ScoreProb
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D Portugal Group D - 8 2026

1º Dezembro vs Juventude Évora

1º Dezembro Home · Elo 1,455
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Juventude Évora Away · Elo 1,555
Campo Conde de Sucena Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Juventude Évora win
1º Dezembro win
22.0%
Draw
32.1%
Juventude Évora winPick
45.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.6%
No51.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.551.6%
Under 2.548.4%

How much we know

1º Dezembro history47 matches
Juventude Évora history27 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (45.9%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Juventude Évora are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Juventude Évora are rated 101 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,555 against 1,455. On rating alone Juventude Évora would be expected to take 64% of the points on offer.

  • Juventude Évora score more

    1.02 goals a game over 47 matches for 1º Dezembro, against 1.37 over 27 for Juventude Évora.

  • Juventude Évora concede fewer

    1º Dezembro concede 1.53 a game, Juventude Évora 0.93.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    45% of 1º Dezembro matches, against 44% for Juventude Évora. The model puts this match at 52% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 17 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
1º Dezembro
Juventude Évora@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1454.6
ELO
1555.4
47
ELO · Matches
27
1454.6
Current Team ELO
1555.4
1555.4
Current Opponent ELO
1454.6
-100.9
Current ELO Difference
100.9
0.36
Expected score
0.64
47
History Matches
27
-0.05
Residual Mean
0.10
46.59
Overperformance
56.01
0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.15
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
2.60
0.80
Goals for per game
2.40
1.80
Goals against per game
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.90
1.30
Goals for per game
1.90
1.70
Goals against per game
1.10
40.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.04
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.79
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.70
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.54
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.25
Overall performance9 signals
90
47
Matches
27
1.09
PPG
1.70
27.7%
Win rate
44.4%
25.5%
Draw rate
37.0%
46.8%
Loss rate
18.5%
74.5%
Over 1.5 rate
74.1%
44.7%
Over 2.5 rate
44.4%
23.4%
Over 3.5 rate
14.8%
1.71
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.29
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
13
1.13
PPG
1.31
26.1%
Win rate
30.8%
34.8%
Draw rate
38.5%
39.1%
Loss rate
30.8%
69.6%
Over 1.5 rate
69.2%
39.1%
Over 2.5 rate
53.8%
17.4%
Over 3.5 rate
15.4%
1.43
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.44
23
History Matches
13
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.02
Goals for per game
1.37
68.1%
Scoring rate
77.8%
53.2%
BTTS rate
59.3%
0.96
Goals for per game
1.15
69.6%
Scoring rate
69.2%
60.9%
BTTS rate
53.8%
0.00
Goals for per game
3.00
0.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
47
History Matches
27
1.02
Goals Mean
1.37
1.04
Goals Std
1.06
68.1%
Scored 1+ rate
77.8%
21.3%
Scored 2+ rate
40.7%
6.4%
Scored 3+ rate
14.8%
0.96
Venue Goals Mean
1.15
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.53
Goals against per game
0.93
80.9%
Conceding rate
70.4%
1.30
Goals against per game
1.08
82.6%
Conceding rate
69.2%
5.00
Goals against per game
2.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
47
History Matches
27
1.53
Conceded Mean
0.93
1.29
Conceded Std
0.77
38.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
18.5%
21.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
3.7%
1.30
Venue Conceded Mean
1.08
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
19.1%
Clean-sheet rate
29.6%
31.9%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
17.4%
Clean-sheet rate
30.8%
30.4%
Failed-to-score rate
30.8%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
19.1%
Clean-sheet rate
29.6%
31.9%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
17.4%
Clean-sheet rate
30.8%
30.4%
Failed-to-score rate
30.8%
19.1%
Clean-sheet rate
29.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
47
History Matches
27
0.96
Result entropy
0.95
1.71
Goal Difference Std
1.29
3.57
Stability score
5.28
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
47
Eligible Matches
27
8
Lead Matches
10
37.5%
Lead Win Rate
70.0%
0.54
Lead Points Retention
0.80
17
Trailing Matches
4
5.9%
Non-loss rate
50.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
25.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
47
Halftime Coverage Matches
27
0.47
First Half Goals For Mean
0.52
0.79
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.19
0.55
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.85
0.74
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.74
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
83.96
Rest days
83.96
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
24
Normal Rest History Matches
13
1.50
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.77
22
Long Rest History Matches
13
0.68
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.69
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
0.00
PPG
3.00
0.0%
Win rate
100.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
0.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
-5.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
4
Competition Season Count
3
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.34
Portability PPG Std
—
0.75
Portability PPG Range
—
59.67
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
47
Clean History Matches
27
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-100.9
PPG-0.62
GF-0.35
GA0.61
PPG-3.00
PPG-0.18
PPG-1.40
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches20
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Failed-to-score rate9.7%
History Matches10
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Failed-to-score rate0.00
History Matches20
Goals Mean-0.35
Goals Std-0.02
Scored 1+ rate-0.10
Scored 2+ rate-0.19
Scored 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std0.06
History Matches20
Conceded Mean0.61
Conceded Std0.52
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Conceded 2+ rate19.8%
Conceded 3+ rate17.6%
Venue Conceded Mean0.23
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std1.09
History Matches20
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std0.43
Stability score-1.71
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.29
Eligible Matches20
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate-0.33
Lead Points Retention-0.26
Trailing Matches13
Non-loss rate-0.44
Trailing Win Rate-0.25
Halftime Coverage Matches20
First Half Goals For Mean-0.05
First Half Goals Against Mean0.60
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.30
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.00
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-6.00
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches11
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.27
Long Rest History Matches9
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.01
Current Team ELO-100.9
Current Opponent ELO100.9
Current ELO Difference-201.7
Expected score-0.28
History Matches20
Residual Mean-0.15
Overperformance-9.42
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.14

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

1º Dezembro

L
Real1–01º Dezembro31 Oct · away
Pick: 1º Dezembro 49% · missed
W
1º Dezembro1–0Vitoria Setubal25 Oct · home
Pick: 1º Dezembro 47% · hit
L
1º Dezembro0–1Real30 Aug · home
Pick: 1º Dezembro 59% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Juventude Évora

W
Juventude Évora2–0Imortal Albufeira1 Nov · home
Pick: Juventude Évora 46% · hit
L
Real4–1Juventude Évora24 Oct · away
Pick: Juventude Évora 50% · missed
L
Lajense2–0Juventude Évora4 Oct · away
Pick: Juventude Évora 42% · missed
W
União Montemor1–4Juventude Évora30 Aug · away
Pick: Juventude Évora 38% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

1º Dezembro and Juventude Évora meet in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Campo Conde de Sucena. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: 1º Dezembro win 22.0%, draw 32.1%, Juventude Évora win 45.9%. The pick is Juventude Évora win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.6%. Both teams to score: 48.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.