ScoreProb
Segunda División Chile Promotion Group - 11 2026

Municipal Salamanca vs Colchagua

Municipal Salamanca Home · Elo 1,551
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Colchagua Away · Elo 1,508
Estadio Municipal de Salamanca Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Municipal Salamanca win
Municipal Salamanca winPick
49.4%
Draw
30.1%
Colchagua win
20.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes42.8%
No57.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.536.8%
Under 2.563.2%

How much we know

Municipal Salamanca history35 matches
Colchagua history15 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 15:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (49.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Municipal Salamanca are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Municipal Salamanca are rated 42 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,551 against 1,508. On rating alone Municipal Salamanca would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • Municipal Salamanca score more

    1.23 goals a game over 35 matches for Municipal Salamanca, against 1.07 over 15 for Colchagua.

  • Municipal Salamanca concede fewer

    Municipal Salamanca concede 0.83 a game, Colchagua 0.93.

  • Colchagua games more often go over 2.5 goals

    34% of Municipal Salamanca matches, against 47% for Colchagua. The model puts this match at 37% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Municipal Salamanca
Colchagua@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1550.5
ELO
1508.1
35
ELO · Matches
15
1550.5
Current Team ELO
1508.1
1508.1
Current Opponent ELO
1550.5
42.44
Current ELO Difference
-42.44
0.56
Expected score
0.44
35
History Matches
15
0.08
Residual Mean
0.03
54.98
Overperformance
51.36
0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
0.80
1.00
Goals for per game
0.20
0.80
Goals against per game
1.40
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
1.30
0.90
Goals for per game
0.70
0.50
Goals against per game
0.90
50.0%
Win rate
30.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.70
0.83
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.00
0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
0.67
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.22
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.78
Overall performance9 signals
90
35
Matches
15
1.71
PPG
1.53
45.7%
Win rate
40.0%
34.3%
Draw rate
33.3%
20.0%
Loss rate
26.7%
65.7%
Over 1.5 rate
60.0%
34.3%
Over 2.5 rate
46.7%
14.3%
Over 3.5 rate
13.3%
1.34
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.71
Venue performance10 signals
100
19
Matches
7
1.74
PPG
1.71
42.1%
Win rate
42.9%
47.4%
Draw rate
42.9%
10.5%
Loss rate
14.3%
63.2%
Over 1.5 rate
42.9%
21.1%
Over 2.5 rate
42.9%
10.5%
Over 3.5 rate
28.6%
1.30
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.64
19
History Matches
7
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.23
Goals for per game
1.07
74.3%
Scoring rate
60.0%
40.0%
BTTS rate
33.3%
1.21
Goals for per game
0.86
68.4%
Scoring rate
57.1%
26.3%
BTTS rate
28.6%
0.85
Goals for per game
1.07
61.5%
Scoring rate
57.1%
38.5%
BTTS rate
28.6%
35
History Matches
15
1.23
Goals Mean
1.07
0.93
Goals Std
1.06
74.3%
Scored 1+ rate
60.0%
40.0%
Scored 2+ rate
33.3%
8.6%
Scored 3+ rate
13.3%
1.21
Venue Goals Mean
0.86
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.83
Goals against per game
0.93
48.6%
Conceding rate
53.3%
0.53
Goals against per game
1.00
31.6%
Conceding rate
42.9%
0.54
Goals against per game
0.86
46.2%
Conceding rate
50.0%
35
History Matches
15
0.83
Conceded Mean
0.93
1.03
Conceded Std
1.12
22.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
26.7%
11.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
6.7%
0.53
Venue Conceded Mean
1.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
51.4%
Clean-sheet rate
46.7%
25.7%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
68.4%
Clean-sheet rate
57.1%
31.6%
Failed-to-score rate
42.9%
53.8%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
38.5%
Failed-to-score rate
42.9%
51.4%
Clean-sheet rate
46.7%
25.7%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
68.4%
Clean-sheet rate
57.1%
31.6%
Failed-to-score rate
42.9%
51.4%
Clean-sheet rate
46.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
35
History Matches
15
0.95
Result entropy
0.99
1.34
Goal Difference Std
1.71
4.72
Stability score
1.22
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
34
Eligible Matches
15
15
Lead Matches
2
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.73
Lead Points Retention
1.00
7
Trailing Matches
5
42.9%
Non-loss rate
60.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
40.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
34
Halftime Coverage Matches
15
0.56
First Half Goals For Mean
0.47
0.35
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.53
0.68
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.60
0.50
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.40
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
77.85
Rest days
77.81
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
9
Normal Rest History Matches
4
2.22
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.75
25
Long Rest History Matches
10
1.60
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.60
Competition & season17 signals
170
13
Matches
14
1.69
PPG
1.64
38.5%
Win rate
42.9%
53.8%
Draw rate
35.7%
7.7%
Loss rate
21.4%
53.8%
Over 1.5 rate
57.1%
15.4%
Over 2.5 rate
42.9%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
14.3%
0.91
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.74
13
Current Competition Matches
14
1.69
Current Competition PPG
1.64
0.31
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.21
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.02
Portability PPG Std
—
0.03
Portability PPG Range
—
96.62
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
35
Clean History Matches
15
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO42.44
PPG0.18
GF0.16
GA-0.10
PPG0.05
PPG0.02
PPG1.20
PPG0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches20
Clean-sheet rate4.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches12
Clean-sheet rate11.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches20
Goals Mean0.16
Goals Std-0.13
Scored 1+ rate14.3%
Scored 2+ rate6.7%
Scored 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Goals Mean0.35
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.17
History Matches20
Conceded Mean-0.10
Conceded Std-0.10
Clean-sheet rate4.8%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.04
Conceded 3+ rate4.8%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.47
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.55
History Matches20
Result entropy-0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.37
Stability score3.50
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.76
Eligible Matches19
Lead Matches13
Lead Win Rate-0.33
Lead Points Retention-0.27
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate-0.17
Trailing Win Rate-0.40
Halftime Coverage Matches19
First Half Goals For Mean0.09
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.18
Second Half Goals For Mean0.08
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.10
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG0.05
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.09
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days0.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.47
Long Rest History Matches15
Long Rest Points Per Match0.00
Current Team ELO42.44
Current Opponent ELO-42.44
Current ELO Difference84.87
Expected score0.12
History Matches20
Residual Mean0.05
Overperformance3.62
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.14

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Municipal Salamanca

D
Concón National0–0Municipal Salamanca31 Oct · away
Pick: Concón National 38% · missed
D
Municipal Salamanca2–2Santiago City25 Oct · home
Pick: Municipal Salamanca 52% · missed
W
Municipal Salamanca2–0Linares Unido4 Oct · home
Pick: Municipal Salamanca 38% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Colchagua

L
Colchagua0–1Trasandino1 Nov · home
Pick: Colchagua 44% · missed
W
Colchagua2–0Provincial Osorno4 Oct · home
Pick: Provincial Osorno 36% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Municipal Salamanca and Colchagua meet in Segunda División on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 15:30 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Municipal de Salamanca. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Municipal Salamanca win 49.4%, draw 30.1%, Colchagua win 20.5%. The pick is Municipal Salamanca win. Over 2.5 goals: 36.8%. Both teams to score: 42.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.