ScoreProb
Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 Spain Group 7 - 10 2026

Las Rozas vs Torrejón

Las Rozas Home · Elo 1,533
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Torrejón Away · Elo 1,566
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Torrejón win
Las Rozas win
33.6%
Draw
24.9%
Torrejón winPick
41.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes57.7%
No42.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.557.8%
Under 2.542.2%

How much we know

Las Rozas history52 matches
Torrejón history55 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 17:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Torrejón are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Torrejón are rated 34 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,566 against 1,533. On rating alone Torrejón would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.56 goals a game over 52 matches for Las Rozas, against 1.56 over 55 for Torrejón.

  • Defences are close

    Las Rozas concede 1.29 a game, Torrejón 1.35.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    56% of Las Rozas matches, against 55% for Torrejón. The model puts this match at 58% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 7 Jun 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Las Rozas
Torrejón
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1532.6
ELO
1566.1
52
ELO · Matches
55
1532.6
Current Team ELO
1566.1
1566.1
Current Opponent ELO
1532.6
-33.52
Current ELO Difference
33.52
0.45
Expected score
0.55
52
History Matches
55
0.03
Residual Mean
0.06
51.92
Overperformance
54.64
-0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.40
1.40
Goals for per game
1.00
1.40
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.80
1.70
Goals for per game
1.50
1.60
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
1.42
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.12
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.62
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.02
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.30
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.22
Overall performance9 signals
90
52
Matches
55
1.58
PPG
1.67
44.2%
Win rate
45.5%
25.0%
Draw rate
30.9%
30.8%
Loss rate
23.6%
76.9%
Over 1.5 rate
72.7%
55.8%
Over 2.5 rate
54.5%
28.8%
Over 3.5 rate
36.4%
1.95
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.36
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
26
1.76
PPG
1.54
52.0%
Win rate
42.3%
20.0%
Draw rate
26.9%
28.0%
Loss rate
30.8%
76.0%
Over 1.5 rate
73.1%
56.0%
Over 2.5 rate
57.7%
32.0%
Over 3.5 rate
38.5%
2.12
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.19
25
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.56
Goals for per game
1.56
82.7%
Scoring rate
83.6%
57.7%
BTTS rate
63.6%
1.80
Goals for per game
1.46
88.0%
Scoring rate
80.8%
60.0%
BTTS rate
61.5%
52
History Matches
55
1.56
Goals Mean
1.56
1.46
Goals Std
1.16
82.7%
Scored 1+ rate
83.6%
42.3%
Scored 2+ rate
41.8%
15.4%
Scored 3+ rate
23.6%
1.80
Venue Goals Mean
1.46
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.29
Goals against per game
1.35
69.2%
Conceding rate
72.7%
1.36
Goals against per game
1.42
68.0%
Conceding rate
73.1%
52
History Matches
55
1.29
Conceded Mean
1.35
1.21
Conceded Std
1.13
34.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
41.8%
19.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.4%
1.36
Venue Conceded Mean
1.42
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
30.8%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
17.3%
Failed-to-score rate
16.4%
32.0%
Clean-sheet rate
26.9%
12.0%
Failed-to-score rate
19.2%
30.8%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
17.3%
Failed-to-score rate
16.4%
32.0%
Clean-sheet rate
26.9%
12.0%
Failed-to-score rate
19.2%
30.8%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
52
History Matches
55
0.97
Result entropy
0.97
1.95
Goal Difference Std
1.36
2.60
Stability score
3.31
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
52
Eligible Matches
55
18
Lead Matches
17
72.2%
Lead Win Rate
76.5%
0.78
Lead Points Retention
0.82
13
Trailing Matches
7
15.4%
Non-loss rate
28.6%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
52
Halftime Coverage Matches
55
0.65
First Half Goals For Mean
0.71
0.52
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.44
0.90
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.85
0.77
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.91
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
154.3
Rest days
168.3
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
30
Normal Rest History Matches
36
1.33
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.64
21
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.86
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.83
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.08
Portability PPG Std
0.35
0.15
Portability PPG Range
0.75
86.58
Portability Score
59.14
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
52
Clean History Matches
55
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-33.52
PPG-0.10
GF-0.01
GA-0.06
PPG0.22
PPG0.00
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate3.5%
Failed-to-score rate0.9%
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate5.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches-3
Goals Mean-0.01
Goals Std0.30
Scored 1+ rate-0.01
Scored 2+ rate0.5%
Scored 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Goals Mean0.34
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.30
History Matches-3
Conceded Mean-0.06
Conceded Std0.08
Clean-sheet rate3.5%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.07
Conceded 3+ rate2.9%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.06
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.61
History Matches-3
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std0.59
Stability score-0.71
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.08
Eligible Matches-3
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate-0.04
Lead Points Retention-0.05
Trailing Matches6
Non-loss rate-0.13
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.06
First Half Goals Against Mean0.08
Second Half Goals For Mean0.05
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.14
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.27
Portability PPG Range-0.60
Portability Score27.44
Rest days-14.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-6
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.31
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.02
Current Team ELO-33.52
Current Opponent ELO33.52
Current ELO Difference-67.04
Expected score-0.10
History Matches-3
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-2.71
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.09

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Las Rozas

W
Las Rozas4–3Alcobendas Sport24 Oct · home
Pick: Las Rozas 51% · hit
D
Colonia Moscardó1–1Las Rozas18 Oct · away
Pick: Las Rozas 43% · missed
W
Las Rozas3–0RC Alcobendas7 Oct · home
Pick: Las Rozas 70% · hit
L
Trival Valderas2–1Las Rozas4 Oct · away
Pick: Trival Valderas 45% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Torrejón

L
Pozuelo Alarcón1–0Torrejón25 Oct · away
Pick: Torrejón 44% · missed
W
Torrejón4–0Parla Escuela18 Oct · home
Pick: Torrejón 70% · hit
W
Torrejón4–0Unión Adarve4 Oct · home
Pick: Torrejón 52% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Las Rozas and Torrejón meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Las Rozas win 33.6%, draw 24.9%, Torrejón win 41.4%. The pick is Torrejón win. Over 2.5 goals: 57.8%. Both teams to score: 57.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.