ScoreProb
II Liga - East Poland Round 15 2026

Lechia Zielona Góra vs Stal Stalowa Wola

Lechia Zielona Góra Home · Elo 1,593
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Stal Stalowa Wola Away · Elo 1,516
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Lechia Zielona Góra win
Lechia Zielona Góra winPick
49.3%
Draw
23.1%
Stal Stalowa Wola win
27.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes57.7%
No42.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.557.5%
Under 2.542.5%

How much we know

Lechia Zielona Góra history68 matches
Stal Stalowa Wola history68 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 17:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (49.3%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Lechia Zielona Góra are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Lechia Zielona Góra are rated 77 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,593 against 1,516. On rating alone Lechia Zielona Góra would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.

  • Lechia Zielona Góra score more

    1.79 goals a game over 68 matches for Lechia Zielona Góra, against 1.47 over 68 for Stal Stalowa Wola.

  • Lechia Zielona Góra concede fewer

    Lechia Zielona Góra concede 0.99 a game, Stal Stalowa Wola 1.53.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    53% of Lechia Zielona Góra matches, against 53% for Stal Stalowa Wola. The model puts this match at 58% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Lechia Zielona Góra
Stal Stalowa Wola
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1592.8
ELO
1515.8
68
ELO · Matches
68
1592.8
Current Team ELO
1515.8
1515.8
Current Opponent ELO
1592.8
77.00
Current ELO Difference
-77.00
0.61
Expected score
0.39
68
History Matches
68
0.07
Residual Mean
0.01
55.30
Overperformance
50.53
-0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
0.60
2.20
Goals for per game
1.60
1.40
Goals against per game
2.00
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.40
1.60
Goals for per game
1.70
2.00
Goals against per game
1.50
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
1.62
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.00
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.48
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.12
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
2.65
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.78
Overall performance9 signals
90
68
Matches
68
1.72
PPG
1.24
48.5%
Win rate
27.9%
26.5%
Draw rate
39.7%
25.0%
Loss rate
32.4%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
77.9%
52.9%
Over 2.5 rate
52.9%
29.4%
Over 3.5 rate
42.6%
2.24
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.72
Venue performance10 signals
100
35
Matches
36
1.74
PPG
1.06
45.7%
Win rate
22.2%
37.1%
Draw rate
38.9%
17.1%
Loss rate
38.9%
77.1%
Over 1.5 rate
86.1%
48.6%
Over 2.5 rate
52.8%
37.1%
Over 3.5 rate
47.2%
2.05
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.65
35
History Matches
36
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.79
Goals for per game
1.47
75.0%
Scoring rate
73.5%
50.0%
BTTS rate
60.3%
2.03
Goals for per game
1.39
80.0%
Scoring rate
77.8%
54.3%
BTTS rate
69.4%
2.20
Goals for per game
1.60
100.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
40.0%
68
History Matches
68
1.79
Goals Mean
1.47
1.75
Goals Std
1.29
75.0%
Scored 1+ rate
73.5%
42.6%
Scored 2+ rate
44.1%
26.5%
Scored 3+ rate
19.1%
2.03
Venue Goals Mean
1.39
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.99
Goals against per game
1.53
63.2%
Conceding rate
76.5%
0.86
Goals against per game
1.75
62.9%
Conceding rate
83.3%
1.40
Goals against per game
1.40
100.0%
Conceding rate
60.0%
68
History Matches
68
0.99
Conceded Mean
1.53
1.06
Conceded Std
1.25
23.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
47.1%
7.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.6%
0.86
Venue Conceded Mean
1.75
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
36.8%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
26.5%
37.1%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
36.8%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
26.5%
37.1%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
36.8%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
68
History Matches
68
0.96
Result entropy
0.99
2.24
Goal Difference Std
1.72
4.49
Stability score
0.96
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
67
Eligible Matches
68
25
Lead Matches
14
88.0%
Lead Win Rate
71.4%
0.92
Lead Points Retention
0.81
13
Trailing Matches
17
30.8%
Non-loss rate
29.4%
7.7%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
67
Halftime Coverage Matches
68
0.75
First Half Goals For Mean
0.62
0.39
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.69
1.06
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.85
0.60
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.84
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.19
Rest days
77.94
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
3
1.80
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.33
37
Normal Rest History Matches
34
1.81
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.09
25
Long Rest History Matches
30
1.52
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.33
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
60.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
20.0%
Loss rate
60.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
2.14
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.40
5
Current Competition Matches
5
1.20
Current Competition PPG
1.20
0.80
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.20
5
Competition Season Count
7
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.38
Portability PPG Std
0.39
1.12
Portability PPG Range
1.20
56.56
Portability Score
56.37
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
68
Clean History Matches
68
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO77.00
PPG0.49
GF0.32
GA-0.54
PPG0.00
PPG0.69
PPG0.60
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate13.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate20.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches0
Goals Mean0.32
Goals Std0.46
Scored 1+ rate1.5%
Scored 2+ rate-0.01
Scored 3+ rate7.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.64
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.62
History Matches0
Conceded Mean-0.54
Conceded Std-0.19
Clean-sheet rate13.2%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.24
Conceded 3+ rate-0.13
Venue Conceded Mean-0.89
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.37
History Matches0
Result entropy-0.04
Goal Difference Std0.52
Stability score3.54
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.88
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches11
Lead Win Rate16.6%
Lead Points Retention0.11
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate1.4%
Trailing Win Rate7.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean0.13
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.30
Second Half Goals For Mean0.21
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.24
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.60
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.00
Portability PPG Range-0.08
Portability Score0.19
Rest days-1.75
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match0.47
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.72
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.19
Current Team ELO77.00
Current Opponent ELO-77.00
Current ELO Difference154.0
Expected score0.22
History Matches0
Residual Mean0.06
Overperformance4.77
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.18

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Lechia Zielona Góra

W
Tychy 711–2Lechia Zielona Góra31 Oct · away
Pick: Tychy 71 46% · missed
L
Lechia Zielona Góra0–6Górnik Łęczna24 Oct · home
Pick: Lechia Zielona Góra 53% · missed
D
Podhale Nowy Targ0–0Lechia Zielona Góra18 Oct · away
Pick: Lechia Zielona Góra 41% · missed
W
Avia Świdnik1–3Lechia Zielona Góra29 Aug · away
Pick: Avia Świdnik 44% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Stal Stalowa Wola

L
Stal Stalowa Wola1–2Sokół Kleczew31 Oct · home
Pick: Stal Stalowa Wola 54% · missed
W
Stal Stalowa Wola1–0Sandecja Nowy Sącz24 Oct · home
Pick: Sandecja Nowy Sącz 38% · missed
W
Górnik Łęczna1–2Stal Stalowa Wola17 Oct · away
Pick: Górnik Łęczna 41% · missed
L
Znicz Pruszków4–2Stal Stalowa Wola4 Oct · away
Pick: Znicz Pruszków 46% · hit
L
Hutnik Kraków2–1Stal Stalowa Wola29 Aug · away
Pick: Hutnik Kraków 58% · hit

About this match

Lechia Zielona Góra and Stal Stalowa Wola meet in II Liga - East on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Lechia Zielona Góra win 49.3%, draw 23.1%, Stal Stalowa Wola win 27.6%. The pick is Lechia Zielona Góra win. Over 2.5 goals: 57.5%. Both teams to score: 57.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.