ScoreProb
Serie D - Girone D Italy Group D - 11 2026

Oltrepò vs Crema

Oltrepò Home · Elo 1,538
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Crema Away · Elo 1,461
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Oltrepò win
Oltrepò winPick
36.0%
Draw
30.3%
Crema win
33.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.7%
No49.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.547.2%
Under 2.552.8%

How much we know

Oltrepò history47 matches
Crema history49 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (36.0%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Oltrepò are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Oltrepò are rated 77 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,538 against 1,461. On rating alone Oltrepò would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.

  • Crema score more

    1.06 goals a game over 47 matches for Oltrepò, against 1.18 over 49 for Crema.

  • Oltrepò concede fewer

    Oltrepò concede 1.06 a game, Crema 1.45.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    38% of Oltrepò matches, against 45% for Crema. The model puts this match at 47% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 11 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Oltrepò
Crema
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1537.7
ELO
1460.8
47
ELO · Matches
49
1537.7
Current Team ELO
1460.8
1460.8
Current Opponent ELO
1537.7
76.83
Current ELO Difference
-76.83
0.61
Expected score
0.39
47
History Matches
49
0.04
Residual Mean
-0.04
52.67
Overperformance
47.42
0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.11
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
0.80
1.40
Goals for per game
0.80
1.20
Goals against per game
1.40
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
0.70
1.60
Goals for per game
0.60
1.20
Goals against per game
1.30
60.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.60
1.36
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.80
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.08
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.42
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.01
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.27
Overall performance9 signals
90
47
Matches
49
1.51
PPG
1.12
42.6%
Win rate
26.5%
23.4%
Draw rate
32.7%
34.0%
Loss rate
40.8%
59.6%
Over 1.5 rate
75.5%
38.3%
Over 2.5 rate
44.9%
14.9%
Over 3.5 rate
28.6%
1.46
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.64
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
24
1.26
PPG
1.17
34.8%
Win rate
29.2%
21.7%
Draw rate
29.2%
43.5%
Loss rate
41.7%
52.2%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
26.1%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
4.3%
Over 3.5 rate
29.2%
1.41
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.52
23
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.06
Goals for per game
1.18
70.2%
Scoring rate
73.5%
42.6%
BTTS rate
51.0%
0.83
Goals for per game
1.17
56.5%
Scoring rate
79.2%
30.4%
BTTS rate
50.0%
47
History Matches
49
1.06
Goals Mean
1.18
0.95
Goals Std
1.06
70.2%
Scored 1+ rate
73.5%
25.5%
Scored 2+ rate
34.7%
8.5%
Scored 3+ rate
4.1%
0.83
Venue Goals Mean
1.17
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.06
Goals against per game
1.45
63.8%
Conceding rate
69.4%
0.91
Goals against per game
1.54
65.2%
Conceding rate
66.7%
47
History Matches
49
1.06
Conceded Mean
1.45
1.06
Conceded Std
1.26
27.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
49.0%
12.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
18.4%
0.91
Venue Conceded Mean
1.54
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
36.2%
Clean-sheet rate
30.6%
29.8%
Failed-to-score rate
26.5%
34.8%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
43.5%
Failed-to-score rate
20.8%
36.2%
Clean-sheet rate
30.6%
29.8%
Failed-to-score rate
26.5%
34.8%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
43.5%
Failed-to-score rate
20.8%
36.2%
Clean-sheet rate
30.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
47
History Matches
49
0.97
Result entropy
0.99
1.46
Goal Difference Std
1.64
2.58
Stability score
1.40
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
47
Eligible Matches
48
11
Lead Matches
13
81.8%
Lead Win Rate
76.9%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.82
15
Trailing Matches
19
40.0%
Non-loss rate
21.1%
20.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
47
Halftime Coverage Matches
48
0.40
First Half Goals For Mean
0.56
0.55
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
0.66
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.60
0.51
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.73
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
189.0
Rest days
182.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
36
Normal Rest History Matches
37
1.53
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.32
9
Long Rest History Matches
10
1.67
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.60
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.09
Portability PPG Std
0.09
0.17
Portability PPG Range
0.17
85.16
Portability Score
85.37
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
47
Clean History Matches
49
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO76.83
PPG0.39
GF-0.12
GA-0.39
PPG0.09
PPG1.20
PPG1.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate5.6%
Failed-to-score rate3.3%
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate1.4%
Failed-to-score rate22.6%
History Matches-2
Goals Mean-0.12
Goals Std-0.11
Scored 1+ rate-0.03
Scored 2+ rate-0.09
Scored 3+ rate4.4%
Venue Goals Mean-0.34
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.56
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean-0.39
Conceded Std-0.20
Clean-sheet rate5.6%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.21
Conceded 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Conceded Mean-0.63
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.34
History Matches-2
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.18
Stability score1.18
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.74
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate4.9%
Lead Points Retention0.03
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate18.9%
Trailing Win Rate20.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.16
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.16
Second Half Goals For Mean0.06
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.22
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.00
Portability PPG Range0.00
Portability Score-0.20
Rest days7.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match1.00
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.20
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match1.07
Current Team ELO76.83
Current Opponent ELO-76.83
Current ELO Difference153.7
Expected score0.22
History Matches-2
Residual Mean0.07
Overperformance5.25
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.24

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Oltrepò

L
Solbiatese4–0Oltrepò1 Nov · away
Pick: Oltrepò 35% · missed
D
Pontedera1–1Oltrepò25 Oct · away
Pick: Pontedera 47% · missed
D
Oltrepò0–0Cittadella Vis Modena18 Oct · home
Pick: Draw 35% · hit
L
Oltrepò1–2Lentigione4 Oct · home
Pick: Lentigione 41% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Crema

W
Crema2–1Cittadella Vis Modena1 Nov · home
Pick: Crema 36% · hit
D
Lentigione1–1Crema25 Oct · away
Pick: Lentigione 55% · missed
W
Crema4–1Pontedera18 Oct · home
Pick: Pontedera 37% · missed
W
Crema3–2Città di Varese4 Oct · home
Pick: Città di Varese 40% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Oltrepò and Crema meet in Serie D - Girone D on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Oltrepò win 36.0%, draw 30.3%, Crema win 33.8%. The pick is Oltrepò win. Over 2.5 goals: 47.2%. Both teams to score: 50.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.