ScoreProb
Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein Germany Schleswig-Holstein - 16 2026

Lübeck II vs Eckernförder SV

Lübeck II Home · Elo 1,482
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Eckernförder SV Away · Elo 1,406
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Lübeck II win
Lübeck II winPick
43.3%
Draw
14.8%
Eckernförder SV win
42.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes63.8%
No36.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.577.2%
Under 2.522.8%

How much we know

Lübeck II history17 matches
Eckernförder SV history16 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.3%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Lübeck II are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Lübeck II are rated 75 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,482 against 1,406. On rating alone Lübeck II would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.

  • Lübeck II score far more

    2.00 goals a game over 17 matches for Lübeck II, against 1.19 over 16 for Eckernförder SV.

  • Lübeck II concede fewer

    Lübeck II concede 2.06 a game, Eckernförder SV 2.81.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    82% of Lübeck II matches, against 81% for Eckernförder SV. The model puts this match at 77% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Lübeck II
Eckernförder SV
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1481.6
ELO
1406.2
17
ELO · Matches
16
1481.6
Current Team ELO
1406.2
1406.2
Current Opponent ELO
1481.6
75.46
Current ELO Difference
-75.46
0.61
Expected score
0.39
17
History Matches
16
-0.06
Residual Mean
-0.27
47.30
Overperformance
38.00
-0.16
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.20
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.00
PPG
0.60
0.80
Goals for per game
1.80
3.60
Goals against per game
2.80
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
0.60
1.90
Goals for per game
1.30
2.50
Goals against per game
3.10
30.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.37
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.19
2.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
3.10
1.57
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.14
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.46
2.65
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.04
Overall performance9 signals
90
17
Matches
16
1.24
PPG
0.44
35.3%
Win rate
12.5%
17.6%
Draw rate
6.3%
47.1%
Loss rate
81.3%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
87.5%
82.4%
Over 2.5 rate
81.3%
64.7%
Over 3.5 rate
62.5%
2.88
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.69
Venue performance10 signals
100
8
Matches
6
1.75
PPG
0.17
50.0%
Win rate
0.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
16.7%
25.0%
Loss rate
83.3%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
87.5%
Over 2.5 rate
83.3%
75.0%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
3.27
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.25
8
History Matches
6
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.00
Goals for per game
1.19
70.6%
Scoring rate
62.5%
52.9%
BTTS rate
62.5%
2.75
Goals for per game
1.17
87.5%
Scoring rate
66.7%
50.0%
BTTS rate
66.7%
0.80
Goals for per game
1.80
40.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
40.0%
BTTS rate
80.0%
17
History Matches
16
2.00
Goals Mean
1.19
1.78
Goals Std
1.29
70.6%
Scored 1+ rate
62.5%
64.7%
Scored 2+ rate
31.3%
35.3%
Scored 3+ rate
12.5%
2.75
Venue Goals Mean
1.17
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.06
Goals against per game
2.81
82.4%
Conceding rate
93.8%
1.50
Goals against per game
2.83
62.5%
Conceding rate
83.3%
3.60
Goals against per game
2.80
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
17
History Matches
16
2.06
Conceded Mean
2.81
1.43
Conceded Std
1.38
58.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
81.3%
41.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
62.5%
1.50
Venue Conceded Mean
2.83
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
17.6%
Clean-sheet rate
6.3%
29.4%
Failed-to-score rate
37.5%
37.5%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
60.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
17.6%
Clean-sheet rate
6.3%
29.4%
Failed-to-score rate
37.5%
37.5%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
17.6%
Clean-sheet rate
6.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
17
History Matches
16
0.94
Result entropy
0.55
2.88
Goal Difference Std
1.69
6.39
Stability score
45.21
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
17
Eligible Matches
16
5
Lead Matches
2
60.0%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.73
Lead Points Retention
1.00
5
Trailing Matches
10
0.0%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
17
Halftime Coverage Matches
16
0.88
First Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.76
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.75
1.12
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.56
1.29
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.06
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
77.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
9
Normal Rest History Matches
8
1.22
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.00
7
Long Rest History Matches
7
1.43
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.86
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
0.00
PPG
0.60
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
80.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
80.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
80.0%
Over 3.5 rate
60.0%
0.98
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.67
5
Current Competition Matches
5
0.00
Current Competition PPG
0.60
-2.80
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
3
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.95
Portability PPG Std
0.12
1.91
Portability PPG Range
0.24
34.38
Portability Score
80.88
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
17
Clean History Matches
16
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO75.46
PPG0.80
GF0.81
GA-0.75
PPG-0.60
PPG1.58
PPG-0.60
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate11.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate20.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.21
History Matches1
Goals Mean0.81
Goals Std0.50
Scored 1+ rate8.1%
Scored 2+ rate33.5%
Scored 3+ rate22.8%
Venue Goals Mean1.58
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std0.19
History Matches1
Conceded Mean-0.75
Conceded Std0.05
Clean-sheet rate11.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.22
Conceded 3+ rate-0.21
Venue Conceded Mean-1.33
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.43
History Matches1
Result entropy0.39
Goal Difference Std1.19
Stability score-38.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.61
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate-0.40
Lead Points Retention-0.27
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate0.0%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean0.26
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.99
Second Half Goals For Mean0.56
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.23
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.60
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.80
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.84
Portability PPG Range1.67
Portability Score-46.51
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.22
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match0.57
Current Team ELO75.46
Current Opponent ELO-75.46
Current ELO Difference150.9
Expected score0.21
History Matches1
Residual Mean0.21
Overperformance9.31
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.03

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Lübeck II

L
Phönix L. II3–2Lübeck II1 Nov · away
Pick: Phönix L. II 59% · hit
L
Heider SV3–1Lübeck II24 Oct · away
Pick: Heider SV 61% · hit
L
Lübeck II0–5SV Eichede18 Oct · home
Pick: SV Eichede 58% · hit
D
Kaltenkirchen2–2Lübeck II29 Aug · away
Pick: Kaltenkirchen 59% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Eckernförder SV

W
Eckernförder SV2–0Oldenburger SV31 Oct · home
Pick: Oldenburger SV 54% · missed
D
Phönix L. II1–1Eckernförder SV24 Oct · away
Pick: Phönix L. II 64% · missed
L
Eckernförder SV2–6Heider SV17 Oct · home
Pick: Eckernförder SV 43% · missed
L
VfR Neumünster3–0Eckernförder SV30 Aug · away
Pick: VfR Neumünster 83% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Lübeck II and Eckernförder SV meet in Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Lübeck II win 43.3%, draw 14.8%, Eckernförder SV win 42.0%. The pick is Lübeck II win. Over 2.5 goals: 77.2%. Both teams to score: 63.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.