Malta vs Eswatini
Match result probability Model pick: Malta win
Malta winPick
40.8%
Draw
26.7%
Eswatini win
32.4%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes51.9%
No48.1%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.552.5%
Under 2.547.5%
How much we know
Malta history14 matches
Eswatini history10 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Malta
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead6 Nov · 08:47 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 16:30 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre12 Nov · 17:30 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,392 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,699
40–49% Won 45.5% · said 44.8% · n 6,277
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,777
60–69% Won 63.7% · said 64.4% · n 1,884
70–79% Won 76.4% · said 73.9% · n 589
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.4% · n 166
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.8%). Picks in that band won 45.5% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,277 matches.
Why Malta are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,448 against 1,447. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
-
Scoring rates are level
0.79 goals a game over 14 matches for Malta, against 0.80 over 10 for Eswatini.
-
Defences are close
Malta concede 2.21 a game, Eswatini 2.00.
-
Eswatini games more often go over 2.5 goals
50% of Malta matches, against 60% for Eswatini. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 6 Jun 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Eswatini@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1447.7
ELO
1447.1
14
ELO · Matches
10
1447.7
Current Team ELO
1447.1
1447.1
Current Opponent ELO
1447.7
0.54
Current ELO Difference
-0.54
0.50
Expected score
0.50
14
History Matches
10
-0.19
Residual Mean
-0.26
42.33
Overperformance
41.24
-0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.26
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
0.20
1.00
Goals for per game
0.60
2.00
Goals against per game
2.20
20.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
0.40
1.10
Goals for per game
0.80
2.00
Goals against per game
2.00
30.0%
Win rate
0.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.80
0.94
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.98
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
1.41
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.89
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.61
2.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.17
Overall performance9 signals 90
14
Matches
10
0.79
PPG
0.40
21.4%
Win rate
0.0%
14.3%
Draw rate
40.0%
64.3%
Loss rate
60.0%
78.6%
Over 1.5 rate
90.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
35.7%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
2.53
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.17
Venue performance10 signals 100
7
Matches
5
0.57
PPG
0.20
14.3%
Win rate
0.0%
14.3%
Draw rate
20.0%
71.4%
Loss rate
80.0%
71.4%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
57.1%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
57.1%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.83
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.10
7
History Matches
5
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
0.79
Goals for per game
0.80
50.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
35.7%
BTTS rate
50.0%
0.86
Goals for per game
0.20
42.9%
Scoring rate
20.0%
42.9%
BTTS rate
20.0%
1.50
Goals for per game
—
100.0%
Scoring rate
—
50.0%
BTTS rate
—
14
History Matches
10
0.79
Goals Mean
0.80
0.94
Goals Std
0.98
50.0%
Scored 1+ rate
50.0%
21.4%
Scored 2+ rate
20.0%
7.1%
Scored 3+ rate
10.0%
0.86
Venue Goals Mean
0.20
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
2.21
Goals against per game
2.00
78.6%
Conceding rate
90.0%
2.14
Goals against per game
2.20
85.7%
Conceding rate
100.0%
1.00
Goals against per game
—
50.0%
Conceding rate
—
14
History Matches
10
2.21
Conceded Mean
2.00
2.08
Conceded Std
0.89
57.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
80.0%
35.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
30.0%
2.14
Venue Conceded Mean
2.20
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
21.4%
Clean-sheet rate
10.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
57.1%
Failed-to-score rate
80.0%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
—
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
—
21.4%
Clean-sheet rate
10.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
57.1%
Failed-to-score rate
80.0%
21.4%
Clean-sheet rate
10.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
14
History Matches
10
0.81
Result entropy
0.61
2.53
Goal Difference Std
1.17
18.80
Stability score
38.74
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
14
Eligible Matches
10
1
Lead Matches
1
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
0.0%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.33
6
Trailing Matches
3
0.0%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
14
Halftime Coverage Matches
10
0.36
First Half Goals For Mean
0.30
0.79
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.70
0.43
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.50
1.43
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.30
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
160.0
Rest days
226.1
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
5
Normal Rest History Matches
4
1.20
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.25
6
Long Rest History Matches
4
0.83
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.50
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Portability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
2
Matches
0
1.50
PPG
—
50.0%
Win rate
—
0.0%
Draw rate
—
50.0%
Loss rate
—
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
—
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
—
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
—
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
2
Current Competition Matches
0
1.50
Current Competition PPG
—
0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
—
4
Competition Season Count
3
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
14
Clean History Matches
10
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
ELO0.54
PPG0.39
GF-0.01
GA0.21
PPG0.37
PPG0.40
PPG0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate11.4%
Failed-to-score rate0.0%
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate14.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.23
History Matches4
Goals Mean-0.01
Goals Std-0.04
Scored 1+ rate0.0%
Scored 2+ rate1.4%
Scored 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Goals Mean0.66
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.04
History Matches4
Conceded Mean0.21
Conceded Std1.18
Clean-sheet rate11.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.23
Conceded 3+ rate5.7%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.06
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.52
History Matches4
Result entropy0.20
Goal Difference Std1.36
Stability score-19.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.20
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.86
Eligible Matches4
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate100.0%
Lead Points Retention0.67
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate-0.33
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches4
First Half Goals For Mean0.06
First Half Goals Against Mean0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.07
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.13
Current Competition Matches2
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Rest days-66.17
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.95
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.33
Current Team ELO0.54
Current Opponent ELO-0.54
Current ELO Difference1.07
Expected score0.00
History Matches4
Residual Mean0.08
Overperformance1.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.14
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
About this match
Malta and Eswatini meet in Friendlies on Thursday 12 November 2026, kickoff 17:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 6 Nov, 08:47 UTC: Malta win 40.8%, draw 26.7%, Eswatini win 32.4%. The pick is Malta win. Over 2.5 goals: 52.5%. Both teams to score: 51.9%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.