ScoreProb
Oberliga - Bayern Nord Germany Bayern Nord - 18 2026

Kornburg vs DJK Bamberg

Kornburg Home · Elo 1,508
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
DJK Bamberg Away · Elo 1,450
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Kornburg win
Kornburg winPick
69.2%
Draw
19.3%
DJK Bamberg win
11.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.7%
No45.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.576.6%
Under 2.523.4%

How much we know

Kornburg history53 matches
DJK Bamberg history7 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 18:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (69.2%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Kornburg are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Kornburg are rated 58 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,508 against 1,450. On rating alone Kornburg would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Kornburg score more

    1.57 goals a game over 53 matches for Kornburg, against 1.14 over 7 for DJK Bamberg.

  • Kornburg concede fewer

    Kornburg concede 1.66 a game, DJK Bamberg 3.00.

  • DJK Bamberg games more often go over 2.5 goals

    58% of Kornburg matches, against 71% for DJK Bamberg. The model puts this match at 77% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 21 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Kornburg
DJK Bamberg
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1508.0
ELO
1449.8
53
ELO · Matches
7
1508.0
Current Team ELO
1449.8
1449.8
Current Opponent ELO
1508.0
58.20
Current ELO Difference
-58.20
0.58
Expected score
0.42
53
History Matches
7
0.00
Residual Mean
-0.34
50.12
Overperformance
41.07
0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.34
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.60
PPG
0.20
2.40
Goals for per game
1.20
0.60
Goals against per game
3.40
80.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
7
1.50
PPG
0.29
1.50
Goals for per game
1.14
2.20
Goals against per game
3.00
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.14
1.96
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.12
2.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
3.00
2.93
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.31
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.54
3.82
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.55
Overall performance9 signals
90
53
Matches
7
1.40
PPG
0.29
35.8%
Win rate
0.0%
32.1%
Draw rate
28.6%
32.1%
Loss rate
71.4%
81.1%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
58.5%
Over 2.5 rate
71.4%
41.5%
Over 3.5 rate
71.4%
2.59
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.55
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
3
1.56
PPG
0.00
44.0%
Win rate
0.0%
24.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
32.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
76.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
52.0%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
28.0%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
2.86
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.00
25
History Matches
3
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.57
Goals for per game
1.14
79.2%
Scoring rate
57.1%
58.5%
BTTS rate
57.1%
1.52
Goals for per game
1.33
80.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
52.0%
BTTS rate
66.7%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.14
85.7%
Scoring rate
57.1%
42.9%
BTTS rate
57.1%
53
History Matches
7
1.57
Goals Mean
1.14
1.55
Goals Std
1.12
79.2%
Scored 1+ rate
57.1%
37.7%
Scored 2+ rate
42.9%
15.1%
Scored 3+ rate
14.3%
1.52
Venue Goals Mean
1.33
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.66
Goals against per game
3.00
73.6%
Conceding rate
100.0%
1.40
Goals against per game
3.33
64.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
0.71
Goals against per game
3.00
42.9%
Conceding rate
100.0%
53
History Matches
7
1.66
Conceded Mean
3.00
1.78
Conceded Std
1.31
43.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
100.0%
22.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
42.9%
1.40
Venue Conceded Mean
3.33
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
26.4%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
20.8%
Failed-to-score rate
42.9%
36.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
57.1%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
42.9%
26.4%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
20.8%
Failed-to-score rate
42.9%
36.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
26.4%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
53
History Matches
7
1.00
Result entropy
0.54
2.59
Goal Difference Std
1.55
0.13
Stability score
45.54
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
51
Eligible Matches
7
18
Lead Matches
2
61.1%
Lead Win Rate
0.0%
0.72
Lead Points Retention
0.17
11
Trailing Matches
3
18.2%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
9.1%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
51
Halftime Coverage Matches
7
0.78
First Half Goals For Mean
0.86
0.59
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.43
0.80
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.29
1.04
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.57
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
28
Normal Rest History Matches
4
1.61
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.25
22
Long Rest History Matches
1
1.14
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
7
Matches
7
2.14
PPG
0.29
57.1%
Win rate
0.0%
42.9%
Draw rate
28.6%
0.0%
Loss rate
71.4%
57.1%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
28.6%
Over 2.5 rate
71.4%
28.6%
Over 3.5 rate
71.4%
1.67
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.55
7
Current Competition Matches
7
2.14
Current Competition PPG
0.29
1.29
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.86
5
Competition Season Count
1
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.78
Portability PPG Std
—
2.14
Portability PPG Range
—
39.00
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
53
Clean History Matches
7
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
ELO58.20
PPG1.11
GF0.42
GA-1.34
PPG1.86
PPG1.56
PPG2.40
PPG1.21
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches46
Clean-sheet rate26.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.22
History Matches22
Clean-sheet rate36.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches46
Goals Mean0.42
Goals Std0.42
Scored 1+ rate22.1%
Scored 2+ rate-0.05
Scored 3+ rate0.8%
Venue Goals Mean0.19
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.36
Recent 10 Goals Std0.84
History Matches46
Conceded Mean-1.34
Conceded Std0.47
Clean-sheet rate26.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.57
Conceded 3+ rate-0.20
Venue Conceded Mean-1.93
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std1.62
History Matches46
Result entropy0.45
Goal Difference Std1.03
Stability score-45.42
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.45
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std2.27
Eligible Matches44
Lead Matches16
Lead Win Rate61.1%
Lead Points Retention0.56
Trailing Matches8
Non-loss rate18.2%
Trailing Win Rate9.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches44
First Half Goals For Mean-0.07
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.84
Second Half Goals For Mean0.52
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.53
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.86
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean3.14
Competition Season Count4
Eligible Competition Season Count3
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.50
Normal Rest History Matches24
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.36
Long Rest History Matches21
Long Rest Points Per Match1.14
Current Team ELO58.20
Current Opponent ELO-58.20
Current ELO Difference116.4
Expected score0.17
History Matches46
Residual Mean0.35
Overperformance9.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.42

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Kornburg

W
Kornburg3–0Cham30 Oct · home
Pick: Cham 42% · missed
W
Kornburg3–1Neudrossenfeld16 Oct · home
Pick: Kornburg 59% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

DJK Bamberg

D
ASV Neumarkt0–0DJK Bamberg31 Oct · away
Pick: ASV Neumarkt 63% · missed
W
DJK Bamberg4–1Ammerthal23 Oct · home
Pick: Ammerthal 47% · missed
L
Großbardorf3–1DJK Bamberg16 Oct · away
Pick: Großbardorf 59% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Kornburg and DJK Bamberg meet in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 18:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Kornburg win 69.2%, draw 19.3%, DJK Bamberg win 11.4%. The pick is Kornburg win. Over 2.5 goals: 76.6%. Both teams to score: 54.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.