Lithuania vs Suriname
Match result probability Model pick: Lithuania win
Lithuania winPick
35.2%
Draw
30.5%
Suriname win
34.3%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes49.9%
No50.1%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.547.4%
Under 2.552.6%
How much we know
Lithuania history13 matches
Suriname history10 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Lithuania
Over / under 2.5: ours Under
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead6 Nov · 08:47 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 16:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre12 Nov · 17:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,392 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,699
40–49% Won 45.5% · said 44.8% · n 6,277
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,777
60–69% Won 63.7% · said 64.4% · n 1,884
70–79% Won 76.4% · said 73.9% · n 589
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.4% · n 166
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (35.2%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,699 matches.
Why Lithuania are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Suriname are rated 51 Elo points higher
Elo 1,498 against 1,447. On rating alone Suriname would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.
-
Suriname score far more
0.69 goals a game over 13 matches for Lithuania, against 1.30 over 10 for Suriname.
-
Suriname concede fewer
Lithuania concede 1.77 a game, Suriname 1.30.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
38% of Lithuania matches, against 40% for Suriname. The model puts this match at 47% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 6 Jun 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Suriname@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1446.6
ELO
1497.8
13
ELO · Matches
10
1446.6
Current Team ELO
1497.8
1497.8
Current Opponent ELO
1446.6
-51.25
Current ELO Difference
51.25
0.43
Expected score
0.57
13
History Matches
10
-0.20
Residual Mean
-0.03
42.23
Overperformance
49.04
-0.21
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.03
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.60
0.60
Goals for per game
1.80
1.40
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.60
PPG
1.10
0.70
Goals for per game
1.30
2.00
Goals against per game
1.30
10.0%
Win rate
20.0%
0.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
0.78
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.27
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.55
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.27
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.95
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.61
Overall performance9 signals 90
13
Matches
10
0.62
PPG
1.10
7.7%
Win rate
20.0%
38.5%
Draw rate
50.0%
53.8%
Loss rate
30.0%
76.9%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
38.5%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
30.8%
Over 3.5 rate
30.0%
1.77
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.61
Venue performance10 signals 100
7
Matches
6
0.57
PPG
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
16.7%
57.1%
Draw rate
50.0%
42.9%
Loss rate
33.3%
85.7%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
28.6%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
28.6%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
0.88
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.94
7
History Matches
6
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
0.69
Goals for per game
1.30
46.2%
Scoring rate
70.0%
38.5%
BTTS rate
60.0%
0.86
Goals for per game
1.33
57.1%
Scoring rate
83.3%
57.1%
BTTS rate
83.3%
1.00
Goals for per game
—
50.0%
Scoring rate
—
0.0%
BTTS rate
—
13
History Matches
10
0.69
Goals Mean
1.30
0.82
Goals Std
1.27
46.2%
Scored 1+ rate
70.0%
23.1%
Scored 2+ rate
30.0%
0.0%
Scored 3+ rate
20.0%
0.86
Venue Goals Mean
1.33
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.77
Goals against per game
1.30
76.9%
Conceding rate
70.0%
1.57
Goals against per game
1.67
85.7%
Conceding rate
83.3%
1.00
Goals against per game
—
50.0%
Conceding rate
—
13
History Matches
10
1.77
Conceded Mean
1.30
1.48
Conceded Std
1.27
53.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
30.0%
23.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.0%
1.57
Venue Conceded Mean
1.67
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
23.1%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
53.8%
Failed-to-score rate
30.0%
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
42.9%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
—
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
—
23.1%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
53.8%
Failed-to-score rate
30.0%
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
42.9%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
23.1%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
13
History Matches
10
0.82
Result entropy
0.94
1.77
Goal Difference Std
1.61
18.25
Stability score
6.28
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
13
Eligible Matches
10
3
Lead Matches
3
33.3%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.44
Lead Points Retention
0.78
4
Trailing Matches
1
25.0%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
13
Halftime Coverage Matches
10
0.46
First Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.69
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.30
0.23
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.80
1.08
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
159.2
Rest days
358.7
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
3
Normal Rest History Matches
5
0.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.00
6
Long Rest History Matches
3
1.17
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.67
Competition & season17 signals 170
2
Matches
0
1.50
PPG
—
50.0%
Win rate
—
0.0%
Draw rate
—
50.0%
Loss rate
—
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
—
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
—
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
—
2.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
2
Current Competition Matches
0
1.50
Current Competition PPG
—
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
—
4
Competition Season Count
2
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.55
—
Portability PPG Range
1.10
—
Portability Score
47.73
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
13
Clean History Matches
10
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
ELO-51.25
PPG-0.48
GF-0.61
GA0.47
PPG-0.43
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Failed-to-score rate23.8%
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate26.2%
History Matches3
Goals Mean-0.61
Goals Std-0.45
Scored 1+ rate-0.24
Scored 2+ rate-0.07
Scored 3+ rate-0.20
Venue Goals Mean-0.48
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.49
History Matches3
Conceded Mean0.47
Conceded Std0.21
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Conceded 2+ rate23.8%
Conceded 3+ rate3.1%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.28
History Matches3
Result entropy-0.12
Goal Difference Std0.16
Stability score11.97
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.34
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate-0.33
Lead Points Retention-0.33
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate25.0%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.04
First Half Goals Against Mean0.39
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.57
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.08
Current Competition Matches2
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Rest days-199.5
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match0.33
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.00
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.50
Current Team ELO-51.25
Current Opponent ELO51.25
Current ELO Difference-102.5
Expected score-0.15
History Matches3
Residual Mean-0.17
Overperformance-6.81
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.18
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
About this match
Lithuania and Suriname meet in Friendlies on Thursday 12 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 6 Nov, 08:47 UTC: Lithuania win 35.2%, draw 30.5%, Suriname win 34.3%. The pick is Lithuania win. Over 2.5 goals: 47.4%. Both teams to score: 49.9%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.