ScoreProb
Regionalliga - SudWest Germany Sudwest - 15 2026

Kickers Offenbach vs Freiburg II

Kickers Offenbach Home · Elo 1,554
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Freiburg II Away · Elo 1,543
Bieberer Berg Stadion, Offenbach am Main Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Kickers Offenbach win
Kickers Offenbach winPick
50.6%
Draw
21.4%
Freiburg II win
27.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes60.2%
No39.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.568.9%
Under 2.531.1%

How much we know

Kickers Offenbach history65 matches
Freiburg II history61 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.6%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Kickers Offenbach are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,554 against 1,543. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.72 goals a game over 65 matches for Kickers Offenbach, against 1.87 over 61 for Freiburg II.

  • Kickers Offenbach concede fewer

    Kickers Offenbach concede 1.55 a game, Freiburg II 1.87.

  • Freiburg II games more often go over 2.5 goals

    58% of Kickers Offenbach matches, against 79% for Freiburg II. The model puts this match at 69% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Kickers Offenbach
Freiburg II
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1553.7
ELO
1543.4
65
ELO · Matches
61
1553.7
Current Team ELO
1543.4
1543.4
Current Opponent ELO
1553.7
10.30
Current ELO Difference
-10.30
0.51
Expected score
0.49
65
History Matches
61
0.05
Residual Mean
0.04
53.70
Overperformance
53.34
0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.80
1.60
Goals for per game
2.40
2.60
Goals against per game
1.00
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.50
1.60
Goals for per game
2.00
2.20
Goals against per game
1.40
50.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.00
0.92
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.48
2.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
2.18
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.20
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.76
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.42
Overall performance9 signals
90
65
Matches
61
1.55
PPG
1.38
43.1%
Win rate
39.3%
26.2%
Draw rate
19.7%
30.8%
Loss rate
41.0%
84.6%
Over 1.5 rate
93.4%
58.5%
Over 2.5 rate
78.7%
43.1%
Over 3.5 rate
54.1%
2.02
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.15
Venue performance10 signals
100
35
Matches
28
1.80
PPG
1.25
51.4%
Win rate
35.7%
25.7%
Draw rate
17.9%
22.9%
Loss rate
46.4%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
92.9%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
71.4%
48.6%
Over 3.5 rate
42.9%
2.10
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.99
35
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.72
Goals for per game
1.87
89.2%
Scoring rate
80.3%
66.2%
BTTS rate
65.6%
1.83
Goals for per game
1.46
94.3%
Scoring rate
71.4%
68.6%
BTTS rate
57.1%
2.33
Goals for per game
2.67
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
100.0%
65
History Matches
61
1.72
Goals Mean
1.87
1.16
Goals Std
1.45
89.2%
Scored 1+ rate
80.3%
47.7%
Scored 2+ rate
54.1%
27.7%
Scored 3+ rate
32.8%
1.83
Venue Goals Mean
1.46
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.55
Goals against per game
1.87
75.4%
Conceding rate
83.6%
1.46
Goals against per game
1.82
71.4%
Conceding rate
85.7%
0.67
Goals against per game
1.33
66.7%
Conceding rate
100.0%
65
History Matches
61
1.55
Conceded Mean
1.87
1.54
Conceded Std
1.22
36.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
60.7%
23.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
32.8%
1.46
Venue Conceded Mean
1.82
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
24.6%
Clean-sheet rate
16.4%
10.8%
Failed-to-score rate
19.7%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
5.7%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
24.6%
Clean-sheet rate
16.4%
10.8%
Failed-to-score rate
19.7%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
5.7%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
24.6%
Clean-sheet rate
16.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
65
History Matches
61
0.98
Result entropy
0.96
2.02
Goal Difference Std
2.15
2.04
Stability score
4.20
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
62
Eligible Matches
57
29
Lead Matches
18
58.6%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.69
Lead Points Retention
0.76
15
Trailing Matches
24
26.7%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
6.7%
Trailing Win Rate
12.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
62
Halftime Coverage Matches
57
0.97
First Half Goals For Mean
0.86
0.68
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.04
0.76
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.04
0.94
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.88
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
45
Normal Rest History Matches
43
1.56
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.21
18
Long Rest History Matches
16
1.56
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.94
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
3.00
PPG
1.67
100.0%
Win rate
33.3%
0.0%
Draw rate
66.7%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
0.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.89
3
Current Competition Matches
3
3.00
Current Competition PPG
1.67
1.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.33
5
Competition Season Count
5
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.62
Portability PPG Std
0.63
1.74
Portability PPG Range
1.92
44.58
Portability Score
44.12
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
65
Clean History Matches
61
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO10.30
PPG0.18
GF-0.15
GA-0.32
PPG1.33
PPG0.55
PPG0.00
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate8.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate14.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.23
History Matches4
Goals Mean-0.15
Goals Std-0.30
Scored 1+ rate8.9%
Scored 2+ rate-0.06
Scored 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Goals Mean0.36
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.57
History Matches4
Conceded Mean-0.32
Conceded Std0.32
Clean-sheet rate8.2%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.24
Conceded 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Conceded Mean-0.36
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.98
History Matches4
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.13
Stability score-2.16
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.35
Eligible Matches5
Lead Matches11
Lead Win Rate-0.08
Lead Points Retention-0.07
Trailing Matches-9
Non-loss rate-0.07
Trailing Win Rate-0.06
Halftime Coverage Matches5
First Half Goals For Mean0.11
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.36
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.28
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.06
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.33
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.01
Portability PPG Range-0.18
Portability Score0.46
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.35
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.38
Current Team ELO10.30
Current Opponent ELO-10.30
Current ELO Difference20.60
Expected score0.03
History Matches4
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance0.35
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.02

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Kickers Offenbach

W
Eintracht Frankfurt II2–4Kickers Offenbach1 Nov · away
Pick: Eintracht Frankfurt II 39% · missed
D
Kickers Offenbach1–1SGV Freiberg23 Oct · home
Pick: SGV Freiberg 41% · missed
L
SV Sandhausen1–0Kickers Offenbach16 Oct · away
Pick: Kickers Offenbach 43% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Freiburg II

D
Freiburg II1–1SSV Ulm 184631 Oct · home
Pick: Freiburg II 56% · missed
W
Freiburg II2–1Eintracht Frankfurt II27 Oct · home
Pick: Freiburg II 52% · hit
D
Kaiserslautern II2–2Freiburg II23 Oct · away
Pick: Kaiserslautern II 42% · missed
L
FC 08 Homburg2–1Freiburg II18 Oct · away
Pick: FC 08 Homburg 45% · hit
D
Freiburg II0–0VfR Mannheim30 Aug · home
Pick: Freiburg II 47% · missed

About this match

Kickers Offenbach and Freiburg II meet in Regionalliga - SudWest on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. The match is played at Bieberer Berg Stadion, Offenbach am Main. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Kickers Offenbach win 50.6%, draw 21.4%, Freiburg II win 27.9%. The pick is Kickers Offenbach win. Over 2.5 goals: 68.9%. Both teams to score: 60.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.