ScoreProb
Premier Soccer League Zimbabwe Round 33 2026

Kariba vs CAPS United

Kariba Home · Elo 1,475
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
CAPS United Away · Elo 1,530
Nyamhunga Stadium, Kariba Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Draw
Kariba win
33.3%
DrawPick
36.6%
CAPS United win
30.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes38.2%
No61.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.531.5%
Under 2.568.5%

How much we know

Kariba history60 matches
CAPS United history61 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (36.6%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why a draw is the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • CAPS United are rated 55 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,530 against 1,475. On rating alone CAPS United would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • CAPS United score more

    0.73 goals a game over 60 matches for Kariba, against 0.95 over 61 for CAPS United.

  • Defences are close

    Kariba concede 0.85 a game, CAPS United 0.85.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    23% of Kariba matches, against 26% for CAPS United. The model puts this match at 32% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Kariba
CAPS United@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1475.3
ELO
1530.3
60
ELO · Matches
61
1475.3
Current Team ELO
1530.3
1530.3
Current Opponent ELO
1475.3
-54.98
Current ELO Difference
54.98
0.42
Expected score
0.58
60
History Matches
61
-0.02
Residual Mean
0.02
48.26
Overperformance
51.80
-0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.11
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.40
0.60
Goals for per game
1.20
1.00
Goals against per game
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.10
0.60
Goals for per game
1.20
1.30
Goals against per game
1.10
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
0.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
0.49
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.40
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.42
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.04
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.55
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.04
Overall performance9 signals
90
60
Matches
61
1.15
PPG
1.41
21.7%
Win rate
36.1%
50.0%
Draw rate
32.8%
28.3%
Loss rate
31.1%
46.7%
Over 1.5 rate
50.8%
23.3%
Over 2.5 rate
26.2%
11.7%
Over 3.5 rate
11.5%
1.39
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.10
Venue performance10 signals
100
29
Matches
31
1.41
PPG
1.42
27.6%
Win rate
35.5%
58.6%
Draw rate
35.5%
13.8%
Loss rate
29.0%
34.5%
Over 1.5 rate
48.4%
6.9%
Over 2.5 rate
19.4%
3.4%
Over 3.5 rate
3.2%
1.17
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.01
29
History Matches
31
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.73
Goals for per game
0.95
51.7%
Scoring rate
65.6%
35.0%
BTTS rate
37.7%
0.69
Goals for per game
0.87
48.3%
Scoring rate
64.5%
24.1%
BTTS rate
35.5%
0.58
Goals for per game
1.19
53.8%
Scoring rate
63.0%
38.5%
BTTS rate
40.7%
60
History Matches
61
0.73
Goals Mean
0.95
0.95
Goals Std
0.89
51.7%
Scored 1+ rate
65.6%
13.3%
Scored 2+ rate
23.0%
5.0%
Scored 3+ rate
4.9%
0.69
Venue Goals Mean
0.87
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.85
Goals against per game
0.85
55.0%
Conceding rate
55.7%
0.41
Goals against per game
0.74
37.9%
Conceding rate
54.8%
0.96
Goals against per game
0.89
57.7%
Conceding rate
59.3%
60
History Matches
61
0.85
Conceded Mean
0.85
1.05
Conceded Std
0.90
16.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
24.6%
8.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
4.9%
0.41
Venue Conceded Mean
0.74
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
45.0%
Clean-sheet rate
44.3%
48.3%
Failed-to-score rate
34.4%
62.1%
Clean-sheet rate
45.2%
51.7%
Failed-to-score rate
35.5%
42.3%
Clean-sheet rate
40.7%
46.2%
Failed-to-score rate
37.0%
45.0%
Clean-sheet rate
44.3%
48.3%
Failed-to-score rate
34.4%
62.1%
Clean-sheet rate
45.2%
51.7%
Failed-to-score rate
35.5%
45.0%
Clean-sheet rate
44.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
60
History Matches
61
0.94
Result entropy
1.00
1.39
Goal Difference Std
1.10
5.77
Stability score
0.17
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
58
Eligible Matches
59
13
Lead Matches
14
69.2%
Lead Win Rate
92.9%
0.79
Lead Points Retention
0.95
13
Trailing Matches
13
15.4%
Non-loss rate
23.1%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
58
Halftime Coverage Matches
59
0.38
First Half Goals For Mean
0.37
0.41
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.36
0.29
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.58
0.45
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.53
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.00
Rest days
78.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
8
1.40
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.63
37
Normal Rest History Matches
33
1.11
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.45
17
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.18
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.26
Competition & season17 signals
170
26
Matches
27
0.96
PPG
1.59
15.4%
Win rate
40.7%
50.0%
Draw rate
37.0%
34.6%
Loss rate
22.2%
42.3%
Over 1.5 rate
55.6%
19.2%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
11.5%
Over 3.5 rate
18.5%
1.11
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.05
26
Current Competition Matches
27
0.96
Current Competition PPG
1.59
-0.38
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.30
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.17
Portability PPG Std
0.16
0.33
Portability PPG Range
0.33
75.04
Portability Score
75.31
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
60
Clean History Matches
61
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-54.98
PPG-0.26
GF-0.22
GA0.00
PPG-0.63
PPG-0.01
PPG0.00
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate0.7%
Failed-to-score rate13.9%
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate16.9%
Failed-to-score rate16.2%
History Matches-1
Goals Mean-0.22
Goals Std0.05
Scored 1+ rate-0.14
Scored 2+ rate-0.10
Scored 3+ rate0.1%
Venue Goals Mean-0.18
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.91
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean0.00
Conceded Std0.14
Clean-sheet rate0.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.08
Conceded 3+ rate3.4%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.33
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.37
History Matches-1
Result entropy-0.06
Goal Difference Std0.29
Stability score5.60
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.51
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate-0.24
Lead Points Retention-0.16
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate-0.08
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean0.01
First Half Goals Against Mean0.06
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.28
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.08
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG-0.63
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.68
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.00
Portability PPG Range0.00
Portability Score-0.27
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.23
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.35
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.09
Current Team ELO-54.98
Current Opponent ELO54.98
Current ELO Difference-110.0
Expected score-0.16
History Matches-1
Residual Mean-0.05
Overperformance-3.53
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.05

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Kariba

D
Chicken Inn0–0Kariba24 Oct · away
Pick: Chicken Inn 40% · missed
L
Kariba0–1Agama17 Oct · home
Pick: Kariba 48% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

CAPS United

L
CAPS United0–1Scotland Mabvuku29 Oct · home
Pick: Scotland Mabvuku 41% · hit
W
Platinum0–2CAPS United17 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 39% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Kariba and CAPS United meet in Premier Soccer League on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. The match is played at Nyamhunga Stadium, Kariba. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Kariba win 33.3%, draw 36.6%, CAPS United win 30.1%. The pick is a draw. Over 2.5 goals: 31.5%. Both teams to score: 38.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.