ScoreProb
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D Portugal Group D - 8 2026

Lagoa vs Real

Lagoa Home · Elo 1,499
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Real Away · Elo 1,407
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Lagoa win
Lagoa winPick
67.2%
Draw
18.3%
Real win
14.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes42.1%
No57.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.553.3%
Under 2.546.7%

How much we know

Lagoa history40 matches
Real history13 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,274 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,668
40–49% Won 45.5% · said 44.8% · n 6,228
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,755
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,872
70–79% Won 76.3% · said 73.9% · n 587
80%+ Won 83.5% · said 84.5% · n 164
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (67.2%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,872 matches.

Why Lagoa are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Lagoa are rated 91 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,499 against 1,407. On rating alone Lagoa would be expected to take 63% of the points on offer.

  • Lagoa score far more

    1.35 goals a game over 40 matches for Lagoa, against 0.23 over 13 for Real.

  • Lagoa concede fewer

    Lagoa concede 1.33 a game, Real 1.69.

  • Lagoa games more often go over 2.5 goals

    53% of Lagoa matches, against 38% for Real. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Lagoa
Real@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1498.8
ELO
1407.5
40
ELO · Matches
13
1498.8
Current Team ELO
1407.5
1407.5
Current Opponent ELO
1498.8
91.26
Current ELO Difference
-91.26
0.63
Expected score
0.37
40
History Matches
13
-0.01
Residual Mean
-0.35
49.32
Overperformance
36.32
0.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.31
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
0.40
1.40
Goals for per game
0.20
1.00
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
0.20
1.30
Goals for per game
0.20
1.20
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.20
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.40
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
1.17
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.11
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.46
1.92
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.02
Overall performance9 signals
90
40
Matches
13
1.25
PPG
0.15
32.5%
Win rate
0.0%
27.5%
Draw rate
15.4%
40.0%
Loss rate
84.6%
77.5%
Over 1.5 rate
53.8%
52.5%
Over 2.5 rate
38.5%
22.5%
Over 3.5 rate
15.4%
1.88
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.93
Venue performance10 signals
100
18
Matches
6
1.61
PPG
0.33
44.4%
Win rate
0.0%
27.8%
Draw rate
33.3%
27.8%
Loss rate
66.7%
72.2%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
61.1%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
27.8%
Over 3.5 rate
16.7%
2.11
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.11
18
History Matches
6
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.35
Goals for per game
0.23
72.5%
Scoring rate
23.1%
57.5%
BTTS rate
23.1%
1.61
Goals for per game
0.17
72.2%
Scoring rate
16.7%
50.0%
BTTS rate
16.7%
0.50
Goals for per game
—
50.0%
Scoring rate
—
50.0%
BTTS rate
—
40
History Matches
13
1.35
Goals Mean
0.23
1.35
Goals Std
0.42
72.5%
Scored 1+ rate
23.1%
35.0%
Scored 2+ rate
0.0%
12.5%
Scored 3+ rate
0.0%
1.61
Venue Goals Mean
0.17
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.33
Goals against per game
1.69
77.5%
Conceding rate
84.6%
1.22
Goals against per game
1.50
61.1%
Conceding rate
66.7%
1.00
Goals against per game
—
100.0%
Conceding rate
—
40
History Matches
13
1.33
Conceded Mean
1.69
1.17
Conceded Std
1.07
32.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
53.8%
12.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
30.8%
1.22
Venue Conceded Mean
1.50
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
22.5%
Clean-sheet rate
15.4%
27.5%
Failed-to-score rate
76.9%
38.9%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
27.8%
Failed-to-score rate
83.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
—
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
—
22.5%
Clean-sheet rate
15.4%
27.5%
Failed-to-score rate
76.9%
38.9%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
27.8%
Failed-to-score rate
83.3%
22.5%
Clean-sheet rate
15.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
40
History Matches
13
0.99
Result entropy
0.39
1.88
Goal Difference Std
0.93
1.07
Stability score
60.92
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
40
Eligible Matches
13
15
Lead Matches
1
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
0.0%
0.73
Lead Points Retention
0.00
13
Trailing Matches
5
23.1%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
40
Halftime Coverage Matches
13
0.58
First Half Goals For Mean
0.15
0.60
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.62
0.78
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.08
0.73
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.08
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.96
Rest days
468.9
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
20
Normal Rest History Matches
9
1.20
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.22
19
Long Rest History Matches
2
1.21
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
0
0.50
PPG
—
0.0%
Win rate
—
50.0%
Draw rate
—
50.0%
Loss rate
—
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
—
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
—
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
—
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
2
Current Competition Matches
0
0.50
Current Competition PPG
—
-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
—
4
Competition Season Count
1
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.30
Portability PPG Std
—
0.59
Portability PPG Range
—
62.86
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
40
Clean History Matches
13
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO91.26
PPG1.10
GF1.12
GA-0.37
PPG1.28
PPG1.00
PPG1.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches27
Clean-sheet rate7.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.49
History Matches12
Clean-sheet rate5.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.56
History Matches27
Goals Mean1.12
Goals Std0.93
Scored 1+ rate49.4%
Scored 2+ rate35.0%
Scored 3+ rate12.5%
Venue Goals Mean1.44
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.70
History Matches27
Conceded Mean-0.37
Conceded Std0.10
Clean-sheet rate7.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.21
Conceded 3+ rate-0.18
Venue Conceded Mean-0.28
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.05
History Matches27
Result entropy0.60
Goal Difference Std0.95
Stability score-59.85
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.50
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.90
Eligible Matches27
Lead Matches14
Lead Win Rate66.7%
Lead Points Retention0.73
Trailing Matches8
Non-loss rate23.1%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches27
First Half Goals For Mean0.42
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals For Mean0.70
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.35
Current Competition Matches2
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days-391.9
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches11
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.98
Long Rest History Matches17
Long Rest Points Per Match1.21
Current Team ELO91.26
Current Opponent ELO-91.26
Current ELO Difference182.5
Expected score0.26
History Matches27
Residual Mean0.34
Overperformance13.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.30

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Lagoa

L
Vitoria Setubal3–1Lagoa1 Nov · away
Pick: Lagoa 56% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Real

W
Real1–01º Dezembro31 Oct · home
Pick: 1º Dezembro 49% · missed
W
Real3–1São Paulo RS24 Oct · home
Pick: São Paulo RS 46% · missed
W
Real4–1Juventude Évora24 Oct · home
Pick: Juventude Évora 50% · missed
W
Clube 19920–8Real18 Oct · away
Pick: Real 39% · hit
W
SC Rio Grande1–2Real14 Oct · away
Pick: SC Rio Grande 41% · missed

About this match

Lagoa and Real meet in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Lagoa win 67.2%, draw 18.3%, Real win 14.5%. The pick is Lagoa win. Over 2.5 goals: 53.3%. Both teams to score: 42.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.