0.15
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate27.9%
Trailing Win Rate18.2%
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean0.06
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.11
Second Half Goals For Mean0.40
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.07
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.01
Portability PPG Range0.01
Portability Score-0.70
Rest days2.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.25
Normal Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.18
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match1.09
Current Team ELO94.55
Current Opponent ELO-94.55
Current ELO Difference189.1
Expected score0.27
History Matches-2
Residual Mean0.10
Overperformance6.69
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.12
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Red Arrows
D
Red Arrows0–0Chirundu Utd31 Oct · home
Pick: Red Arrows 62% · missed W
Red Arrows1–0Kaizer Chiefs17 Oct · home
Pick: Kaizer Chiefs 46% · missed W
Mutondo Stars1–3Red Arrows4 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 42% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Nkwazi
D
Nkwazi0–0ZESCO United31 Oct · home
Pick: Draw 38% · hit D
Nkwazi0–0Green Eagles24 Oct · home
Pick: Draw 41% · hit D
Green Buffaloes0–0Nkwazi18 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 44% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Match report
Red Arrows and Nkwazi finished 0–1 in Super League on Wednesday 4 November 2026. It was 0–1 at half time. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC, before kickoff: Red Arrows win 41.8%, draw 33.7%, Nkwazi win 24.5%. Two of the three picks hit.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.