ScoreProb
Ligue 1 France Round 10 2026

Lens vs Marseille

Lens Home · Elo 1,651
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Marseille Away · Elo 1,590
Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Marseille win
Lens win
37.4%
Draw
24.3%
Marseille winPick
38.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes60.5%
No39.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.565.6%
Under 2.534.4%

How much we know

Lens history66 matches
Marseille history70 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 19:45 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.3%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Marseille are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Lens are rated 61 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,651 against 1,590. On rating alone Lens would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.95 goals a game over 66 matches for Lens, against 2.07 over 70 for Marseille.

  • Lens concede fewer

    Lens concede 1.15 a game, Marseille 1.37.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    62% of Lens matches, against 70% for Marseille. The model puts this match at 66% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Lens
Marseille
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1651.1
ELO
1589.8
66
ELO · Matches
70
1651.1
Current Team ELO
1589.8
1589.8
Current Opponent ELO
1651.1
61.25
Current ELO Difference
-61.25
0.59
Expected score
0.41
66
History Matches
70
0.12
Residual Mean
0.07
59.53
Overperformance
55.30
0.14
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
2.40
2.20
Goals for per game
2.60
1.40
Goals against per game
1.00
60.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
2.20
PPG
1.90
2.30
Goals for per game
1.80
1.10
Goals against per game
1.20
70.0%
Win rate
60.0%
2.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
1.68
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.33
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
0.83
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.87
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.94
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.01
Overall performance9 signals
90
66
Matches
70
2.02
PPG
1.73
63.6%
Win rate
52.9%
10.6%
Draw rate
14.3%
25.8%
Loss rate
32.9%
81.8%
Over 1.5 rate
84.3%
62.1%
Over 2.5 rate
70.0%
37.9%
Over 3.5 rate
45.7%
1.96
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.40
Venue performance10 signals
100
38
Matches
33
2.24
PPG
1.21
73.7%
Win rate
36.4%
2.6%
Draw rate
12.1%
23.7%
Loss rate
51.5%
76.3%
Over 1.5 rate
81.8%
60.5%
Over 2.5 rate
63.6%
42.1%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.92
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.76
38
History Matches
33
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.95
Goals for per game
2.07
80.3%
Scoring rate
78.6%
51.5%
BTTS rate
55.7%
2.08
Goals for per game
1.61
81.6%
Scoring rate
66.7%
47.4%
BTTS rate
45.5%
5.00
Goals for per game
4.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
66
History Matches
70
1.95
Goals Mean
2.07
1.46
Goals Std
1.84
80.3%
Scored 1+ rate
78.6%
57.6%
Scored 2+ rate
52.9%
36.4%
Scored 3+ rate
37.1%
2.08
Venue Goals Mean
1.61
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.15
Goals against per game
1.37
69.7%
Conceding rate
77.1%
1.08
Goals against per game
1.61
65.8%
Conceding rate
78.8%
2.00
Goals against per game
0.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
0.0%
66
History Matches
70
1.15
Conceded Mean
1.37
1.03
Conceded Std
1.03
31.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
45.7%
10.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.4%
1.08
Venue Conceded Mean
1.61
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
30.3%
Clean-sheet rate
22.9%
19.7%
Failed-to-score rate
21.4%
34.2%
Clean-sheet rate
21.2%
18.4%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
30.3%
Clean-sheet rate
22.9%
19.7%
Failed-to-score rate
21.4%
34.2%
Clean-sheet rate
21.2%
18.4%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
30.3%
Clean-sheet rate
22.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
66
History Matches
70
0.80
Result entropy
0.89
1.96
Goal Difference Std
2.40
20.36
Stability score
10.73
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
66
Eligible Matches
70
26
Lead Matches
25
92.3%
Lead Win Rate
84.0%
0.94
Lead Points Retention
0.87
16
Trailing Matches
18
25.0%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
12.5%
Trailing Win Rate
11.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
66
Halftime Coverage Matches
70
0.80
First Half Goals For Mean
0.79
0.58
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.53
1.15
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.29
0.58
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.84
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.19
Rest days
79.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
3
2.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.33
37
Normal Rest History Matches
42
1.97
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.71
25
Long Rest History Matches
24
2.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.75
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
3.00
PPG
3.00
100.0%
Win rate
100.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
3.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
4.00
8
Competition Season Count
8
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.48
Portability PPG Std
0.41
1.33
Portability PPG Range
1.38
51.12
Portability Score
54.93
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
66
Clean History Matches
70
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO61.25
PPG0.29
GF-0.12
GA-0.22
PPG0.00
PPG1.02
PPG-0.40
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate7.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate13.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.15
History Matches-4
Goals Mean-0.12
Goals Std-0.38
Scored 1+ rate1.7%
Scored 2+ rate4.7%
Scored 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Goals Mean0.47
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.35
History Matches-4
Conceded Mean-0.22
Conceded Std0.00
Clean-sheet rate7.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.14
Conceded 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Conceded Mean-0.53
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.04
History Matches-4
Result entropy-0.10
Goal Difference Std-0.44
Stability score9.62
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.09
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.07
Eligible Matches-4
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate8.3%
Lead Points Retention0.07
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate-0.08
Trailing Win Rate1.4%
Halftime Coverage Matches-4
First Half Goals For Mean0.02
First Half Goals Against Mean0.05
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.13
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.27
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.07
Portability PPG Range-0.04
Portability Score-3.81
Rest days-0.85
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches-5
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.26
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.25
Current Team ELO61.25
Current Opponent ELO-61.25
Current ELO Difference122.5
Expected score0.17
History Matches-4
Residual Mean0.06
Overperformance4.23
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.07

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Lens

L
Lille1–0Lens30 Oct · away
Pick: Lille 42% · hit
W
Lens2–1Paris FC24 Oct · home
Pick: Lens 67% · hit
L
Club Brugge KV3–0Lens21 Oct · away
Pick: Club Brugge KV 65% · hit
W
Estac Troyes1–3Lens17 Oct · away
Pick: Lens 45% · hit
L
Lens0–2Sporting CP13 Oct · home
Pick: Sporting CP 49% · hit

Marseille

W
Marseille2–0Toulouse1 Nov · home
Pick: Marseille 61% · hit
W
Marseille4–3Le Havre25 Oct · home
Pick: Marseille 66% · hit
L
Sturm Graz1–0Marseille22 Oct · away
Pick: Sturm Graz 54% · hit
W
Angers2–5Marseille18 Oct · away
Pick: Marseille 52% · hit
L
Marseille0–1Olympiakos Piraeus15 Oct · home
Pick: Olympiakos Piraeus 47% · hit

About this match

Lens and Marseille meet in Ligue 1 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 19:45 UTC. The match is played at Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Lens win 37.4%, draw 24.3%, Marseille win 38.3%. The pick is Marseille win. Over 2.5 goals: 65.6%. Both teams to score: 60.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.