ScoreProb
Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 Spain Group 7 - 10 2026

Galapagar vs SS Reyes II

Galapagar Home · Elo 1,500
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
SS Reyes II Away · Elo 1,526
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Galapagar win
Galapagar winPick
46.8%
Draw
28.0%
SS Reyes II win
25.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.3%
No48.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.550.8%
Under 2.549.2%

How much we know

Galapagar history51 matches
SS Reyes II history33 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 17:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (46.8%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Galapagar are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • SS Reyes II are rated 27 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,526 against 1,500. On rating alone SS Reyes II would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • SS Reyes II score more

    1.12 goals a game over 51 matches for Galapagar, against 1.36 over 33 for SS Reyes II.

  • SS Reyes II concede fewer

    Galapagar concede 1.37 a game, SS Reyes II 1.06.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    43% of Galapagar matches, against 42% for SS Reyes II. The model puts this match at 51% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 18 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Galapagar
SS Reyes II
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1499.5
ELO
1526.4
51
ELO · Matches
33
1499.5
Current Team ELO
1526.4
1526.4
Current Opponent ELO
1499.5
-26.88
Current ELO Difference
26.88
0.46
Expected score
0.54
51
History Matches
33
0.00
Residual Mean
0.04
49.90
Overperformance
52.32
-0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.60
2.00
Goals for per game
2.00
1.40
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.40
1.70
Goals for per game
1.50
1.50
Goals against per game
1.10
40.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
1.49
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.20
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
0.92
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.94
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.09
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.36
Overall performance9 signals
90
51
Matches
33
1.25
PPG
1.42
29.4%
Win rate
33.3%
37.3%
Draw rate
42.4%
33.3%
Loss rate
24.2%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
75.8%
43.1%
Over 2.5 rate
42.4%
29.4%
Over 3.5 rate
18.2%
1.87
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.62
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
17
1.40
PPG
1.06
36.0%
Win rate
17.6%
32.0%
Draw rate
52.9%
32.0%
Loss rate
29.4%
72.0%
Over 1.5 rate
76.5%
56.0%
Over 2.5 rate
41.2%
36.0%
Over 3.5 rate
29.4%
1.90
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.06
25
History Matches
17
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.12
Goals for per game
1.36
64.7%
Scoring rate
81.8%
51.0%
BTTS rate
63.6%
1.36
Goals for per game
1.41
76.0%
Scoring rate
76.5%
64.0%
BTTS rate
64.7%
51
History Matches
33
1.12
Goals Mean
1.36
1.11
Goals Std
1.20
64.7%
Scored 1+ rate
81.8%
31.4%
Scored 2+ rate
33.3%
11.8%
Scored 3+ rate
9.1%
1.36
Venue Goals Mean
1.41
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.37
Goals against per game
1.06
70.6%
Conceding rate
69.7%
1.56
Goals against per game
1.24
76.0%
Conceding rate
76.5%
51
History Matches
33
1.37
Conceded Mean
1.06
1.55
Conceded Std
1.04
31.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
24.2%
15.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
6.1%
1.56
Venue Conceded Mean
1.24
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
29.4%
Clean-sheet rate
30.3%
35.3%
Failed-to-score rate
18.2%
24.0%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
24.0%
Failed-to-score rate
23.5%
29.4%
Clean-sheet rate
30.3%
35.3%
Failed-to-score rate
18.2%
24.0%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
24.0%
Failed-to-score rate
23.5%
29.4%
Clean-sheet rate
30.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
51
History Matches
33
1.00
Result entropy
0.98
1.87
Goal Difference Std
1.62
0.42
Stability score
2.29
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
51
Eligible Matches
33
13
Lead Matches
6
69.2%
Lead Win Rate
50.0%
0.79
Lead Points Retention
0.56
13
Trailing Matches
7
38.5%
Non-loss rate
57.1%
15.4%
Trailing Win Rate
28.6%
Goal timing5 signals
50
51
Halftime Coverage Matches
33
0.55
First Half Goals For Mean
0.45
0.53
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.42
0.57
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.91
0.84
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.64
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
182.3
Rest days
82.38
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
28
Normal Rest History Matches
17
1.18
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.88
22
Long Rest History Matches
15
1.41
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.13
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.03
Portability PPG Std
—
0.05
Portability PPG Range
—
94.96
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
51
Clean History Matches
33
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-26.88
PPG-0.17
GF-0.25
GA0.31
PPG0.34
PPG-0.20
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches18
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate17.1%
History Matches8
Clean-sheet rate0.5%
Failed-to-score rate0.5%
History Matches18
Goals Mean-0.25
Goals Std-0.09
Scored 1+ rate-0.17
Scored 2+ rate-0.02
Scored 3+ rate2.7%
Venue Goals Mean-0.05
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.28
History Matches18
Conceded Mean0.31
Conceded Std0.50
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Conceded 2+ rate7.1%
Conceded 3+ rate9.6%
Venue Conceded Mean0.32
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.02
History Matches18
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std0.24
Stability score-1.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.73
Eligible Matches18
Lead Matches7
Lead Win Rate19.2%
Lead Points Retention0.24
Trailing Matches6
Non-loss rate-0.19
Trailing Win Rate-0.13
Halftime Coverage Matches18
First Half Goals For Mean0.09
First Half Goals Against Mean0.11
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.34
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.21
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days99.94
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches11
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.30
Long Rest History Matches7
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.72
Current Team ELO-26.88
Current Opponent ELO26.88
Current ELO Difference-53.77
Expected score-0.08
History Matches18
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-2.42
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.03

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Galapagar

W
Galapagar4–1RC Alcobendas25 Oct · home
Pick: Galapagar 66% · hit
L
Galapagar1–3Cala Pozuelo4 Oct · home
Pick: Galapagar 61% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

SS Reyes II

D
Cala Pozuelo1–1SS Reyes II24 Oct · away
Pick: SS Reyes II 38% · missed
W
SS Reyes II4–3Rayo Vallecano II18 Oct · home
Pick: Rayo Vallecano II 40% · missed
L
SS Reyes II3–5Real Aranjuez4 Oct · home
Pick: SS Reyes II 62% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Galapagar and SS Reyes II meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Galapagar win 46.8%, draw 28.0%, SS Reyes II win 25.2%. The pick is Galapagar win. Over 2.5 goals: 50.8%. Both teams to score: 51.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.