ScoreProb
Premier Soccer League Zimbabwe Round 33 2026

Simba Bhora vs Hardrock

Simba Bhora Home · Elo 1,522
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Hardrock Away · Elo 1,587
Wadzanai Stadium, Shamva Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Hardrock win
Simba Bhora win
32.1%
Draw
33.0%
Hardrock winPick
34.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes44.4%
No55.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.537.6%
Under 2.562.4%

How much we know

Simba Bhora history63 matches
Hardrock history27 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (34.8%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Hardrock are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Hardrock are rated 65 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,587 against 1,522. On rating alone Hardrock would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • Hardrock score far more

    1.05 goals a game over 63 matches for Simba Bhora, against 1.70 over 27 for Hardrock.

  • Hardrock concede fewer

    Simba Bhora concede 0.79 a game, Hardrock 0.67.

  • Hardrock games more often go over 2.5 goals

    32% of Simba Bhora matches, against 44% for Hardrock. The model puts this match at 38% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Simba Bhora
Hardrock@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1521.5
ELO
1587.0
63
ELO · Matches
27
1521.5
Current Team ELO
1587.0
1587.0
Current Opponent ELO
1521.5
-65.50
Current ELO Difference
65.50
0.41
Expected score
0.59
63
History Matches
27
0.02
Residual Mean
0.16
51.18
Overperformance
58.94
-0.14
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.15
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
2.40
1.00
Goals for per game
2.00
1.40
Goals against per game
0.80
0.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
2.20
1.30
Goals for per game
2.20
1.20
Goals against per game
0.90
20.0%
Win rate
70.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.20
0.78
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.87
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
0.87
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.04
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.30
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.55
Overall performance9 signals
90
63
Matches
27
1.56
PPG
2.00
39.7%
Win rate
59.3%
36.5%
Draw rate
22.2%
23.8%
Loss rate
18.5%
50.8%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
31.7%
Over 2.5 rate
44.4%
14.3%
Over 3.5 rate
18.5%
1.30
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.73
Venue performance10 signals
100
32
Matches
14
1.78
PPG
2.14
46.9%
Win rate
64.3%
37.5%
Draw rate
21.4%
15.6%
Loss rate
14.3%
46.9%
Over 1.5 rate
64.3%
31.3%
Over 2.5 rate
21.4%
12.5%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.27
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.42
32
History Matches
14
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.05
Goals for per game
1.70
66.7%
Scoring rate
74.1%
39.7%
BTTS rate
29.6%
1.19
Goals for per game
1.21
71.9%
Scoring rate
64.3%
34.4%
BTTS rate
14.3%
1.04
Goals for per game
1.70
70.4%
Scoring rate
74.1%
48.1%
BTTS rate
29.6%
63
History Matches
27
1.05
Goals Mean
1.70
1.05
Goals Std
1.49
66.7%
Scored 1+ rate
74.1%
22.2%
Scored 2+ rate
51.9%
12.7%
Scored 3+ rate
25.9%
1.19
Venue Goals Mean
1.21
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.79
Goals against per game
0.67
54.0%
Conceding rate
40.7%
0.53
Goals against per game
0.43
40.6%
Conceding rate
28.6%
1.04
Goals against per game
0.67
63.0%
Conceding rate
40.7%
63
History Matches
27
0.79
Conceded Mean
0.67
0.89
Conceded Std
0.90
20.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
22.2%
3.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
3.7%
0.53
Venue Conceded Mean
0.43
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
46.0%
Clean-sheet rate
59.3%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
25.9%
59.4%
Clean-sheet rate
71.4%
28.1%
Failed-to-score rate
35.7%
37.0%
Clean-sheet rate
59.3%
29.6%
Failed-to-score rate
25.9%
46.0%
Clean-sheet rate
59.3%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
25.9%
59.4%
Clean-sheet rate
71.4%
28.1%
Failed-to-score rate
35.7%
46.0%
Clean-sheet rate
59.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
63
History Matches
27
0.98
Result entropy
0.87
1.30
Goal Difference Std
1.73
2.03
Stability score
12.93
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
62
Eligible Matches
26
17
Lead Matches
10
82.4%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.86
Lead Points Retention
1.00
10
Trailing Matches
6
10.0%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
16.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
62
Halftime Coverage Matches
26
0.53
First Half Goals For Mean
0.65
0.35
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.38
0.50
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.08
0.44
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.31
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.00
Rest days
78.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
8
Short Rest History Matches
4
1.63
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.75
35
Normal Rest History Matches
16
1.51
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.13
19
Long Rest History Matches
6
1.63
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
27
Matches
27
1.26
PPG
2.00
29.6%
Win rate
59.3%
37.0%
Draw rate
22.2%
33.3%
Loss rate
18.5%
63.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
44.4%
Over 2.5 rate
44.4%
11.1%
Over 3.5 rate
18.5%
1.39
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.73
27
Current Competition Matches
27
1.26
Current Competition PPG
2.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.04
3
Competition Season Count
1
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.27
Portability PPG Std
—
0.53
Portability PPG Range
—
65.15
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
63
Clean History Matches
27
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
ELO-65.50
PPG-0.44
GF-0.66
GA0.13
PPG-0.74
PPG-0.36
PPG-1.80
PPG-1.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches36
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Failed-to-score rate7.4%
History Matches18
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches36
Goals Mean-0.66
Goals Std-0.44
Scored 1+ rate-0.07
Scored 2+ rate-0.30
Scored 3+ rate-0.13
Venue Goals Mean-0.03
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.09
History Matches36
Conceded Mean0.13
Conceded Std-0.01
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Conceded 2+ rate-0.02
Conceded 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.17
History Matches36
Result entropy0.11
Goal Difference Std-0.43
Stability score-10.90
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.23
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.25
Eligible Matches36
Lead Matches7
Lead Win Rate-0.18
Lead Points Retention-0.14
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate-0.23
Trailing Win Rate-0.17
Halftime Coverage Matches36
First Half Goals For Mean-0.12
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.03
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.58
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.13
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.74
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.04
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches4
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.13
Normal Rest History Matches19
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.61
Long Rest History Matches13
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.37
Current Team ELO-65.50
Current Opponent ELO65.50
Current ELO Difference-131.0
Expected score-0.19
History Matches36
Residual Mean-0.14
Overperformance-7.76
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.29

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Simba Bhora

L
Triangle United2–0Simba Bhora25 Oct · away
Pick: Simba Bhora 39% · missed
W
Simba Bhora2–1Herentals17 Oct · home
Pick: Simba Bhora 42% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Hardrock

W
Hardrock3–2MWOS25 Oct · home
Pick: Hardrock 45% · hit
W
Dynamos0–1Hardrock17 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 34% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Simba Bhora and Hardrock meet in Premier Soccer League on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. The match is played at Wadzanai Stadium, Shamva. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Simba Bhora win 32.1%, draw 33.0%, Hardrock win 34.8%. The pick is Hardrock win. Over 2.5 goals: 37.6%. Both teams to score: 44.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.