ScoreProb
Júniores U19 Portugal Round 11 2026

Mafra U19 vs Torreense U19

Mafra U19 Home · Elo 1,484
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Torreense U19 Away · Elo 1,473
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Mafra U19 win
Mafra U19 winPick
46.1%
Draw
25.7%
Torreense U19 win
28.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.2%
No47.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.551.6%
Under 2.548.4%

How much we know

Mafra U19 history40 matches
Torreense U19 history44 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (46.1%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Mafra U19 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,484 against 1,473. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Mafra U19 score more

    1.48 goals a game over 40 matches for Mafra U19, against 0.98 over 44 for Torreense U19.

  • Torreense U19 concede fewer

    Mafra U19 concede 1.50 a game, Torreense U19 1.14.

  • Mafra U19 games more often go over 2.5 goals

    55% of Mafra U19 matches, against 34% for Torreense U19. The model puts this match at 52% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Mafra U19
Torreense U19
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1483.7
ELO
1473.0
40
ELO · Matches
44
1483.7
Current Team ELO
1473.0
1473.0
Current Opponent ELO
1483.7
10.68
Current ELO Difference
-10.68
0.52
Expected score
0.48
40
History Matches
44
-0.02
Residual Mean
-0.03
48.68
Overperformance
48.01
0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.00
1.40
Goals for per game
0.80
0.60
Goals against per game
0.80
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.30
1.10
Goals for per game
1.20
0.80
Goals against per game
1.00
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
0.94
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.17
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
0.75
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.10
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.40
Overall performance9 signals
90
40
Matches
44
1.20
PPG
1.16
27.5%
Win rate
29.5%
37.5%
Draw rate
27.3%
35.0%
Loss rate
43.2%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
56.8%
55.0%
Over 2.5 rate
34.1%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
22.7%
1.90
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.35
Venue performance10 signals
100
20
Matches
22
1.55
PPG
0.86
35.0%
Win rate
18.2%
50.0%
Draw rate
31.8%
15.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
85.0%
Over 1.5 rate
72.7%
65.0%
Over 2.5 rate
40.9%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
27.3%
1.79
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.30
20
History Matches
22
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.48
Goals for per game
0.98
67.5%
Scoring rate
61.4%
55.0%
BTTS rate
45.5%
1.70
Goals for per game
0.95
75.0%
Scoring rate
68.2%
65.0%
BTTS rate
59.1%
1.00
Goals for per game
0.67
66.7%
Scoring rate
33.3%
33.3%
BTTS rate
33.3%
40
History Matches
44
1.48
Goals Mean
0.98
1.41
Goals Std
1.06
67.5%
Scored 1+ rate
61.4%
42.5%
Scored 2+ rate
22.7%
25.0%
Scored 3+ rate
9.1%
1.70
Venue Goals Mean
0.95
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.50
Goals against per game
1.14
75.0%
Conceding rate
70.5%
1.40
Goals against per game
1.50
80.0%
Conceding rate
77.3%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.33
66.7%
Conceding rate
66.7%
40
History Matches
44
1.50
Conceded Mean
1.14
1.38
Conceded Std
1.01
42.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
29.5%
17.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.4%
1.40
Venue Conceded Mean
1.50
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
29.5%
32.5%
Failed-to-score rate
38.6%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
22.7%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
31.8%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
66.7%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
29.5%
32.5%
Failed-to-score rate
38.6%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
22.7%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
31.8%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
29.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
40
History Matches
44
0.99
Result entropy
0.98
1.90
Goal Difference Std
1.35
0.76
Stability score
1.95
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
40
Eligible Matches
44
9
Lead Matches
10
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
0.74
Lead Points Retention
0.83
14
Trailing Matches
10
50.0%
Non-loss rate
10.0%
14.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
40
Halftime Coverage Matches
44
0.50
First Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.68
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
0.98
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.48
0.83
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.64
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
76.96
Rest days
75.96
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
24
Normal Rest History Matches
26
1.08
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.12
15
Long Rest History Matches
17
1.27
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.24
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
1.33
PPG
0.33
33.3%
Win rate
0.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
33.3%
33.3%
Loss rate
66.7%
33.3%
Over 1.5 rate
33.3%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
0.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.47
3
Current Competition Matches
3
1.33
Current Competition PPG
0.33
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.67
3
Competition Season Count
3
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.14
Portability PPG Std
0.42
0.34
Portability PPG Range
1.02
78.08
Portability Score
54.37
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
40
Clean History Matches
44
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO10.68
PPG0.04
GF0.50
GA0.36
PPG1.00
PPG0.69
PPG1.00
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches-4
Goals Mean0.50
Goals Std0.36
Scored 1+ rate6.1%
Scored 2+ rate19.8%
Scored 3+ rate15.9%
Venue Goals Mean0.75
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.22
History Matches-4
Conceded Mean0.36
Conceded Std0.37
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Conceded 2+ rate13.0%
Conceded 3+ rate6.1%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.35
History Matches-4
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std0.56
Stability score-1.19
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.30
Eligible Matches-4
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate-0.13
Lead Points Retention-0.09
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate40.0%
Trailing Win Rate14.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches-4
First Half Goals For Mean0.00
First Half Goals Against Mean0.18
Second Half Goals For Mean0.50
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.19
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.67
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.28
Portability PPG Range-0.69
Portability Score23.71
Rest days1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.03
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.03
Current Team ELO10.68
Current Opponent ELO-10.68
Current ELO Difference21.36
Expected score0.03
History Matches-4
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.67
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.03

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Mafra U19

W
União Leiria U190–3Mafra U1924 Oct · away
Pick: União Leiria U19 40% · missed
L
Mafra U190–1Casa Pia U1917 Oct · home
Pick: Mafra U19 50% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Torreense U19

D
Torreense U194–4SC Farense U1931 Oct · home
Pick: Torreense U19 44% · missed
W
Torreense U192–1Alverca U1924 Oct · home
Pick: Torreense U19 45% · hit
D
Santa Clara U191–1Torreense U1917 Oct · away
Pick: Torreense U19 36% · missed
L
Torreense U191–2Sporting CP U1929 Aug · home
Pick: Sporting CP U19 48% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Mafra U19 and Torreense U19 meet in Júniores U19 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Mafra U19 win 46.1%, draw 25.7%, Torreense U19 win 28.3%. The pick is Mafra U19 win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.6%. Both teams to score: 52.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.