ScoreProb
Liga de Expansión MX Mexico Quarter-finals 2026

CA La Paz vs Tlaxcala

CA La Paz Home · Elo 1,488
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Tlaxcala Away · Elo 1,425
Estadio Guaycura, La Paz Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 3 Nov, 07:46 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: CA La Paz win
CA La Paz winPick
57.9%
Draw
19.4%
Tlaxcala win
22.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes59.3%
No40.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.566.9%
Under 2.533.1%

How much we know

CA La Paz history44 matches
Tlaxcala history41 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 4 d 13 h ahead
    3 Nov · 07:46 UTC
  2. Re-published 3 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 01:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 21:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (57.9%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why CA La Paz are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • CA La Paz are rated 63 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,488 against 1,425. On rating alone CA La Paz would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • CA La Paz score more

    1.64 goals a game over 44 matches for CA La Paz, against 1.22 over 41 for Tlaxcala.

  • CA La Paz concede fewer

    CA La Paz concede 1.70 a game, Tlaxcala 1.95.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    64% of CA La Paz matches, against 61% for Tlaxcala. The model puts this match at 67% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
CA La Paz
Tlaxcala
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1488.5
ELO
1425.1
44
ELO · Matches
41
1488.5
Current Team ELO
1425.1
1425.1
Current Opponent ELO
1488.5
63.41
Current ELO Difference
-63.41
0.59
Expected score
0.41
44
History Matches
41
0.00
Residual Mean
-0.09
49.75
Overperformance
44.09
-0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.27
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
0.20
2.00
Goals for per game
1.40
1.20
Goals against per game
2.80
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
0.40
1.50
Goals for per game
1.10
1.60
Goals against per game
2.20
20.0%
Win rate
0.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
1.36
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.83
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.20
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.08
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.61
2.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.94
Overall performance9 signals
90
44
Matches
41
1.16
PPG
0.95
27.3%
Win rate
19.5%
34.1%
Draw rate
36.6%
38.6%
Loss rate
43.9%
88.6%
Over 1.5 rate
82.9%
63.6%
Over 2.5 rate
61.0%
47.7%
Over 3.5 rate
39.0%
2.07
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.56
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
20
1.42
PPG
0.55
37.5%
Win rate
10.0%
29.2%
Draw rate
25.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
65.0%
87.5%
Over 1.5 rate
85.0%
58.3%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
37.5%
Over 3.5 rate
45.0%
2.20
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.53
24
History Matches
20
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.64
Goals for per game
1.22
79.5%
Scoring rate
70.7%
61.4%
BTTS rate
65.9%
1.63
Goals for per game
0.95
79.2%
Scoring rate
65.0%
54.2%
BTTS rate
65.0%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.40
80.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
40.0%
BTTS rate
80.0%
44
History Matches
41
1.64
Goals Mean
1.22
1.24
Goals Std
1.12
79.5%
Scored 1+ rate
70.7%
50.0%
Scored 2+ rate
34.1%
25.0%
Scored 3+ rate
12.2%
1.63
Venue Goals Mean
0.95
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.70
Goals against per game
1.95
77.3%
Conceding rate
87.8%
1.42
Goals against per game
2.35
70.8%
Conceding rate
90.0%
1.20
Goals against per game
2.80
60.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
44
History Matches
41
1.70
Conceded Mean
1.95
1.39
Conceded Std
1.27
52.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
61.0%
25.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
31.7%
1.42
Venue Conceded Mean
2.35
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
22.7%
Clean-sheet rate
12.2%
20.5%
Failed-to-score rate
29.3%
29.2%
Clean-sheet rate
10.0%
20.8%
Failed-to-score rate
35.0%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
22.7%
Clean-sheet rate
12.2%
20.5%
Failed-to-score rate
29.3%
29.2%
Clean-sheet rate
10.0%
20.8%
Failed-to-score rate
35.0%
22.7%
Clean-sheet rate
12.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
44
History Matches
41
0.99
Result entropy
0.95
2.07
Goal Difference Std
1.56
0.91
Stability score
4.59
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
42
Eligible Matches
40
15
Lead Matches
9
60.0%
Lead Win Rate
55.6%
0.69
Lead Points Retention
0.70
12
Trailing Matches
19
33.3%
Non-loss rate
31.6%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
10.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
42
Halftime Coverage Matches
40
0.88
First Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.74
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.93
0.79
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.73
0.93
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.75
Rest days
78.83
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
21
Normal Rest History Matches
20
1.38
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.90
20
Long Rest History Matches
20
0.95
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
0.20
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
40.0%
Loss rate
80.0%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
80.0%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
80.0%
2.48
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.80
5
Current Competition Matches
5
1.40
Current Competition PPG
0.20
0.80
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.40
5
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.26
Portability PPG Std
0.41
0.60
Portability PPG Range
0.93
65.63
Portability Score
54.96
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
44
Clean History Matches
41
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO63.41
PPG0.21
GF0.42
GA-0.25
PPG1.20
PPG0.87
PPG1.20
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate10.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate19.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches3
Goals Mean0.42
Goals Std0.13
Scored 1+ rate8.8%
Scored 2+ rate15.9%
Scored 3+ rate12.8%
Venue Goals Mean0.68
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.53
History Matches3
Conceded Mean-0.25
Conceded Std0.12
Clean-sheet rate10.5%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.09
Conceded 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Conceded Mean-0.93
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.12
History Matches3
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std0.51
Stability score-3.69
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.32
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.13
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches6
Lead Win Rate4.4%
Lead Points Retention-0.01
Trailing Matches-7
Non-loss rate1.8%
Trailing Win Rate-0.11
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean0.38
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.19
Second Half Goals For Mean0.06
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.07
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.20
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.15
Portability PPG Range-0.33
Portability Score10.67
Rest days-1.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.48
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.05
Current Team ELO63.41
Current Opponent ELO-63.41
Current ELO Difference126.8
Expected score0.18
History Matches3
Residual Mean0.08
Overperformance5.66
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.21

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

CA La Paz

W
CA La Paz3–0Dorados31 Oct · home
Pick: CA La Paz 51% · hit
W
CDS Tampico Madero1–3CA La Paz25 Oct · away
Pick: CDS Tampico Madero 42% · missed
D
CA La Paz2–2Tlaxcala17 Oct · home
Pick: CA La Paz 58% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Tlaxcala

W
Cruz Azul Hidalgo0–2Tlaxcala31 Oct · away
Pick: Cruz Azul Hidalgo 48% · missed
W
Tlaxcala2–0Correcaminos Uat25 Oct · home
Pick: Correcaminos Uat 45% · missed
D
CA La Paz2–2Tlaxcala17 Oct · away
Pick: CA La Paz 58% · missed
D
Monarcas1–1Tlaxcala4 Oct · away
Pick: Monarcas 62% · missed
W
Tlaxcala3–1Venados FC29 Aug · home
Pick: Venados FC 45% · missed

About this match

CA La Paz and Tlaxcala meet in Liga de Expansión MX on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 21:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Guaycura, La Paz. ScoreProb published its prediction on 3 Nov, 07:46 UTC: CA La Paz win 57.9%, draw 19.4%, Tlaxcala win 22.7%. The pick is CA La Paz win. Over 2.5 goals: 66.9%. Both teams to score: 59.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.