Kaya W vs Melbourne City W
What we said before kickoff Result: Melbourne City W win
Kaya W win
32.2%
Draw
29.0%
Melbourne City W winPick Result
38.8%
How our picks did
Based on the final score. It joins the public record at the next nightly settlement.
Match result
Our pickMelbourne City W win · 38.8%
What happenedMelbourne City W win · we gave it 38.8%
Hit Over 2.5 goals
Our pickOver · 53.1%
What happenedOver · 7 goals
Hit Both teams to score
Our pickNo · 53.5%
What happenedNo · 0–7
Hit How surprising was it?
Result: Melbourne City W win. In our numbers it ranked first of the three.
39%
chance we gave it0%50%100%
1 in 2.6
on average A pick at 39% is expected to miss about 6 times in 10. One match does not judge a model. The record across every settled match does.
See the full record
Timeline
Newest at the bottom
Yellow cardR. Chan
28' 46'
SubstitutionS. McMahon off · K. Roestbakken on
47'
GoalK. McGroarty · assist T. Ray
Yellow cardM. Gerona
59' 64'
GoalM. Hayashi · assist A. Prakash
66'
GoalK. McGroarty · assist A. Medwin
SubstitutionJ. Onrubia off · A. del Campo on
66' SubstitutionS. M. Cadag off · C. Lemoran on
66' 71'
GoalM. Ayres
72'
GoalC. Vine · assist M. Ayres
72'
SubstitutionK. McGroarty off · C. Vine on
79'
SubstitutionR. Stott off · C. Biggs on
84'
GoalM. Ayres · assist C. Vine
85'
SubstitutionA. Keane off · T. Heatley on
SubstitutionK. Hawkinson off · C. Hulleza on
85' SubstitutionA. Carpio off · C. Altiche on
85' SubstitutionR. Mendano off · A. Sotto on
89' Yellow cardC. Altiche
90' 90+2'
GoalC. Vine · assist A. Medwin
90+4'
Yellow cardT. Ray
Both teams to score
Yes46.5%
No53.5%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.553.1%
Under 2.546.9%
How much we know
Kaya W history2 matches
Melbourne City W history43 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your calls on this match
Made on this device before kickoff, compared with the result.
Life of this match
Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
- Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
- Kickoff4 Nov · 10:30 UTC
- Full time: 0–7All three of our picks hit
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
Share this result
A picture made for this match: teams, our probabilities and the verified stamp. Works in chats and on social.
The card keeps the pre-match numbers. A miss is shared as plainly as a hit.
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.8%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.
Why Melbourne City W are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Melbourne City W are rated 131 Elo points higher
Elo 1,637 against 1,506. On rating alone Melbourne City W would be expected to take 68% of the points on offer.
-
Kaya W score more
3.00 goals a game over 2 matches for Kaya W, against 2.21 over 43 for Melbourne City W.
-
Kaya W concede fewer
Kaya W concede 0.00 a game, Melbourne City W 0.86.
-
Melbourne City W games more often go over 2.5 goals
50% of Kaya W matches, against 63% for Melbourne City W. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Melbourne City W@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1506.3
ELO
1637.2
2
ELO · Matches
43
1506.3
Current Team ELO
1637.2
1637.2
Current Opponent ELO
1506.3
-130.9
Current ELO Difference
130.9
0.32
Expected score
0.68
2
History Matches
43
0.25
Residual Mean
0.17
52.27
Overperformance
61.37
0.25
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.21
Recent form16 signals 160
2
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
2.40
3.00
Goals for per game
1.60
0.00
Goals against per game
1.00
50.0%
Win rate
80.0%
2
Matches
10
2.00
PPG
2.50
3.00
Goals for per game
1.80
0.00
Goals against per game
0.90
50.0%
Win rate
80.0%
3.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
3.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.98
0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.83
0.63
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.58
3.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.14
Overall performance9 signals 90
2
Matches
43
2.00
PPG
2.23
50.0%
Win rate
67.4%
50.0%
Draw rate
20.9%
0.0%
Loss rate
11.6%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
76.7%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
62.8%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
39.5%
3.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.83
Venue performance10 signals 100
2
Matches
19
2.00
PPG
2.16
50.0%
Win rate
63.2%
50.0%
Draw rate
26.3%
0.0%
Loss rate
10.5%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
78.9%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
57.9%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
31.6%
3.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.89
2
History Matches
19
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
3.00
Goals for per game
2.21
50.0%
Scoring rate
90.7%
0.0%
BTTS rate
58.1%
3.00
Goals for per game
2.11
50.0%
Scoring rate
94.7%
0.0%
BTTS rate
57.9%
3.00
Goals for per game
—
50.0%
Scoring rate
—
0.0%
BTTS rate
—
2
History Matches
43
3.00
Goals Mean
2.21
3.00
Goals Std
1.61
50.0%
Scored 1+ rate
90.7%
50.0%
Scored 2+ rate
58.1%
50.0%
Scored 3+ rate
34.9%
3.00
Venue Goals Mean
2.11
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
0.00
Goals against per game
0.86
0.0%
Conceding rate
60.5%
0.00
Goals against per game
0.79
0.0%
Conceding rate
57.9%
0.00
Goals against per game
—
0.0%
Conceding rate
—
2
History Matches
43
0.00
Conceded Mean
0.86
0.00
Conceded Std
0.88
0.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
18.6%
0.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
7.0%
0.00
Venue Conceded Mean
0.79
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
39.5%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
9.3%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
42.1%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
5.3%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
—
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
—
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
39.5%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
9.3%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
42.1%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
5.3%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
39.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
2
History Matches
43
0.63
Result entropy
0.77
3.00
Goal Difference Std
1.83
36.91
Stability score
23.25
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
2
Eligible Matches
43
1
Lead Matches
20
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
90.0%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.93
0
Trailing Matches
6
—
Non-loss rate
50.0%
—
Trailing Win Rate
33.3%
Goal timing5 signals 50
2
Halftime Coverage Matches
43
1.00
First Half Goals For Mean
1.09
0.00
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.37
2.00
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.12
0.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.49
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
73.02
Rest days
168.2
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
2
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
1
Normal Rest History Matches
24
1.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.13
0
Long Rest History Matches
16
—
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.50
Competition & season17 signals 170
2
Matches
0
2.00
PPG
—
50.0%
Win rate
—
50.0%
Draw rate
—
0.0%
Loss rate
—
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
—
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
—
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
—
3.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
2
Current Competition Matches
0
2.00
Current Competition PPG
—
3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
—
1
Competition Season Count
4
0
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
—
Portability PPG Std
0.10
—
Portability PPG Range
0.27
—
Portability Score
83.17
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
2
Clean History Matches
43
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreNon-loss rateTrailing Win RateCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per Match
ELO-130.9
PPG-0.23
GF0.79
GA-0.86
PPG-0.16
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-41
Clean-sheet rate60.5%
Failed-to-score rate40.7%
History Matches-17
Clean-sheet rate57.9%
Failed-to-score rate44.7%
History Matches-41
Goals Mean0.79
Goals Std1.39
Scored 1+ rate-0.41
Scored 2+ rate-0.08
Scored 3+ rate15.1%
Venue Goals Mean0.89
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std2.02
History Matches-41
Conceded Mean-0.86
Conceded Std-0.88
Clean-sheet rate60.5%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.19
Conceded 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Conceded Mean-0.79
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.83
History Matches-41
Result entropy-0.14
Goal Difference Std1.17
Stability score13.66
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.86
Eligible Matches-41
Lead Matches-19
Lead Win Rate10.0%
Lead Points Retention0.07
Trailing Matches-6
Halftime Coverage Matches-41
First Half Goals For Mean-0.09
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.37
Second Half Goals For Mean0.88
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.49
Current Competition Matches2
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count-4
Rest days-95.21
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest History Matches-23
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.13
Long Rest History Matches-16
Current Team ELO-130.9
Current Opponent ELO130.9
Current ELO Difference-261.8
Expected score-0.36
History Matches-41
Residual Mean0.08
Overperformance-9.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.04
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Kaya W
L
Beijing Beikong W6–0Kaya W1 Nov · away
Pick: Beijing Beikong W 44% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Melbourne City W
L
Melbourne City W0–2Nasaf W1 Nov · home
Pick: Melbourne City W 68% · missed W
Sydney FC W0–5Melbourne City W25 Oct · away
Pick: Melbourne City W 52% · hit W
Wellington Phoenix W1–2Melbourne City W17 Oct · away
Pick: Melbourne City W 46% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Match report
Kaya W and Melbourne City W finished 0–7 in AFC Women's Champions League on Wednesday 4 November 2026. It was 0–0 at half time. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC, before kickoff: Kaya W win 32.2%, draw 29.0%, Melbourne City W win 38.8%. All three picks hit.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.