ScoreProb
II Liga - East Poland Round 15 2026

Znicz Pruszków vs Podhale Nowy Targ

Znicz Pruszków Home · Elo 1,457
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Podhale Nowy Targ Away · Elo 1,550
Stadion MZOS Znicz Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Znicz Pruszków win
Znicz Pruszków winPick
51.6%
Draw
20.0%
Podhale Nowy Targ win
28.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.0%
No44.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.557.1%
Under 2.542.9%

How much we know

Znicz Pruszków history67 matches
Podhale Nowy Targ history67 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 11:15 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (51.6%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Znicz Pruszków are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Podhale Nowy Targ are rated 93 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,550 against 1,457. On rating alone Podhale Nowy Targ would be expected to take 63% of the points on offer.

  • Podhale Nowy Targ score more

    1.28 goals a game over 67 matches for Znicz Pruszków, against 1.66 over 67 for Podhale Nowy Targ.

  • Podhale Nowy Targ concede fewer

    Znicz Pruszków concede 1.70 a game, Podhale Nowy Targ 1.16.

  • Znicz Pruszków games more often go over 2.5 goals

    60% of Znicz Pruszków matches, against 51% for Podhale Nowy Targ. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Znicz Pruszków
Podhale Nowy Targ
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1456.9
ELO
1549.8
67
ELO · Matches
67
1456.9
Current Team ELO
1549.8
1549.8
Current Opponent ELO
1456.9
-92.84
Current ELO Difference
92.84
0.37
Expected score
0.63
67
History Matches
67
-0.02
Residual Mean
0.03
48.12
Overperformance
52.46
0.33
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.00
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.00
2.00
Goals for per game
1.40
1.00
Goals against per game
2.20
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
2.00
PPG
1.70
2.00
Goals for per game
2.20
1.30
Goals against per game
1.70
60.0%
Win rate
50.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.20
1.18
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.54
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
0.64
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.73
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.19
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.38
Overall performance9 signals
90
67
Matches
67
1.15
PPG
1.63
31.3%
Win rate
43.3%
20.9%
Draw rate
32.8%
47.8%
Loss rate
23.9%
76.1%
Over 1.5 rate
77.6%
59.7%
Over 2.5 rate
50.7%
37.3%
Over 3.5 rate
37.3%
1.89
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.82
Venue performance10 signals
100
36
Matches
35
1.11
PPG
1.23
30.6%
Win rate
28.6%
19.4%
Draw rate
37.1%
50.0%
Loss rate
34.3%
77.8%
Over 1.5 rate
74.3%
63.9%
Over 2.5 rate
51.4%
38.9%
Over 3.5 rate
34.3%
1.88
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.87
36
History Matches
35
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.28
Goals for per game
1.66
65.7%
Scoring rate
80.6%
55.2%
BTTS rate
52.2%
1.33
Goals for per game
1.40
66.7%
Scoring rate
65.7%
58.3%
BTTS rate
51.4%
1.60
Goals for per game
1.60
80.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
60.0%
BTTS rate
80.0%
67
History Matches
67
1.28
Goals Mean
1.66
1.22
Goals Std
1.28
65.7%
Scored 1+ rate
80.6%
41.8%
Scored 2+ rate
47.8%
13.4%
Scored 3+ rate
25.4%
1.33
Venue Goals Mean
1.40
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.70
Goals against per game
1.16
82.1%
Conceding rate
65.7%
1.83
Goals against per game
1.34
83.3%
Conceding rate
74.3%
0.80
Goals against per game
2.40
80.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
67
History Matches
67
1.70
Conceded Mean
1.16
1.38
Conceded Std
1.18
47.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
32.8%
23.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.4%
1.83
Venue Conceded Mean
1.34
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
17.9%
Clean-sheet rate
34.3%
34.3%
Failed-to-score rate
19.4%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
25.7%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
34.3%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
17.9%
Clean-sheet rate
34.3%
34.3%
Failed-to-score rate
19.4%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
25.7%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
34.3%
17.9%
Clean-sheet rate
34.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
67
History Matches
67
0.95
Result entropy
0.97
1.89
Goal Difference Std
1.82
5.00
Stability score
2.59
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
66
Eligible Matches
66
18
Lead Matches
31
83.3%
Lead Win Rate
71.0%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.81
24
Trailing Matches
14
16.7%
Non-loss rate
21.4%
8.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
66
Halftime Coverage Matches
66
0.62
First Half Goals For Mean
0.80
0.73
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.48
0.67
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.88
0.97
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.86
Rest days
77.05
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
3
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
36
Normal Rest History Matches
32
1.11
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.69
29
Long Rest History Matches
31
1.21
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.48
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.00
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
40.0%
20.0%
Loss rate
40.0%
60.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
60.0%
1.33
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.94
5
Current Competition Matches
5
2.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
0.80
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.80
7
Competition Season Count
7
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.67
Portability PPG Std
0.44
1.75
Portability PPG Range
1.33
42.68
Portability Score
52.98
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
67
Clean History Matches
67
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-92.84
PPG-0.48
GF-0.37
GA0.54
PPG1.00
PPG-0.12
PPG1.00
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.16
Failed-to-score rate14.9%
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches0
Goals Mean-0.37
Goals Std-0.06
Scored 1+ rate-0.15
Scored 2+ rate-0.06
Scored 3+ rate-0.12
Venue Goals Mean-0.07
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.35
History Matches0
Conceded Mean0.54
Conceded Std0.20
Clean-sheet rate-0.16
Conceded 2+ rate14.9%
Conceded 3+ rate13.4%
Venue Conceded Mean0.49
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-1.09
History Matches0
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.06
Stability score2.40
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.19
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches-13
Lead Win Rate12.4%
Lead Points Retention0.06
Trailing Matches10
Non-loss rate-0.05
Trailing Win Rate8.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean-0.18
First Half Goals Against Mean0.24
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.21
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.30
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.60
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.23
Portability PPG Range0.42
Portability Score-10.31
Rest days-0.19
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.00
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.58
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.28
Current Team ELO-92.84
Current Opponent ELO92.84
Current ELO Difference-185.7
Expected score-0.26
History Matches0
Residual Mean-0.06
Overperformance-4.34
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.33

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Znicz Pruszków

L
Górnik Łęczna3–0Znicz Pruszków31 Oct · away
Pick: Górnik Łęczna 38% · hit
L
Znicz Pruszków0–1Ruch Chorzów28 Oct · home
Pick: Ruch Chorzów 41% · hit
W
Avia Świdnik0–2Znicz Pruszków25 Oct · away
Pick: Znicz Pruszków 41% · hit
W
Znicz Pruszków1–0Rekord Bielsko-Biała18 Oct · home
Pick: Znicz Pruszków 54% · hit
W
Znicz Pruszków4–2Stal Stalowa Wola4 Oct · home
Pick: Znicz Pruszków 46% · hit

Podhale Nowy Targ

D
Podhale Nowy Targ2–2Świt Skolwin31 Oct · home
Pick: Podhale Nowy Targ 56% · missed
L
Sokół Kleczew2–1Podhale Nowy Targ28 Oct · away
Pick: Podhale Nowy Targ 45% · missed
D
Tychy 710–0Podhale Nowy Targ25 Oct · away
Pick: Tychy 71 57% · missed
D
Podhale Nowy Targ0–0Lechia Zielona Góra18 Oct · home
Pick: Lechia Zielona Góra 41% · missed
W
Podhale Nowy Targ3–1Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki1 Sep · home
Pick: Podhale Nowy Targ 40% · hit

About this match

Znicz Pruszków and Podhale Nowy Targ meet in II Liga - East on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 11:15 UTC. The match is played at Stadion MZOS Znicz. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Znicz Pruszków win 51.6%, draw 20.0%, Podhale Nowy Targ win 28.4%. The pick is Znicz Pruszków win. Over 2.5 goals: 57.1%. Both teams to score: 56.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.