ScoreProb
Liga de Expansión MX Mexico Quarter-finals 2026

Monarcas vs Venados FC

Monarcas Home · Elo 1,537
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Venados FC Away · Elo 1,499
Estadio Morelos, Morelia Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 3 Nov, 07:46 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Monarcas win
Monarcas winPick
48.1%
Draw
27.7%
Venados FC win
24.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.2%
No43.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.555.0%
Under 2.545.0%

How much we know

Monarcas history49 matches
Venados FC history43 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 4 d 13 h ahead
    3 Nov · 07:46 UTC
  2. Re-published 3 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 01:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 21:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (48.1%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Monarcas are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Monarcas are rated 39 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,537 against 1,499. On rating alone Monarcas would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • Venados FC score more

    1.35 goals a game over 49 matches for Monarcas, against 1.74 over 43 for Venados FC.

  • Monarcas concede fewer

    Monarcas concede 1.27 a game, Venados FC 1.67.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    51% of Monarcas matches, against 58% for Venados FC. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 21 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Monarcas
Venados FC
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1537.4
ELO
1498.7
49
ELO · Matches
43
1537.4
Current Team ELO
1498.7
1498.7
Current Opponent ELO
1537.4
38.63
Current ELO Difference
-38.63
0.56
Expected score
0.44
49
History Matches
43
0.04
Residual Mean
0.00
52.54
Overperformance
50.29
-0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.00
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.60
2.20
Goals for per game
2.00
1.60
Goals against per game
2.00
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.40
1.60
Goals for per game
1.60
1.50
Goals against per game
1.70
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.56
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.36
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
1.12
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.27
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.81
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.12
Overall performance9 signals
90
49
Matches
43
1.53
PPG
1.42
42.9%
Win rate
39.5%
24.5%
Draw rate
23.3%
32.7%
Loss rate
37.2%
73.5%
Over 1.5 rate
83.7%
51.0%
Over 2.5 rate
58.1%
24.5%
Over 3.5 rate
39.5%
1.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.81
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
20
2.13
PPG
0.50
62.5%
Win rate
10.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
12.5%
Loss rate
70.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
45.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
30.0%
1.36
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.51
24
History Matches
20
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.35
Goals for per game
1.74
69.4%
Scoring rate
76.7%
46.9%
BTTS rate
65.1%
1.67
Goals for per game
0.90
70.8%
Scoring rate
55.0%
41.7%
BTTS rate
55.0%
2.20
Goals for per game
2.00
80.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
80.0%
BTTS rate
75.0%
49
History Matches
43
1.35
Goals Mean
1.74
1.19
Goals Std
1.51
69.4%
Scored 1+ rate
76.7%
40.8%
Scored 2+ rate
48.8%
20.4%
Scored 3+ rate
25.6%
1.67
Venue Goals Mean
0.90
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.27
Goals against per game
1.67
67.3%
Conceding rate
88.4%
0.79
Goals against per game
2.00
50.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
1.60
Goals against per game
2.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
49
History Matches
43
1.27
Conceded Mean
1.67
1.26
Conceded Std
1.18
34.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
44.2%
16.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
25.6%
0.79
Venue Conceded Mean
2.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
32.7%
Clean-sheet rate
11.6%
30.6%
Failed-to-score rate
23.3%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
29.2%
Failed-to-score rate
45.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
32.7%
Clean-sheet rate
11.6%
30.6%
Failed-to-score rate
23.3%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
29.2%
Failed-to-score rate
45.0%
32.7%
Clean-sheet rate
11.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
49
History Matches
43
0.98
Result entropy
0.98
1.82
Goal Difference Std
1.81
2.32
Stability score
2.25
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
48
Eligible Matches
43
13
Lead Matches
13
76.9%
Lead Win Rate
84.6%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.90
14
Trailing Matches
14
21.4%
Non-loss rate
50.0%
14.3%
Trailing Win Rate
21.4%
Goal timing5 signals
50
48
Halftime Coverage Matches
43
0.54
First Half Goals For Mean
0.72
0.71
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
0.83
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.02
0.56
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.02
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.83
Rest days
84.83
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
0
2.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
21
Normal Rest History Matches
21
1.43
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.67
24
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.58
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.19
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
4
1.80
PPG
1.75
60.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
40.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
80.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
60.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.85
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.55
5
Current Competition Matches
4
1.80
Current Competition PPG
1.75
0.60
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
4
Competition Season Count
3
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.17
Portability PPG Std
0.25
0.42
Portability PPG Range
0.55
74.61
Portability Score
66.55
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
49
Clean History Matches
43
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO38.63
PPG0.11
GF-0.40
GA-0.41
PPG0.05
PPG1.63
PPG0.20
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate21.0%
Failed-to-score rate7.4%
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate50.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.16
History Matches6
Goals Mean-0.40
Goals Std-0.32
Scored 1+ rate-0.07
Scored 2+ rate-0.08
Scored 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Goals Mean0.77
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.21
History Matches6
Conceded Mean-0.41
Conceded Std0.08
Clean-sheet rate21.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.09
Conceded 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Conceded Mean-1.21
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.15
History Matches6
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std0.01
Stability score0.07
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.31
Eligible Matches5
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate-0.08
Lead Points Retention-0.05
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate-0.29
Trailing Win Rate-0.07
Halftime Coverage Matches5
First Half Goals For Mean-0.18
First Half Goals Against Mean0.06
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.19
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.46
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG0.05
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.60
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.08
Portability PPG Range-0.13
Portability Score8.06
Rest days-6.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.24
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.39
Current Team ELO38.63
Current Opponent ELO-38.63
Current ELO Difference77.25
Expected score0.11
History Matches6
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance2.25
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.05

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Monarcas

L
Durango3–1Monarcas1 Nov · away
Pick: Monarcas 44% · missed
L
Monarcas1–2CDS Tampico Madero18 Oct · home
Pick: Monarcas 45% · missed
D
Monarcas1–1Tlaxcala4 Oct · home
Pick: Monarcas 62% · missed
W
Dorados0–1Monarcas29 Aug · away
Pick: Dorados 37% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Venados FC

D
Correcaminos Uat0–0Venados FC31 Oct · away
Pick: Correcaminos Uat 48% · missed
W
Venados FC3–2Durango24 Oct · home
Pick: Venados FC 46% · hit
D
Cancún1–1Venados FC18 Oct · away
Pick: Cancún 49% · missed
L
Tlaxcala3–1Venados FC29 Aug · away
Pick: Venados FC 45% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Monarcas and Venados FC meet in Liga de Expansión MX on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 21:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Morelos, Morelia. ScoreProb published its prediction on 3 Nov, 07:46 UTC: Monarcas win 48.1%, draw 27.7%, Venados FC win 24.2%. The pick is Monarcas win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.0%. Both teams to score: 56.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.