ScoreProb
Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 Spain Group 7 - 10 2026

Rayo Vallecano II vs Fuenlabrada

Rayo Vallecano II Home · Elo 1,425
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Fuenlabrada Away · Elo 1,458
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Rayo Vallecano II win
Rayo Vallecano II winPick
50.1%
Draw
22.7%
Fuenlabrada win
27.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.8%
No43.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.556.5%
Under 2.543.5%

How much we know

Rayo Vallecano II history55 matches
Fuenlabrada history51 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 17:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.1%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Rayo Vallecano II are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Fuenlabrada are rated 33 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,458 against 1,425. On rating alone Fuenlabrada would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Rayo Vallecano II score more

    1.31 goals a game over 55 matches for Rayo Vallecano II, against 1.16 over 51 for Fuenlabrada.

  • Fuenlabrada concede fewer

    Rayo Vallecano II concede 1.73 a game, Fuenlabrada 1.39.

  • Rayo Vallecano II games more often go over 2.5 goals

    64% of Rayo Vallecano II matches, against 47% for Fuenlabrada. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 3 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Rayo Vallecano II
Fuenlabrada
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1425.2
ELO
1458.1
55
ELO · Matches
51
1425.2
Current Team ELO
1458.1
1458.1
Current Opponent ELO
1425.2
-32.89
Current ELO Difference
32.89
0.45
Expected score
0.55
55
History Matches
51
-0.07
Residual Mean
-0.04
45.14
Overperformance
46.99
-0.27
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
0.80
0.80
Goals for per game
0.80
2.20
Goals against per game
1.60
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.40
PPG
1.00
0.50
Goals for per game
0.80
2.40
Goals against per game
1.40
10.0%
Win rate
20.0%
0.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.80
0.92
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.17
2.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.36
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.11
0.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.81
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.28
Overall performance9 signals
90
55
Matches
51
1.22
PPG
1.10
34.5%
Win rate
27.5%
18.2%
Draw rate
27.5%
47.3%
Loss rate
45.1%
78.2%
Over 1.5 rate
78.4%
63.6%
Over 2.5 rate
47.1%
36.4%
Over 3.5 rate
19.6%
1.92
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.68
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
26
1.39
PPG
0.92
39.3%
Win rate
26.9%
21.4%
Draw rate
11.5%
39.3%
Loss rate
61.5%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
84.6%
64.3%
Over 2.5 rate
57.7%
42.9%
Over 3.5 rate
30.8%
1.92
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.57
28
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.31
Goals for per game
1.16
60.0%
Scoring rate
62.7%
50.9%
BTTS rate
54.9%
1.46
Goals for per game
1.08
57.1%
Scoring rate
53.8%
50.0%
BTTS rate
53.8%
55
History Matches
51
1.31
Goals Mean
1.16
1.37
Goals Std
1.29
60.0%
Scored 1+ rate
62.7%
36.4%
Scored 2+ rate
25.5%
27.3%
Scored 3+ rate
17.6%
1.46
Venue Goals Mean
1.08
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.73
Goals against per game
1.39
83.6%
Conceding rate
84.3%
1.61
Goals against per game
1.88
82.1%
Conceding rate
96.2%
55
History Matches
51
1.73
Conceded Mean
1.39
1.20
Conceded Std
0.93
56.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
41.2%
21.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.8%
1.61
Venue Conceded Mean
1.88
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
16.4%
Clean-sheet rate
15.7%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
37.3%
17.9%
Clean-sheet rate
3.8%
42.9%
Failed-to-score rate
46.2%
16.4%
Clean-sheet rate
15.7%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
37.3%
17.9%
Clean-sheet rate
3.8%
42.9%
Failed-to-score rate
46.2%
16.4%
Clean-sheet rate
15.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
55
History Matches
51
0.94
Result entropy
0.97
1.92
Goal Difference Std
1.68
6.13
Stability score
2.71
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
55
Eligible Matches
51
16
Lead Matches
8
81.3%
Lead Win Rate
87.5%
0.88
Lead Points Retention
0.92
19
Trailing Matches
16
5.3%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
12.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
55
Halftime Coverage Matches
51
0.69
First Half Goals For Mean
0.45
0.84
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.61
0.62
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.71
0.89
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.78
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
189.3
Rest days
189.3
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
31
Normal Rest History Matches
33
1.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.03
22
Long Rest History Matches
17
1.50
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.12
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
2
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.47
Portability PPG Std
0.01
1.12
Portability PPG Range
0.03
51.63
Portability Score
97.14
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
55
Clean History Matches
51
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-32.89
PPG0.12
GF0.15
GA0.34
PPG0.47
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate0.7%
Failed-to-score rate2.7%
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate14.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches4
Goals Mean0.15
Goals Std0.08
Scored 1+ rate-0.03
Scored 2+ rate10.9%
Scored 3+ rate9.6%
Venue Goals Mean0.39
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.24
History Matches4
Conceded Mean0.34
Conceded Std0.27
Clean-sheet rate0.7%
Conceded 2+ rate15.2%
Conceded 3+ rate10.1%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.28
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.24
History Matches4
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std0.25
Stability score3.42
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.38
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.53
Eligible Matches4
Lead Matches8
Lead Win Rate-0.06
Lead Points Retention-0.04
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate-0.20
Trailing Win Rate-0.13
Halftime Coverage Matches4
First Half Goals For Mean0.24
First Half Goals Against Mean0.23
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.09
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.11
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.45
Portability PPG Range1.09
Portability Score-45.52
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.03
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.38
Current Team ELO-32.89
Current Opponent ELO32.89
Current ELO Difference-65.77
Expected score-0.09
History Matches4
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-1.85
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.26

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Rayo Vallecano II

D
Alcobendas Sport1–1Rayo Vallecano II31 Oct · away
Pick: Rayo Vallecano II 39% · missed
D
Rayo Vallecano II1–1Colonia Moscardó25 Oct · home
Pick: Rayo Vallecano II 51% · missed
L
SS Reyes II4–3Rayo Vallecano II18 Oct · away
Pick: Rayo Vallecano II 40% · missed
L
RC Alcobendas4–2Rayo Vallecano II4 Oct · away
Pick: RC Alcobendas 34% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Fuenlabrada

D
Real Aranjuez0–0Fuenlabrada24 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 38% · hit
L
Fuenlabrada0–1Pozuelo Alarcón17 Oct · home
Pick: Fuenlabrada 45% · missed
W
Fuenlabrada1–0Villanueva Pardillo4 Oct · home
Pick: Fuenlabrada 47% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Rayo Vallecano II and Fuenlabrada meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Rayo Vallecano II win 50.1%, draw 22.7%, Fuenlabrada win 27.2%. The pick is Rayo Vallecano II win. Over 2.5 goals: 56.5%. Both teams to score: 56.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.