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FAW Championship Wales North - 4 2026

Llanuwchllyn vs Rhyl

Llanuwchllyn Home · Elo 1,479
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Rhyl Away · Elo 1,512
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Rhyl win
Llanuwchllyn win
17.9%
Draw
20.9%
Rhyl winPick
61.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.4%
No48.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.567.5%
Under 2.532.5%

How much we know

Llanuwchllyn history4 matches
Rhyl history43 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (61.2%). Picks in that band won 63.9% of the time, and the model said 64.4% on average, over 2,031 matches.

Why Rhyl are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Rhyl are rated 32 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,512 against 1,479. On rating alone Rhyl would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Rhyl score far more

    0.75 goals a game over 4 matches for Llanuwchllyn, against 1.60 over 43 for Rhyl.

  • Rhyl concede fewer

    Llanuwchllyn concede 3.25 a game, Rhyl 1.77.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    75% of Llanuwchllyn matches, against 72% for Rhyl. The model puts this match at 67% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 15 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Llanuwchllyn
Rhyl@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1479.4
ELO
1511.7
4
ELO · Matches
43
1479.4
Current Team ELO
1511.7
1511.7
Current Opponent ELO
1479.4
-32.26
Current ELO Difference
32.26
0.45
Expected score
0.55
4
History Matches
43
-0.31
Residual Mean
0.02
44.89
Overperformance
51.07
-0.31
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.16
Recent form16 signals
160
4
Matches
5
0.75
PPG
0.80
0.75
Goals for per game
1.40
3.25
Goals against per game
1.80
25.0%
Win rate
20.0%
4
Matches
10
0.75
PPG
1.00
0.75
Goals for per game
1.40
3.25
Goals against per game
1.70
25.0%
Win rate
30.0%
0.75
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
0.83
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.28
3.25
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
1.79
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.10
0.51
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
2.29
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.73
Overall performance9 signals
90
4
Matches
43
0.75
PPG
1.53
25.0%
Win rate
46.5%
0.0%
Draw rate
14.0%
75.0%
Loss rate
39.5%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
81.4%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
72.1%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
44.2%
2.29
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.94
Venue performance10 signals
100
1
Matches
21
3.00
PPG
1.14
100.0%
Win rate
33.3%
0.0%
Draw rate
14.3%
0.0%
Loss rate
52.4%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
76.2%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
61.9%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
38.1%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.99
1
History Matches
21
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.75
Goals for per game
1.60
50.0%
Scoring rate
79.1%
50.0%
BTTS rate
65.1%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.14
100.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
100.0%
BTTS rate
57.1%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.67
66.7%
Scoring rate
66.7%
66.7%
BTTS rate
66.7%
4
History Matches
43
0.75
Goals Mean
1.60
0.83
Goals Std
1.16
50.0%
Scored 1+ rate
79.1%
25.0%
Scored 2+ rate
51.2%
0.0%
Scored 3+ rate
25.6%
2.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.14
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
3.25
Goals against per game
1.77
100.0%
Conceding rate
81.4%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.95
100.0%
Conceding rate
85.7%
3.67
Goals against per game
1.33
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
4
History Matches
43
3.25
Conceded Mean
1.77
1.79
Conceded Std
1.46
75.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
51.2%
50.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
25.6%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.95
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
18.6%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.9%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
18.6%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.9%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
18.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
4
History Matches
43
0.51
Result entropy
0.91
2.29
Goal Difference Std
1.94
48.81
Stability score
9.18
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
4
Eligible Matches
43
0
Lead Matches
13
—
Lead Win Rate
69.2%
—
Lead Points Retention
0.74
3
Trailing Matches
14
0.0%
Non-loss rate
35.7%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
28.6%
Goal timing5 signals
50
4
Halftime Coverage Matches
43
0.00
First Half Goals For Mean
0.60
1.50
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
0.75
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.00
1.75
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.12
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
91.02
Rest days
91.02
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
3
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
2
Normal Rest History Matches
22
1.50
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.32
1
Long Rest History Matches
17
0.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.59
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
1.00
PPG
1.33
33.3%
Win rate
33.3%
0.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
66.7%
Loss rate
33.3%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
2.62
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.25
3
Current Competition Matches
3
1.00
Current Competition PPG
1.33
-2.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.33
2
Competition Season Count
5
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
—
Portability PPG Std
0.89
—
Portability PPG Range
2.50
—
Portability Score
35.93
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
4
Clean History Matches
43
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreLead Win RateLead Points RetentionPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-32.26
PPG-0.78
GF-0.85
GA1.48
PPG-0.33
PPG1.86
PPG-0.05
PPG-0.25
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-39
Clean-sheet rate-0.19
Failed-to-score rate29.1%
History Matches-20
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Failed-to-score rate-0.33
History Matches-39
Goals Mean-0.85
Goals Std-0.34
Scored 1+ rate-0.29
Scored 2+ rate-0.26
Scored 3+ rate-0.26
Venue Goals Mean0.86
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.65
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.45
History Matches-39
Conceded Mean1.48
Conceded Std0.33
Clean-sheet rate-0.19
Conceded 2+ rate23.8%
Conceded 3+ rate24.4%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.95
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.55
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.69
History Matches-39
Result entropy-0.40
Goal Difference Std0.35
Stability score39.63
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.31
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.56
Eligible Matches-39
Lead Matches-13
Trailing Matches-11
Non-loss rate-0.36
Trailing Win Rate-0.29
Halftime Coverage Matches-39
First Half Goals For Mean-0.60
First Half Goals Against Mean0.85
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.25
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.63
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-3.00
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count-3
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest History Matches-20
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.18
Long Rest History Matches-16
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.59
Current Team ELO-32.26
Current Opponent ELO32.26
Current ELO Difference-64.52
Expected score-0.09
History Matches-39
Residual Mean-0.32
Overperformance-6.18
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.14

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Llanuwchllyn

L
Porthmadog1–0Llanuwchllyn7 Nov · away
Pick: Porthmadog 78% · hit
L
Llanuwchllyn3–4Denbigh Town31 Oct · home
Pick: Denbigh Town 49% · hit
D
Llanuwchllyn3–3Bala Town24 Oct · home
Pick: Bala Town 55% · missed
L
Newtown AFC7–0Llanuwchllyn17 Oct · away
Pick: Newtown AFC 80% · hit
W
Llanuwchllyn2–0Gresford Athletic31 Aug · home
Pick: Llanuwchllyn 48% · hit

Rhyl

D
Rhyl1–1Holyhead Hotspur7 Nov · home
Pick: Rhyl 60% · missed
L
Mold Alexandra2–1Rhyl31 Oct · away
Pick: Mold Alexandra 44% · hit
D
Rhyl2–2Newtown AFC24 Oct · home
Pick: Newtown AFC 44% · missed
W
Denbigh Town1–3Rhyl31 Aug · away
Pick: Denbigh Town 44% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Llanuwchllyn and Rhyl meet in FAW Championship on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Llanuwchllyn win 17.9%, draw 20.9%, Rhyl win 61.2%. The pick is Rhyl win. Over 2.5 goals: 67.5%. Both teams to score: 51.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.