ScoreProb
Liga de Expansión MX Mexico Quarter-finals 2026

Leones Negros UDG vs Durango

Leones Negros UDG Home · Elo 1,496
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Durango Away · Elo 1,613
Estadio Jalisco, Guadalajara Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 3 Nov, 07:46 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Leones Negros UDG win
Leones Negros UDG winPick
53.3%
Draw
21.4%
Durango win
25.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.1%
No46.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.554.3%
Under 2.545.7%

How much we know

Leones Negros UDG history54 matches
Durango history41 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 4 d 13 h ahead
    3 Nov · 07:46 UTC
  2. Re-published 3 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 01:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 21:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (53.3%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Leones Negros UDG are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Durango are rated 117 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,613 against 1,496. On rating alone Durango would be expected to take 66% of the points on offer.

  • Durango score more

    1.43 goals a game over 54 matches for Leones Negros UDG, against 1.95 over 41 for Durango.

  • Durango concede fewer

    Leones Negros UDG concede 1.44 a game, Durango 0.80.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    56% of Leones Negros UDG matches, against 54% for Durango. The model puts this match at 54% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Leones Negros UDG
Durango
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1496.4
ELO
1613.2
54
ELO · Matches
41
1496.4
Current Team ELO
1613.2
1613.2
Current Opponent ELO
1496.4
-116.7
Current ELO Difference
116.7
0.34
Expected score
0.66
54
History Matches
41
0.00
Residual Mean
0.14
49.98
Overperformance
59.44
0.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.14
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
1.20
2.60
Goals for per game
0.60
1.20
Goals against per game
1.40
80.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.30
1.90
Goals for per game
0.80
1.40
Goals against per game
1.10
50.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.80
1.14
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.75
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.11
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.04
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.91
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.27
Overall performance9 signals
90
54
Matches
41
1.39
PPG
2.10
40.7%
Win rate
61.0%
16.7%
Draw rate
26.8%
42.6%
Loss rate
12.2%
77.8%
Over 1.5 rate
73.2%
55.6%
Over 2.5 rate
53.7%
31.5%
Over 3.5 rate
31.7%
1.75
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.84
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
19
1.79
PPG
2.21
53.6%
Win rate
63.2%
17.9%
Draw rate
31.6%
28.6%
Loss rate
5.3%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
63.2%
57.1%
Over 2.5 rate
42.1%
35.7%
Over 3.5 rate
26.3%
1.70
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.72
28
History Matches
19
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.43
Goals for per game
1.95
77.8%
Scoring rate
78.0%
59.3%
BTTS rate
48.8%
1.71
Goals for per game
1.89
85.7%
Scoring rate
73.7%
57.1%
BTTS rate
36.8%
2.60
Goals for per game
0.60
100.0%
Scoring rate
60.0%
60.0%
BTTS rate
20.0%
54
History Matches
41
1.43
Goals Mean
1.95
1.23
Goals Std
1.65
77.8%
Scored 1+ rate
78.0%
37.0%
Scored 2+ rate
56.1%
16.7%
Scored 3+ rate
29.3%
1.71
Venue Goals Mean
1.89
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.44
Goals against per game
0.80
75.9%
Conceding rate
56.1%
1.14
Goals against per game
0.58
64.3%
Conceding rate
42.1%
1.20
Goals against per game
1.40
60.0%
Conceding rate
60.0%
54
History Matches
41
1.44
Conceded Mean
0.80
1.18
Conceded Std
0.86
44.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
19.5%
16.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
4.9%
1.14
Venue Conceded Mean
0.58
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
24.1%
Clean-sheet rate
43.9%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
22.0%
35.7%
Clean-sheet rate
57.9%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
26.3%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
24.1%
Clean-sheet rate
43.9%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
22.0%
35.7%
Clean-sheet rate
57.9%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
26.3%
24.1%
Clean-sheet rate
43.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
54
History Matches
41
0.94
Result entropy
0.83
1.75
Goal Difference Std
1.84
6.43
Stability score
17.06
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
54
Eligible Matches
41
17
Lead Matches
16
76.5%
Lead Win Rate
81.3%
0.82
Lead Points Retention
0.85
18
Trailing Matches
6
22.2%
Non-loss rate
66.7%
11.1%
Trailing Win Rate
16.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
54
Halftime Coverage Matches
41
0.67
First Half Goals For Mean
0.85
0.67
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.41
0.76
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.10
0.78
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.39
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.83
Rest days
76.83
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
24
Normal Rest History Matches
18
1.13
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.67
27
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.63
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.41
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
1.20
80.0%
Win rate
40.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
20.0%
Loss rate
60.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
60.0%
80.0%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
60.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.96
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.60
5
Current Competition Matches
5
2.40
Current Competition PPG
1.20
1.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.80
4
Competition Season Count
3
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.53
Portability PPG Std
0.47
1.29
Portability PPG Range
1.11
48.41
Portability Score
51.71
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
54
Clean History Matches
41
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-116.7
PPG-0.71
GF-0.53
GA0.64
PPG1.20
PPG-0.42
PPG1.20
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches13
Clean-sheet rate-0.20
Failed-to-score rate0.3%
History Matches9
Clean-sheet rate-0.22
Failed-to-score rate-0.12
History Matches13
Goals Mean-0.53
Goals Std-0.43
Scored 1+ rate0.00
Scored 2+ rate-0.19
Scored 3+ rate-0.13
Venue Goals Mean-0.18
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.39
History Matches13
Conceded Mean0.64
Conceded Std0.32
Clean-sheet rate-0.20
Conceded 2+ rate24.9%
Conceded 3+ rate11.8%
Venue Conceded Mean0.56
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.07
History Matches13
Result entropy0.11
Goal Difference Std-0.09
Stability score-10.63
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.64
Eligible Matches13
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate-0.05
Lead Points Retention-0.03
Trailing Matches12
Non-loss rate-0.44
Trailing Win Rate-0.06
Halftime Coverage Matches13
First Half Goals For Mean-0.19
First Half Goals Against Mean0.25
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.34
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.39
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.20
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.07
Portability PPG Range0.19
Portability Score-3.30
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest History Matches6
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.54
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.78
Current Team ELO-116.7
Current Opponent ELO116.7
Current ELO Difference-233.4
Expected score-0.32
History Matches13
Residual Mean-0.14
Overperformance-9.45
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.25

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Leones Negros UDG

W
Leones Negros UDG3–1Tepatitlán1 Nov · home
Pick: Leones Negros UDG 59% · hit
W
Mineros de Zacatecas0–2Leones Negros UDG25 Oct · away
Pick: Leones Negros UDG 38% · hit
L
Leones Negros UDG1–2Alebrijes de Oaxaca18 Oct · home
Pick: Leones Negros UDG 66% · missed
W
Leones Negros UDG6–3Dorados4 Oct · home
Pick: Leones Negros UDG 53% · hit
D
Leones Negros UDG1–1Piratas30 Aug · home
Pick: Leones Negros UDG 62% · missed

Durango

W
Durango3–1Monarcas1 Nov · home
Pick: Monarcas 44% · missed
L
Venados FC3–2Durango24 Oct · away
Pick: Venados FC 46% · hit
W
Durango5–0Tapatío18 Oct · home
Pick: Tapatío 39% · missed
W
Durango4–2Mineros de Zacatecas4 Oct · home
Pick: Mineros de Zacatecas 44% · missed
D
Correcaminos Uat0–0Durango29 Aug · away
Pick: Correcaminos Uat 46% · missed

About this match

Leones Negros UDG and Durango meet in Liga de Expansión MX on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 21:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Jalisco, Guadalajara. ScoreProb published its prediction on 3 Nov, 07:46 UTC: Leones Negros UDG win 53.3%, draw 21.4%, Durango win 25.4%. The pick is Leones Negros UDG win. Over 2.5 goals: 54.3%. Both teams to score: 53.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.