ScoreProb
Serie D - Girone D Italy Group D - 11 2026

Lentigione vs Arconatese

Lentigione Home · Elo 1,613
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Arconatese Away · Elo 1,477
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Lentigione win
Lentigione winPick
71.3%
Draw
16.6%
Arconatese win
12.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes46.8%
No53.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.554.9%
Under 2.545.1%

How much we know

Lentigione history52 matches
Arconatese history14 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (71.3%). Picks in that band won 76.2% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 583 matches.

Why Lentigione are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Lentigione are rated 136 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,613 against 1,477. On rating alone Lentigione would be expected to take 69% of the points on offer.

  • Lentigione score more

    1.52 goals a game over 52 matches for Lentigione, against 1.00 over 14 for Arconatese.

  • Lentigione concede fewer

    Lentigione concede 0.81 a game, Arconatese 1.57.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    46% of Lentigione matches, against 50% for Arconatese. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 18 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Lentigione
Arconatese
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1612.7
ELO
1476.9
52
ELO · Matches
14
1612.7
Current Team ELO
1476.9
1476.9
Current Opponent ELO
1612.7
135.8
Current ELO Difference
-135.8
0.69
Expected score
0.31
52
History Matches
14
0.11
Residual Mean
-0.10
58.13
Overperformance
46.08
-0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.14
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.20
1.60
Goals for per game
1.40
1.80
Goals against per game
2.60
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
0.90
1.60
Goals for per game
1.20
1.30
Goals against per game
2.00
50.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
0.92
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.25
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
0.64
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.18
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.66
Overall performance9 signals
90
52
Matches
14
1.96
PPG
1.00
57.7%
Win rate
21.4%
23.1%
Draw rate
35.7%
19.2%
Loss rate
42.9%
65.4%
Over 1.5 rate
64.3%
46.2%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
21.2%
Over 3.5 rate
28.6%
1.45
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
8
1.71
PPG
0.75
46.4%
Win rate
12.5%
32.1%
Draw rate
37.5%
21.4%
Loss rate
50.0%
60.7%
Over 1.5 rate
87.5%
39.3%
Over 2.5 rate
62.5%
21.4%
Over 3.5 rate
37.5%
1.49
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.54
28
History Matches
8
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.52
Goals for per game
1.00
86.5%
Scoring rate
57.1%
48.1%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.39
Goals for per game
1.00
78.6%
Scoring rate
75.0%
39.3%
BTTS rate
62.5%
52
History Matches
14
1.52
Goals Mean
1.00
1.08
Goals Std
1.13
86.5%
Scored 1+ rate
57.1%
40.4%
Scored 2+ rate
28.6%
17.3%
Scored 3+ rate
7.1%
1.39
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.81
Goals against per game
1.57
55.8%
Conceding rate
78.6%
0.75
Goals against per game
2.13
50.0%
Conceding rate
87.5%
52
History Matches
14
0.81
Conceded Mean
1.57
0.88
Conceded Std
1.24
19.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
42.9%
5.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
28.6%
0.75
Venue Conceded Mean
2.13
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
44.2%
Clean-sheet rate
21.4%
13.5%
Failed-to-score rate
42.9%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
21.4%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
44.2%
Clean-sheet rate
21.4%
13.5%
Failed-to-score rate
42.9%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
21.4%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
44.2%
Clean-sheet rate
21.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
52
History Matches
14
0.89
Result entropy
0.97
1.45
Goal Difference Std
1.50
11.45
Stability score
3.43
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
52
Eligible Matches
14
25
Lead Matches
4
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
25.0%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.42
5
Trailing Matches
4
60.0%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
20.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
52
Halftime Coverage Matches
14
0.79
First Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.33
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
0.73
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.48
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
175.0
Rest days
553.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
39
Normal Rest History Matches
11
1.97
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.91
11
Long Rest History Matches
2
2.09
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.50
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
1
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.13
Portability PPG Std
—
0.25
Portability PPG Range
—
79.75
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
52
Clean History Matches
14
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO135.8
PPG0.96
GF0.52
GA-0.76
PPG0.96
PPG0.20
PPG0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches38
Clean-sheet rate22.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.29
History Matches20
Clean-sheet rate37.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches38
Goals Mean0.52
Goals Std-0.05
Scored 1+ rate29.4%
Scored 2+ rate11.8%
Scored 3+ rate10.2%
Venue Goals Mean0.39
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.33
History Matches38
Conceded Mean-0.76
Conceded Std-0.36
Clean-sheet rate22.8%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.24
Conceded 3+ rate-0.23
Venue Conceded Mean-1.38
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.54
History Matches38
Result entropy-0.08
Goal Difference Std-0.05
Stability score8.03
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.56
Eligible Matches38
Lead Matches21
Lead Win Rate55.0%
Lead Points Retention0.45
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate60.0%
Trailing Win Rate20.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches38
First Half Goals For Mean0.29
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.24
Second Half Goals For Mean0.23
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.52
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days-378.0
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches28
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.07
Long Rest History Matches9
Long Rest Points Per Match0.59
Current Team ELO135.8
Current Opponent ELO-135.8
Current ELO Difference271.6
Expected score0.37
History Matches38
Residual Mean0.21
Overperformance12.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.12

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Lentigione

W
Sant'Angelo0–2Lentigione1 Nov · away
Pick: Lentigione 44% · hit
D
Lentigione1–1Crema25 Oct · home
Pick: Lentigione 55% · missed
L
Lentigione1–3Piacenza7 Oct · home
Pick: Lentigione 46% · missed
W
Oltrepò1–2Lentigione4 Oct · away
Pick: Lentigione 41% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Arconatese

L
Arconatese3–4Pontedera1 Nov · home
Pick: Draw 42% · missed
W
Coriano1–2Arconatese25 Oct · away
Pick: Coriano 51% · missed
L
Arconatese1–5Città di Varese18 Oct · home
Pick: Città di Varese 46% · hit
D
Arconatese1–1Pro Sesto4 Oct · home
Pick: Pro Sesto 48% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Lentigione and Arconatese meet in Serie D - Girone D on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Lentigione win 71.3%, draw 16.6%, Arconatese win 12.1%. The pick is Lentigione win. Over 2.5 goals: 54.9%. Both teams to score: 46.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.