ScoreProb
III Liga - Group 2 Poland Group II - 11 2026

Kluczevia Stargard vs Lech Poznań II

Kluczevia Stargard Home · Elo 1,524
LIVE · 16'
1–2
Half time 1–2
Wed 4 Nov · 11:00 UTC
Lech Poznań II Away · Elo 1,521
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Pick published 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC, before kickoff
Pre-match probability, unchanged Model pick: Kluczevia Stargard win
Kluczevia Stargard winPick
43.4%
Draw
24.5%
Lech Poznań II win
32.1%

Timeline

Newest at the bottom

1'
GoalK. Jakobczyk
12'
Goal
Goal
16'

Lineups

Published about an hour before kickoff

Lineups are not out yet. They usually appear about an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. The prediction does not use lineups.

Live stats

Kluczevia Stargard left, Lech Poznań II right

Match statistics are not provided for this competition by our data source.

Our pre-match picks, right now

Updates with every goal. There is no in-play model: this is the pre-match pick against the live score.

Match resultPick: Kluczevia Stargard win · 43.4%
Behind: trailing 1–2
Both teams to scorePick: Yes · 62.0%
Already in
Over 2.5 goalsPick: Over · 63.8%
Already over 2.5
The pre-match numbers never change after kickoff. That is what makes the record verifiable.

Both teams to score

Yes62.0%
No38.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.563.8%
Under 2.536.2%

How much we know

Kluczevia Stargard history42 matches
Lech Poznań II history61 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Life of this match

Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
  3. Kickoff
    4 Nov · 11:00 UTC
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

Share this match

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How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Kluczevia Stargard are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,524 against 1,521. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.81 goals a game over 42 matches for Kluczevia Stargard, against 1.93 over 61 for Lech Poznań II.

  • Kluczevia Stargard concede fewer

    Kluczevia Stargard concede 1.40 a game, Lech Poznań II 1.61.

  • Kluczevia Stargard games more often go over 2.5 goals

    79% of Kluczevia Stargard matches, against 64% for Lech Poznań II. The model puts this match at 64% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Kluczevia Stargard
Lech Poznań II
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1524.5
ELO
1521.2
42
ELO · Matches
61
1524.5
Current Team ELO
1521.2
1521.2
Current Opponent ELO
1524.5
3.29
Current ELO Difference
-3.29
0.50
Expected score
0.50
42
History Matches
61
0.03
Residual Mean
0.02
52.03
Overperformance
51.15
0.14
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.00
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
2.00
3.00
Goals for per game
2.40
2.00
Goals against per game
1.80
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.40
2.40
Goals for per game
2.00
1.90
Goals against per game
2.00
50.0%
Win rate
40.0%
2.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.00
1.02
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.34
1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
1.04
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.34
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.57
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.95
Overall performance9 signals
90
42
Matches
61
1.48
PPG
1.48
42.9%
Win rate
41.0%
19.0%
Draw rate
24.6%
38.1%
Loss rate
34.4%
90.5%
Over 1.5 rate
88.5%
78.6%
Over 2.5 rate
63.9%
28.6%
Over 3.5 rate
47.5%
1.84
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.12
Venue performance10 signals
100
21
Matches
31
1.48
PPG
1.23
42.9%
Win rate
32.3%
19.0%
Draw rate
25.8%
38.1%
Loss rate
41.9%
81.0%
Over 1.5 rate
83.9%
81.0%
Over 2.5 rate
67.7%
19.0%
Over 3.5 rate
54.8%
1.74
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.09
21
History Matches
31
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.81
Goals for per game
1.93
88.1%
Scoring rate
82.0%
64.3%
BTTS rate
68.9%
1.52
Goals for per game
1.77
81.0%
Scoring rate
71.0%
57.1%
BTTS rate
67.7%
3.00
Goals for per game
2.40
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
80.0%
42
History Matches
61
1.81
Goals Mean
1.93
1.16
Goals Std
1.59
88.1%
Scored 1+ rate
82.0%
54.8%
Scored 2+ rate
52.5%
28.6%
Scored 3+ rate
31.1%
1.52
Venue Goals Mean
1.77
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.40
Goals against per game
1.61
71.4%
Conceding rate
83.6%
1.29
Goals against per game
1.90
66.7%
Conceding rate
90.3%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.80
100.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
42
History Matches
61
1.40
Conceded Mean
1.61
1.18
Conceded Std
1.20
45.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
45.9%
19.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
19.7%
1.29
Venue Conceded Mean
1.90
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
16.4%
11.9%
Failed-to-score rate
18.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
9.7%
19.0%
Failed-to-score rate
29.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
16.4%
11.9%
Failed-to-score rate
18.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
9.7%
19.0%
Failed-to-score rate
29.0%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
16.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
42
History Matches
61
0.95
Result entropy
0.98
1.84
Goal Difference Std
2.12
4.73
Stability score
1.91
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
40
Eligible Matches
54
14
Lead Matches
22
78.6%
Lead Win Rate
81.8%
0.81
Lead Points Retention
0.86
13
Trailing Matches
16
38.5%
Non-loss rate
18.8%
15.4%
Trailing Win Rate
12.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
40
Halftime Coverage Matches
54
0.63
First Half Goals For Mean
0.89
0.60
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
1.20
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.80
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.94
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
72.96
Rest days
73.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
25
Normal Rest History Matches
34
1.68
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.65
14
Long Rest History Matches
25
1.36
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.20
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
2.00
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
40.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
20.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
80.0%
Over 3.5 rate
60.0%
1.10
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.62
5
Current Competition Matches
5
2.20
Current Competition PPG
2.00
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.60
3
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.37
Portability PPG Std
0.34
0.84
Portability PPG Range
1.00
57.71
Portability Score
59.28
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
42
Clean History Matches
61
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO3.29
PPG0.00
GF-0.12
GA-0.20
PPG0.20
PPG0.25
PPG0.20
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-19
Clean-sheet rate12.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches-10
Clean-sheet rate23.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches-19
Goals Mean-0.12
Goals Std-0.43
Scored 1+ rate6.1%
Scored 2+ rate2.3%
Scored 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Goals Mean-0.25
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.32
History Matches-19
Conceded Mean-0.20
Conceded Std-0.03
Clean-sheet rate12.2%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.01
Conceded 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Conceded Mean-0.62
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.30
History Matches-19
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.29
Stability score2.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.38
Eligible Matches-14
Lead Matches-8
Lead Win Rate-0.03
Lead Points Retention-0.05
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate19.7%
Trailing Win Rate2.9%
Halftime Coverage Matches-14
First Half Goals For Mean-0.26
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.05
Second Half Goals For Mean0.20
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.14
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.40
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std0.02
Portability PPG Range-0.16
Portability Score-1.57
Rest days-0.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.00
Normal Rest History Matches-9
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.03
Long Rest History Matches-11
Long Rest Points Per Match0.16
Current Team ELO3.29
Current Opponent ELO-3.29
Current ELO Difference6.58
Expected score0.01
History Matches-19
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.88
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.14

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Kluczevia Stargard

W
Kluczevia Stargard1–0Kotwica Kórnik31 Oct · home
Pick: Kluczevia Stargard 66% · hit
D
Kluczevia Stargard2–2Flota Świnoujście24 Oct · home
Pick: Flota Świnoujście 38% · missed
W
Kluczevia Stargard3–2Luzino17 Oct · home
Pick: Luzino 45% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Lech Poznań II

W
Lech Poznań II8–1Flota Świnoujście31 Oct · home
Pick: Flota Świnoujście 41% · missed
W
Luzino2–4Lech Poznań II24 Oct · away
Pick: Luzino 54% · missed
L
Lech Poznań II2–3Polonia Środa18 Oct · home
Pick: Polonia Środa 51% · hit
L
Lech Poznań II1–4Wda Świecie14 Oct · home
Pick: Lech Poznań II 48% · missed
L
Lech Poznań II2–4Grom Nowy Staw29 Aug · home
Pick: Lech Poznań II 63% · missed

About this match

Kluczevia Stargard and Lech Poznań II meet in III Liga - Group 2 on Wednesday 4 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Kluczevia Stargard win 43.4%, draw 24.5%, Lech Poznań II win 32.1%. The pick is Kluczevia Stargard win. Over 2.5 goals: 63.8%. Both teams to score: 62.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.