ScoreProb
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D Portugal Group D - 8 2026

Sintrense vs Vitoria Setubal

Sintrense Home · Elo 1,561
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Vitoria Setubal Away · Elo 1,479
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Sintrense win
Sintrense winPick
84.0%
Draw
9.4%
Vitoria Setubal win
6.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.2%
No49.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.575.2%
Under 2.524.8%

How much we know

Sintrense history43 matches
Vitoria Setubal history2 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 80%+ band (84.0%). Picks in that band won 83.3% of the time, and the model said 84.5% on average, over 162 matches. This band has few matches, so treat the figures with care.

Why Sintrense are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Sintrense are rated 82 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,561 against 1,479. On rating alone Sintrense would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.

  • Vitoria Setubal score more

    1.35 goals a game over 43 matches for Sintrense, against 1.50 over 2 for Vitoria Setubal.

  • Sintrense concede fewer

    Sintrense concede 1.12 a game, Vitoria Setubal 3.50.

  • Vitoria Setubal games more often go over 2.5 goals

    53% of Sintrense matches, against 100% for Vitoria Setubal. The model puts this match at 75% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Sintrense
Vitoria Setubal@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1561.3
ELO
1479.2
43
ELO · Matches
2
1561.3
Current Team ELO
1479.2
1479.2
Current Opponent ELO
1561.3
82.14
Current ELO Difference
-82.14
0.62
Expected score
0.38
43
History Matches
2
0.06
Residual Mean
-0.52
54.36
Overperformance
45.26
0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.52
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
2
2.20
PPG
0.00
2.00
Goals for per game
1.50
0.60
Goals against per game
3.50
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
2
1.80
PPG
0.00
1.60
Goals for per game
1.50
0.70
Goals against per game
3.50
50.0%
Win rate
0.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
1.43
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.50
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
3.50
0.78
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.50
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.00
1.87
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.00
Overall performance9 signals
90
43
Matches
2
1.65
PPG
0.00
46.5%
Win rate
0.0%
25.6%
Draw rate
0.0%
27.9%
Loss rate
100.0%
76.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
53.5%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
16.3%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1.41
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.00
Venue performance10 signals
100
20
Matches
1
1.80
PPG
0.00
50.0%
Win rate
0.0%
30.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
20.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
85.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1.43
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
20
History Matches
1
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.35
Goals for per game
1.50
76.7%
Scoring rate
100.0%
60.5%
BTTS rate
100.0%
1.60
Goals for per game
2.00
85.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
70.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
3.00
Goals for per game
1.50
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
43
History Matches
2
1.35
Goals Mean
1.50
1.08
Goals Std
0.50
76.7%
Scored 1+ rate
100.0%
41.9%
Scored 2+ rate
50.0%
9.3%
Scored 3+ rate
0.0%
1.60
Venue Goals Mean
2.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.12
Goals against per game
3.50
76.7%
Conceding rate
100.0%
1.05
Goals against per game
4.00
80.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
1.00
Goals against per game
3.50
50.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
43
History Matches
2
1.12
Conceded Mean
3.50
0.81
Conceded Std
0.50
30.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
100.0%
4.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
100.0%
1.05
Venue Conceded Mean
4.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
23.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
23.3%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
15.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
23.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
23.3%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
15.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
23.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
43
History Matches
2
0.97
Result entropy
0.00
1.41
Goal Difference Std
0.00
3.43
Stability score
100.0
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
42
Eligible Matches
2
16
Lead Matches
0
81.3%
Lead Win Rate
—
0.88
Lead Points Retention
—
8
Trailing Matches
2
12.5%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
42
Halftime Coverage Matches
2
0.71
First Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.48
First Half Goals Against Mean
2.00
0.67
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.67
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.50
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
76.96
Rest days
76.96
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
24
Normal Rest History Matches
1
1.42
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.00
18
Long Rest History Matches
0
1.89
Long Rest Points Per Match
—
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
2.00
PPG
0.00
50.0%
Win rate
0.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
2.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
2.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-2.00
5
Competition Season Count
1
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
0
0.19
Portability PPG Std
—
0.46
Portability PPG Range
—
72.48
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
43
Clean History Matches
2
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreLead Win RateLead Points RetentionPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per Match
ELO82.14
PPG1.65
GF-0.15
GA-2.38
PPG2.00
PPG1.80
PPG2.20
PPG1.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches41
Clean-sheet rate23.3%
Failed-to-score rate23.3%
History Matches19
Clean-sheet rate20.0%
Failed-to-score rate15.0%
History Matches41
Goals Mean-0.15
Goals Std0.58
Scored 1+ rate-0.23
Scored 2+ rate-0.08
Scored 3+ rate9.3%
Venue Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.93
History Matches41
Conceded Mean-2.38
Conceded Std0.31
Clean-sheet rate23.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.70
Conceded 3+ rate-0.95
Venue Conceded Mean-2.95
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-2.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.28
History Matches41
Result entropy0.97
Goal Difference Std1.41
Stability score-96.57
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.94
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.87
Eligible Matches40
Lead Matches16
Trailing Matches6
Non-loss rate12.5%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches40
First Half Goals For Mean-0.29
First Half Goals Against Mean-1.52
Second Half Goals For Mean0.17
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.83
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean4.00
Competition Season Count4
Eligible Competition Season Count3
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches23
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.42
Long Rest History Matches18
Current Team ELO82.14
Current Opponent ELO-82.14
Current ELO Difference164.3
Expected score0.23
History Matches41
Residual Mean0.58
Overperformance9.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.60

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Sintrense

W
Lajense0–2Sintrense1 Nov · away
Pick: Sintrense 47% · hit
W
Sintrense2–1Amora25 Oct · home
Pick: Sintrense 39% · hit
W
Caldas1–3Sintrense30 Aug · away
Pick: Caldas 41% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Vitoria Setubal

W
Vitoria Setubal3–1Lagoa1 Nov · home
Pick: Lagoa 56% · missed
L
1º Dezembro1–0Vitoria Setubal25 Oct · away
Pick: 1º Dezembro 47% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Sintrense and Vitoria Setubal meet in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Sintrense win 84.0%, draw 9.4%, Vitoria Setubal win 6.6%. The pick is Sintrense win. Over 2.5 goals: 75.2%. Both teams to score: 50.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.