Scotland U21 vs Ukraine U21
Match result probability Model pick: Scotland U21 win
Scotland U21 winPick
40.2%
Draw
24.5%
Ukraine U21 win
35.3%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes48.1%
No51.9%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.551.8%
Under 2.548.2%
How much we know
Scotland U21 history8 matches
Ukraine U21 history11 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Scotland U21
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead6 Nov · 08:47 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 12:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre12 Nov · 13:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,392 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,699
40–49% Won 45.5% · said 44.8% · n 6,277
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,777
60–69% Won 63.7% · said 64.4% · n 1,884
70–79% Won 76.4% · said 73.9% · n 589
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.4% · n 166
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.2%). Picks in that band won 45.5% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,277 matches.
Why Scotland U21 are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,500 against 1,480. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
-
Scotland U21 score far more
2.25 goals a game over 8 matches for Scotland U21, against 1.27 over 11 for Ukraine U21.
-
Scotland U21 concede fewer
Scotland U21 concede 1.25 a game, Ukraine U21 1.55.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
38% of Scotland U21 matches, against 45% for Ukraine U21. The model puts this match at 52% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 8 Jun 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Scotland U21
Ukraine U21@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1500.5
ELO
1479.6
8
ELO · Matches
11
1500.5
Current Team ELO
1479.6
1479.6
Current Opponent ELO
1500.5
20.92
Current ELO Difference
-20.92
0.53
Expected score
0.47
8
History Matches
11
0.00
Residual Mean
-0.13
50.09
Overperformance
45.21
0.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.10
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
0.80
1.20
Goals for per game
0.60
1.20
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
8
Matches
10
1.38
PPG
1.10
2.25
Goals for per game
1.20
1.25
Goals against per game
1.40
37.5%
Win rate
30.0%
2.25
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
3.83
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.40
1.25
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.02
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
4.44
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.99
Overall performance9 signals 90
8
Matches
11
1.38
PPG
1.00
37.5%
Win rate
27.3%
25.0%
Draw rate
18.2%
37.5%
Loss rate
54.5%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
81.8%
37.5%
Over 2.5 rate
45.5%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
27.3%
4.44
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.91
Venue performance10 signals 100
4
Matches
8
1.75
PPG
1.13
50.0%
Win rate
37.5%
25.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
62.5%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
25.0%
Over 2.5 rate
37.5%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
12.5%
5.45
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.22
4
History Matches
8
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
2.25
Goals for per game
1.27
50.0%
Scoring rate
54.5%
12.5%
BTTS rate
36.4%
3.25
Goals for per game
1.00
50.0%
Scoring rate
37.5%
0.0%
BTTS rate
12.5%
—
Goals for per game
0.00
—
Scoring rate
0.0%
—
BTTS rate
0.0%
8
History Matches
11
2.25
Goals Mean
1.27
3.83
Goals Std
1.35
50.0%
Scored 1+ rate
54.5%
37.5%
Scored 2+ rate
45.5%
25.0%
Scored 3+ rate
18.2%
3.25
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.25
Goals against per game
1.55
50.0%
Conceding rate
81.8%
0.50
Goals against per game
1.25
25.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
—
Goals against per game
3.00
—
Conceding rate
100.0%
8
History Matches
11
1.25
Conceded Mean
1.55
1.30
Conceded Std
1.08
50.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
45.5%
25.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
27.3%
0.50
Venue Conceded Mean
1.25
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
45.5%
75.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
62.5%
—
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
—
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
45.5%
75.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
62.5%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
8
History Matches
11
0.99
Result entropy
0.91
4.44
Goal Difference Std
1.91
1.49
Stability score
9.44
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
8
Eligible Matches
11
4
Lead Matches
3
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.67
3
Trailing Matches
3
0.0%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
8
Halftime Coverage Matches
11
1.38
First Half Goals For Mean
0.36
0.63
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.45
0.88
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.91
0.63
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.09
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
225.8
Rest days
157.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
3
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
3
Normal Rest History Matches
2
0.33
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.50
3
Long Rest History Matches
5
2.33
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0
Matches
1
—
PPG
0.00
—
Win rate
0.0%
—
Draw rate
0.0%
—
Loss rate
100.0%
—
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
—
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
—
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0
Current Competition Matches
1
—
Current Competition PPG
0.00
—
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-3.00
1
Competition Season Count
4
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.17
—
Portability PPG Range
0.33
—
Portability Score
75.00
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
8
Clean History Matches
11
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
ELO20.92
PPG0.38
GF0.98
GA-0.30
PPG0.63
PPG0.80
PPG0.28
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate31.8%
Failed-to-score rate4.5%
History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate50.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches-3
Goals Mean0.98
Goals Std2.48
Scored 1+ rate-0.05
Scored 2+ rate-0.08
Scored 3+ rate6.8%
Venue Goals Mean2.25
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.05
Recent 10 Goals Std2.43
History Matches-3
Conceded Mean-0.30
Conceded Std0.22
Clean-sheet rate31.8%
Conceded 2+ rate4.5%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean-0.75
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.15
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.28
History Matches-3
Result entropy0.08
Goal Difference Std2.53
Stability score-7.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std2.45
Eligible Matches-3
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate8.3%
Lead Points Retention0.17
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate0.0%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-3
First Half Goals For Mean1.01
First Half Goals Against Mean0.17
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.03
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.47
Current Competition Matches-1
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Rest days68.77
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match2.00
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.17
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match1.33
Current Team ELO20.92
Current Opponent ELO-20.92
Current ELO Difference41.84
Expected score0.06
History Matches-3
Residual Mean0.14
Overperformance4.88
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.10
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Scotland U21
W
Bulgaria U210–2Scotland U216 Oct · away
Pick: Bulgaria U21 42% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Ukraine U21
D
Ukraine U212–2Albania U215 Oct · home
Pick: Albania U21 44% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Scotland U21 and Ukraine U21 meet in Friendlies on Thursday 12 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 6 Nov, 08:47 UTC: Scotland U21 win 40.2%, draw 24.5%, Ukraine U21 win 35.3%. The pick is Scotland U21 win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.8%. Both teams to score: 48.1%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.