ScoreProb
Premier Soccer League Zimbabwe Round 33 2026

Scotland Mabvuku vs Herentals

Scotland Mabvuku Home · Elo 1,662
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Herentals Away · Elo 1,547
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Scotland Mabvuku win
Scotland Mabvuku winPick
53.7%
Draw
29.9%
Herentals win
16.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes36.9%
No63.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.536.8%
Under 2.563.2%

How much we know

Scotland Mabvuku history59 matches
Herentals history59 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (53.7%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Scotland Mabvuku are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Scotland Mabvuku are rated 115 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,662 against 1,547. On rating alone Scotland Mabvuku would be expected to take 66% of the points on offer.

  • Scotland Mabvuku score far more

    1.44 goals a game over 59 matches for Scotland Mabvuku, against 0.90 over 59 for Herentals.

  • Scotland Mabvuku concede fewer

    Scotland Mabvuku concede 0.51 a game, Herentals 0.81.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    34% of Scotland Mabvuku matches, against 27% for Herentals. The model puts this match at 37% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Scotland Mabvuku
Herentals@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1662.3
ELO
1547.4
59
ELO · Matches
59
1662.3
Current Team ELO
1547.4
1547.4
Current Opponent ELO
1662.3
114.8
Current ELO Difference
-114.8
0.66
Expected score
0.34
59
History Matches
59
0.13
Residual Mean
0.04
59.67
Overperformance
52.84
0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.80
1.00
Goals for per game
0.80
0.80
Goals against per game
0.60
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
2.30
PPG
1.60
1.90
Goals for per game
0.70
0.40
Goals against per game
0.70
70.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.70
1.37
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.78
0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
0.49
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.78
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.63
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.34
Overall performance9 signals
90
59
Matches
59
2.03
PPG
1.53
57.6%
Win rate
40.7%
30.5%
Draw rate
30.5%
11.9%
Loss rate
28.8%
55.9%
Over 1.5 rate
45.8%
33.9%
Over 2.5 rate
27.1%
11.9%
Over 3.5 rate
11.9%
1.33
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.38
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
30
1.96
PPG
1.33
57.1%
Win rate
33.3%
25.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
17.9%
Loss rate
33.3%
53.6%
Over 1.5 rate
30.0%
32.1%
Over 2.5 rate
16.7%
7.1%
Over 3.5 rate
6.7%
1.45
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.28
28
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.44
Goals for per game
0.90
71.2%
Scoring rate
57.6%
32.2%
BTTS rate
28.8%
1.36
Goals for per game
0.57
71.4%
Scoring rate
46.7%
25.0%
BTTS rate
16.7%
1.56
Goals for per game
1.12
70.4%
Scoring rate
69.2%
25.9%
BTTS rate
34.6%
59
History Matches
59
1.44
Goals Mean
0.90
1.29
Goals Std
0.97
71.2%
Scored 1+ rate
57.6%
45.8%
Scored 2+ rate
23.7%
16.9%
Scored 3+ rate
6.8%
1.36
Venue Goals Mean
0.57
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.51
Goals against per game
0.81
40.7%
Conceding rate
52.5%
0.46
Goals against per game
0.77
35.7%
Conceding rate
46.7%
0.37
Goals against per game
0.88
29.6%
Conceding rate
57.7%
59
History Matches
59
0.51
Conceded Mean
0.81
0.70
Conceded Std
0.98
8.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
18.6%
1.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.5%
0.46
Venue Conceded Mean
0.77
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
59.3%
Clean-sheet rate
47.5%
28.8%
Failed-to-score rate
42.4%
64.3%
Clean-sheet rate
53.3%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
53.3%
70.4%
Clean-sheet rate
42.3%
29.6%
Failed-to-score rate
30.8%
59.3%
Clean-sheet rate
47.5%
28.8%
Failed-to-score rate
42.4%
64.3%
Clean-sheet rate
53.3%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
53.3%
59.3%
Clean-sheet rate
47.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
59
History Matches
59
0.85
Result entropy
0.99
1.33
Goal Difference Std
1.38
15.10
Stability score
1.09
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
57
Eligible Matches
58
24
Lead Matches
14
91.7%
Lead Win Rate
92.9%
0.93
Lead Points Retention
0.95
3
Trailing Matches
12
33.3%
Non-loss rate
16.7%
33.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
57
Halftime Coverage Matches
58
0.67
First Half Goals For Mean
0.43
0.16
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.40
0.72
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.48
0.32
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.43
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.00
Rest days
77.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
9
Short Rest History Matches
5
2.22
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.80
27
Normal Rest History Matches
32
2.07
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.59
22
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.86
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.29
Competition & season17 signals
170
27
Matches
26
2.11
PPG
1.73
59.3%
Win rate
50.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
23.1%
7.4%
Loss rate
26.9%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
53.8%
37.0%
Over 2.5 rate
30.8%
7.4%
Over 3.5 rate
15.4%
1.42
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.45
27
Current Competition Matches
26
2.11
Current Competition PPG
1.73
1.19
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.23
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.07
Portability PPG Std
0.18
0.14
Portability PPG Range
0.37
87.54
Portability Score
73.15
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
59
Clean History Matches
59
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO114.8
PPG0.51
GF0.54
GA-0.31
PPG0.38
PPG0.63
PPG-0.20
PPG0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate11.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate11.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.25
History Matches0
Goals Mean0.54
Goals Std0.32
Scored 1+ rate13.6%
Scored 2+ rate22.0%
Scored 3+ rate10.2%
Venue Goals Mean0.79
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.59
History Matches0
Conceded Mean-0.31
Conceded Std-0.28
Clean-sheet rate11.9%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.10
Conceded 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.29
History Matches0
Result entropy-0.14
Goal Difference Std-0.06
Stability score14.01
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.29
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches10
Lead Win Rate-0.01
Lead Points Retention-0.02
Trailing Matches-9
Non-loss rate16.7%
Trailing Win Rate33.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean0.24
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.24
Second Half Goals For Mean0.24
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.12
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG0.38
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.95
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.11
Portability PPG Range-0.22
Portability Score14.39
Rest days1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches4
Short Rest Points Per Match0.42
Normal Rest History Matches-5
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.48
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.58
Current Team ELO114.8
Current Opponent ELO-114.8
Current ELO Difference229.6
Expected score0.32
History Matches0
Residual Mean0.09
Overperformance6.83
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.15

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Scotland Mabvuku

W
CAPS United0–1Scotland Mabvuku29 Oct · away
Pick: Scotland Mabvuku 41% · hit
L
Petro de Luanda3–0Scotland Mabvuku23 Oct · away
Pick: Petro de Luanda 42% · hit
W
Scotland Mabvuku2–0Petro de Luanda18 Oct · home
Pick: Scotland Mabvuku 36% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Herentals

L
Herentals0–3Platinum24 Oct · home
Pick: Herentals 42% · missed
L
Simba Bhora2–1Herentals17 Oct · away
Pick: Simba Bhora 42% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Scotland Mabvuku and Herentals meet in Premier Soccer League on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Scotland Mabvuku win 53.7%, draw 29.9%, Herentals win 16.4%. The pick is Scotland Mabvuku win. Over 2.5 goals: 36.8%. Both teams to score: 36.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.