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4. liga - Divizie A Czechia Group A - 15 2026

Křimice vs Nyrsko

Křimice Home · Elo 1,573
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Nyrsko Away · Elo 1,470
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Křimice win
Křimice winPick
88.1%
Draw
6.9%
Nyrsko win
5.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.8%
No46.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.587.4%
Under 2.512.6%

How much we know

Křimice history35 matches
Nyrsko history3 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 0 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 09:15 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 80%+ band (88.1%). Picks in that band won 83.1% of the time, and the model said 84.5% on average, over 177 matches. This band has few matches, so treat the figures with care.

Why Křimice are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Křimice are rated 103 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,573 against 1,470. On rating alone Křimice would be expected to take 64% of the points on offer.

  • Křimice score far more

    2.26 goals a game over 35 matches for Křimice, against 1.33 over 3 for Nyrsko.

  • Křimice concede fewer

    Křimice concede 0.97 a game, Nyrsko 5.00.

  • Nyrsko games more often go over 2.5 goals

    69% of Křimice matches, against 100% for Nyrsko. The model puts this match at 87% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Křimice
Nyrsko@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1573.1
ELO
1469.8
35
ELO · Matches
3
1573.1
Current Team ELO
1469.8
1469.8
Current Opponent ELO
1573.1
103.2
Current ELO Difference
-103.2
0.64
Expected score
0.36
35
History Matches
3
0.10
Residual Mean
-0.47
56.32
Overperformance
43.85
0.14
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.47
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
3
2.40
PPG
0.00
2.60
Goals for per game
1.33
0.80
Goals against per game
5.00
80.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
3
2.20
PPG
0.00
2.10
Goals for per game
1.33
0.80
Goals against per game
5.00
70.0%
Win rate
0.0%
2.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.33
1.51
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.94
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
5.00
0.98
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.82
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.00
2.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.70
Overall performance9 signals
90
35
Matches
3
1.91
PPG
0.00
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
11.4%
Draw rate
0.0%
28.6%
Loss rate
100.0%
91.4%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
68.6%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
34.3%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
2.21
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.70
Venue performance10 signals
100
17
Matches
1
1.65
PPG
0.00
52.9%
Win rate
0.0%
5.9%
Draw rate
0.0%
41.2%
Loss rate
100.0%
88.2%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
76.5%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
35.3%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
2.36
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
17
History Matches
1
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.26
Goals for per game
1.33
88.6%
Scoring rate
66.7%
51.4%
BTTS rate
66.7%
2.29
Goals for per game
2.00
82.4%
Scoring rate
100.0%
52.9%
BTTS rate
100.0%
1.67
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
100.0%
35
History Matches
3
2.26
Goals Mean
1.33
1.63
Goals Std
0.94
88.6%
Scored 1+ rate
66.7%
62.9%
Scored 2+ rate
66.7%
37.1%
Scored 3+ rate
0.0%
2.29
Venue Goals Mean
2.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.97
Goals against per game
5.00
62.9%
Conceding rate
100.0%
1.12
Goals against per game
5.00
70.6%
Conceding rate
100.0%
1.33
Goals against per game
4.50
66.7%
Conceding rate
100.0%
35
History Matches
3
0.97
Conceded Mean
5.00
0.88
Conceded Std
0.82
31.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
100.0%
2.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
100.0%
1.12
Venue Conceded Mean
5.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
37.1%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
11.4%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
29.4%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
17.6%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
37.1%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
11.4%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
29.4%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
17.6%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
37.1%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
35
History Matches
3
0.83
Result entropy
0.00
2.21
Goal Difference Std
1.70
16.96
Stability score
100.0
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
34
Eligible Matches
3
20
Lead Matches
0
85.0%
Lead Win Rate
—
0.87
Lead Points Retention
—
8
Trailing Matches
3
25.0%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
34
Halftime Coverage Matches
3
1.24
First Half Goals For Mean
0.33
0.44
First Half Goals Against Mean
3.33
1.03
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.53
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.67
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
83.76
Rest days
82.76
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
18
Normal Rest History Matches
0
2.06
Normal Rest Points Per Match
—
14
Long Rest History Matches
2
1.93
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
2
2.00
PPG
0.00
66.7%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1.70
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
3
Current Competition Matches
2
2.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-2.50
5
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
0
0.07
Portability PPG Std
—
0.14
Portability PPG Range
—
87.50
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
35
Clean History Matches
3
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreLead Win RateLead Points RetentionPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per Match
ELO103.2
PPG1.91
GF0.92
GA-4.03
PPG2.00
PPG1.65
PPG2.40
PPG2.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches32
Clean-sheet rate37.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.22
History Matches16
Clean-sheet rate29.4%
Failed-to-score rate17.6%
History Matches32
Goals Mean0.92
Goals Std0.68
Scored 1+ rate21.9%
Scored 2+ rate-0.04
Scored 3+ rate37.1%
Venue Goals Mean0.29
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.77
Recent 10 Goals Std0.57
History Matches32
Conceded Mean-4.03
Conceded Std0.06
Clean-sheet rate37.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.69
Conceded 3+ rate-0.97
Venue Conceded Mean-3.88
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-4.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.16
History Matches32
Result entropy0.83
Goal Difference Std0.51
Stability score-83.04
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.73
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.40
Eligible Matches31
Lead Matches20
Trailing Matches5
Non-loss rate25.0%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches31
First Half Goals For Mean0.90
First Half Goals Against Mean-2.89
Second Half Goals For Mean0.03
Second Half Goals Against Mean-1.14
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.83
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Rest days1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest History Matches18
Long Rest History Matches12
Long Rest Points Per Match1.93
Current Team ELO103.2
Current Opponent ELO-103.2
Current ELO Difference206.5
Expected score0.29
History Matches32
Residual Mean0.57
Overperformance12.48
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.61

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Křimice

W
Doubravka2–3Křimice31 Oct · away
Pick: Doubravka 42% · missed
W
Křimice5–2Milevsko24 Oct · home
Pick: Křimice 64% · hit
D
Táborsko II1–1Křimice17 Oct · away
Pick: Táborsko II 46% · missed
L
Křimice1–2Komárov29 Aug · home
Pick: Křimice 58% · missed
L
Křimice1–2Teplice26 Aug · home
Pick: Teplice 46% · hit

Nyrsko

L
Nyrsko0–2Doubravka7 Nov · home
Pick: Doubravka 57% · hit
L
Milevsko2–1Nyrsko1 Nov · away
Pick: Milevsko 76% · hit
L
Nyrsko1–4Táborsko II24 Oct · home
Pick: Táborsko II 53% · hit
D
Spartak Soběslav2–2Nyrsko17 Oct · away
Pick: Spartak Soběslav 86% · missed
L
Nyrsko1–2Rokycany29 Aug · home
Pick: Rokycany 56% · hit

About this match

Křimice and Nyrsko meet in 4. liga - Divizie A on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 09:15 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Křimice win 88.1%, draw 6.9%, Nyrsko win 5.0%. The pick is Křimice win. Over 2.5 goals: 87.4%. Both teams to score: 53.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.