ScoreProb
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D Portugal Group D - 8 2026

Portel vs Amora

Portel Home · Elo 1,495
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Amora Away · Elo 1,483
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Amora win
Portel win
30.6%
Draw
32.3%
Amora winPick
37.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.6%
No47.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.557.2%
Under 2.542.8%

How much we know

Portel history3 matches
Amora history48 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,274 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,668
40–49% Won 45.5% · said 44.8% · n 6,228
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,755
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,872
70–79% Won 76.3% · said 73.9% · n 587
80%+ Won 83.5% · said 84.5% · n 164
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.1%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,668 matches.

Why Amora are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,495 against 1,483. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Portel score more

    1.33 goals a game over 3 matches for Portel, against 1.08 over 48 for Amora.

  • Amora concede fewer

    Portel concede 2.33 a game, Amora 1.15.

  • Portel games more often go over 2.5 goals

    100% of Portel matches, against 42% for Amora. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Portel
Amora@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1495.2
ELO
1482.5
3
ELO · Matches
48
1495.2
Current Team ELO
1482.5
1482.5
Current Opponent ELO
1495.2
12.67
Current ELO Difference
-12.67
0.52
Expected score
0.48
3
History Matches
48
-0.11
Residual Mean
-0.02
48.58
Overperformance
48.42
-0.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.12
Recent form16 signals
160
3
Matches
5
0.67
PPG
1.40
1.33
Goals for per game
1.40
2.33
Goals against per game
1.20
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
3
Matches
10
0.67
PPG
1.00
1.33
Goals for per game
1.00
2.33
Goals against per game
1.50
0.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.33
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
0.94
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.89
2.33
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
0.47
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.02
0.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.41
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.57
Overall performance9 signals
90
3
Matches
48
0.67
PPG
1.33
0.0%
Win rate
35.4%
66.7%
Draw rate
27.1%
33.3%
Loss rate
37.5%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
70.8%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
41.7%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
14.6%
1.41
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.49
Venue performance10 signals
100
1
Matches
25
1.00
PPG
1.48
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
100.0%
Draw rate
28.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
32.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
64.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.30
1
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.33
Goals for per game
1.08
66.7%
Scoring rate
72.9%
66.7%
BTTS rate
47.9%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.04
100.0%
Scoring rate
68.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
48.0%
2.00
Goals for per game
3.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
3
History Matches
48
1.33
Goals Mean
1.08
0.94
Goals Std
0.89
66.7%
Scored 1+ rate
72.9%
66.7%
Scored 2+ rate
27.1%
0.0%
Scored 3+ rate
8.3%
2.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.04
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.33
Goals against per game
1.15
100.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.04
100.0%
Conceding rate
64.0%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
3
History Matches
48
2.33
Conceded Mean
1.15
0.47
Conceded Std
1.06
100.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
33.3%
33.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.5%
2.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.04
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
27.1%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
36.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
32.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
27.1%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
36.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
32.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
3
History Matches
48
0.58
Result entropy
0.99
1.41
Goal Difference Std
1.49
42.06
Stability score
0.86
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
3
Eligible Matches
47
1
Lead Matches
10
0.0%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
0.33
Lead Points Retention
0.80
0
Trailing Matches
15
—
Non-loss rate
20.0%
—
Trailing Win Rate
6.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
3
Halftime Coverage Matches
47
0.67
First Half Goals For Mean
0.40
0.00
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.49
0.67
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.66
2.33
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.64
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
76.96
Rest days
76.96
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
1
Normal Rest History Matches
27
1.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.19
1
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.55
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
1
1.00
PPG
3.00
0.0%
Win rate
100.0%
100.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
0.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
2
Current Competition Matches
1
1.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
2.00
2
Competition Season Count
6
0
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
—
Portability PPG Std
0.50
—
Portability PPG Range
1.18
—
Portability Score
50.12
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
3
Clean History Matches
48
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreNon-loss rateTrailing Win RatePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO12.67
PPG-0.67
GF0.25
GA1.19
PPG-2.00
PPG-0.48
PPG-0.73
PPG-0.33
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-45
Clean-sheet rate-0.33
Failed-to-score rate6.3%
History Matches-24
Clean-sheet rate-0.36
Failed-to-score rate-0.32
History Matches-45
Goals Mean0.25
Goals Std0.06
Scored 1+ rate-0.06
Scored 2+ rate39.6%
Scored 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Goals Mean0.96
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.33
Recent 10 Goals Std0.05
History Matches-45
Conceded Mean1.19
Conceded Std-0.59
Clean-sheet rate-0.33
Conceded 2+ rate66.7%
Conceded 3+ rate20.8%
Venue Conceded Mean0.96
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.83
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.55
History Matches-45
Result entropy-0.41
Goal Difference Std-0.08
Stability score41.21
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.24
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.15
Eligible Matches-44
Lead Matches-9
Lead Win Rate-0.80
Lead Points Retention-0.47
Trailing Matches-15
Halftime Coverage Matches-44
First Half Goals For Mean0.26
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.49
Second Half Goals For Mean0.01
Second Half Goals Against Mean1.70
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.00
Competition Season Count-4
Eligible Competition Season Count-3
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-26
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.19
Long Rest History Matches-19
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.55
Current Team ELO12.67
Current Opponent ELO-12.67
Current ELO Difference25.34
Expected score0.04
History Matches-45
Residual Mean-0.09
Overperformance0.16
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.02

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Portel

D
FC Serpa2–2Portel1 Nov · away
Pick: FC Serpa 63% · missed
D
Portel1–1Santa Clara B24 Oct · home
Pick: Portel 55% · missed
L
Lajense2–1Portel18 Oct · away
Pick: Lajense 53% · hit
W
Messejanense0–8Portel30 Aug · away
Pick: Portel 38% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Amora

L
Amora1–2Alcochetense1 Nov · home
Pick: Amora 55% · missed
L
Sintrense2–1Amora25 Oct · away
Pick: Sintrense 39% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Portel and Amora meet in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Portel win 30.6%, draw 32.3%, Amora win 37.1%. The pick is Amora win. Over 2.5 goals: 57.2%. Both teams to score: 52.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.