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FAW Championship Wales South - 7 2026

Llantwit Major vs Cardiff Draconians

Llantwit Major Home · Elo 1,440
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Cardiff Draconians Away · Elo 1,473
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Cardiff Draconians win
Llantwit Major win
33.5%
Draw
17.0%
Cardiff Draconians winPick
49.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes60.2%
No39.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.561.9%
Under 2.538.1%

How much we know

Llantwit Major history46 matches
Cardiff Draconians history38 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (49.5%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Cardiff Draconians are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Cardiff Draconians are rated 34 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,473 against 1,440. On rating alone Cardiff Draconians would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Cardiff Draconians score more

    1.35 goals a game over 46 matches for Llantwit Major, against 1.74 over 38 for Cardiff Draconians.

  • Defences are close

    Llantwit Major concede 1.63 a game, Cardiff Draconians 1.71.

  • Cardiff Draconians games more often go over 2.5 goals

    59% of Llantwit Major matches, against 68% for Cardiff Draconians. The model puts this match at 62% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Llantwit Major
Cardiff Draconians@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1439.6
ELO
1473.4
46
ELO · Matches
38
1439.6
Current Team ELO
1473.4
1473.4
Current Opponent ELO
1439.6
-33.79
Current ELO Difference
33.79
0.45
Expected score
0.55
46
History Matches
38
-0.06
Residual Mean
-0.04
45.69
Overperformance
47.35
-0.35
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.00
PPG
1.40
0.40
Goals for per game
1.80
3.40
Goals against per game
1.60
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.40
PPG
1.20
1.10
Goals for per game
1.90
3.10
Goals against per game
2.00
10.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
0.94
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.81
3.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
1.37
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.41
0.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.95
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.21
Overall performance9 signals
90
46
Matches
38
1.17
PPG
1.34
30.4%
Win rate
39.5%
26.1%
Draw rate
15.8%
43.5%
Loss rate
44.7%
78.3%
Over 1.5 rate
76.3%
58.7%
Over 2.5 rate
68.4%
37.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.72
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.81
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
20
1.42
PPG
1.00
41.7%
Win rate
25.0%
16.7%
Draw rate
25.0%
41.7%
Loss rate
50.0%
70.8%
Over 1.5 rate
70.0%
54.2%
Over 2.5 rate
65.0%
29.2%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.42
24
History Matches
20
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.35
Goals for per game
1.74
73.9%
Scoring rate
73.7%
63.0%
BTTS rate
63.2%
1.29
Goals for per game
1.40
70.8%
Scoring rate
75.0%
54.2%
BTTS rate
65.0%
0.25
Goals for per game
1.25
25.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
25.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
46
History Matches
38
1.35
Goals Mean
1.74
1.17
Goals Std
1.41
73.9%
Scored 1+ rate
73.7%
37.0%
Scored 2+ rate
52.6%
17.4%
Scored 3+ rate
31.6%
1.29
Venue Goals Mean
1.40
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.63
Goals against per game
1.71
82.6%
Conceding rate
81.6%
1.38
Goals against per game
1.75
75.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
3.50
Goals against per game
1.75
100.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
46
History Matches
38
1.63
Conceded Mean
1.71
1.24
Conceded Std
1.34
50.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
47.4%
17.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
26.3%
1.38
Venue Conceded Mean
1.75
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
17.4%
Clean-sheet rate
18.4%
26.1%
Failed-to-score rate
26.3%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
29.2%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
75.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
17.4%
Clean-sheet rate
18.4%
26.1%
Failed-to-score rate
26.3%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
29.2%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
17.4%
Clean-sheet rate
18.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
46
History Matches
38
0.98
Result entropy
0.93
1.72
Goal Difference Std
1.81
2.17
Stability score
7.32
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
46
Eligible Matches
38
14
Lead Matches
8
57.1%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.67
Lead Points Retention
1.00
17
Trailing Matches
17
17.6%
Non-loss rate
35.3%
11.8%
Trailing Win Rate
23.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
46
Halftime Coverage Matches
38
0.59
First Half Goals For Mean
0.71
0.70
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.92
0.76
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.03
0.93
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.79
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.02
Rest days
84.02
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
1
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
21
Normal Rest History Matches
19
1.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.84
22
Long Rest History Matches
17
1.18
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.94
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
0.00
PPG
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
25.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.48
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.80
4
Current Competition Matches
4
0.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
-3.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.50
5
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.64
Portability PPG Std
0.57
1.44
Portability PPG Range
1.33
43.97
Portability Score
46.88
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
46
Clean History Matches
38
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-33.79
PPG-0.17
GF-0.39
GA-0.08
PPG-1.00
PPG0.42
PPG-1.40
PPG-0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches8
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate0.00
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate0.0%
Failed-to-score rate4.2%
History Matches8
Goals Mean-0.39
Goals Std-0.24
Scored 1+ rate0.2%
Scored 2+ rate-0.16
Scored 3+ rate-0.14
Venue Goals Mean-0.11
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.87
History Matches8
Conceded Mean-0.08
Conceded Std-0.10
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Conceded 2+ rate2.6%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Conceded Mean-0.38
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.04
History Matches8
Result entropy0.05
Goal Difference Std-0.10
Stability score-5.14
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.41
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.26
Eligible Matches8
Lead Matches6
Lead Win Rate-0.43
Lead Points Retention-0.33
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate-0.18
Trailing Win Rate-0.12
Halftime Coverage Matches8
First Half Goals For Mean-0.12
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.23
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.27
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.15
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.75
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.07
Portability PPG Range0.11
Portability Score-2.91
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match2.00
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.84
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.24
Current Team ELO-33.79
Current Opponent ELO33.79
Current ELO Difference-67.57
Expected score-0.10
History Matches8
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-1.66
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.28

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Llantwit Major

D
Trethomas Bluebirds2–2Llantwit Major7 Nov · away
Pick: Trethomas Bluebirds 52% · missed
L
Llantwit Major2–3Newport City31 Oct · home
Pick: Newport City 55% · hit
W
Caerau (Ely)0–2Llantwit Major23 Oct · away
Pick: Caerau (Ely) 65% · missed
L
Trefelin4–1Llantwit Major17 Oct · away
Pick: Trefelin 54% · hit
L
Pontypridd Town4–1Llantwit Major6 Oct · away
Pick: Pontypridd Town 61% · hit

Cardiff Draconians

L
Swansea University2–0Cardiff Draconians7 Nov · away
Pick: Swansea University 53% · hit
W
Cardiff Draconians2–0Afan Lido31 Oct · home
Pick: Afan Lido 44% · missed
L
Trethomas Bluebirds3–1Cardiff Draconians23 Oct · away
Pick: Trethomas Bluebirds 45% · hit
W
Radnor Valley1–3Cardiff Draconians17 Oct · away
Pick: Radnor Valley 39% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Llantwit Major and Cardiff Draconians meet in FAW Championship on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Llantwit Major win 33.5%, draw 17.0%, Cardiff Draconians win 49.5%. The pick is Cardiff Draconians win. Over 2.5 goals: 61.9%. Both teams to score: 60.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.