ScoreProb
Júniores U19 Portugal Round 11 2026

SC Farense U19 vs Alverca U19

SC Farense U19 Home · Elo 1,509
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Alverca U19 Away · Elo 1,477
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: SC Farense U19 win
SC Farense U19 winPick
42.7%
Draw
27.4%
Alverca U19 win
30.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.1%
No45.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.553.5%
Under 2.546.5%

How much we know

SC Farense U19 history11 matches
Alverca U19 history30 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.7%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why SC Farense U19 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • SC Farense U19 are rated 32 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,509 against 1,477. On rating alone SC Farense U19 would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Alverca U19 score more

    1.09 goals a game over 11 matches for SC Farense U19, against 1.27 over 30 for Alverca U19.

  • Alverca U19 concede fewer

    SC Farense U19 concede 1.45 a game, Alverca U19 1.30.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    55% of SC Farense U19 matches, against 47% for Alverca U19. The model puts this match at 54% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
SC Farense U19
Alverca U19
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1508.7
ELO
1476.5
11
ELO · Matches
30
1508.7
Current Team ELO
1476.5
1476.5
Current Opponent ELO
1508.7
32.21
Current ELO Difference
-32.21
0.55
Expected score
0.45
11
History Matches
30
0.05
Residual Mean
-0.04
51.71
Overperformance
47.73
0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.11
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.40
1.00
Goals for per game
2.00
0.80
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.00
1.10
Goals for per game
1.30
1.10
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.14
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.42
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.22
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.08
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.55
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.81
Overall performance9 signals
90
11
Matches
30
1.45
PPG
1.17
36.4%
Win rate
30.0%
36.4%
Draw rate
26.7%
27.3%
Loss rate
43.3%
63.6%
Over 1.5 rate
73.3%
54.5%
Over 2.5 rate
46.7%
36.4%
Over 3.5 rate
26.7%
1.87
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.52
Venue performance10 signals
100
6
Matches
15
1.83
PPG
1.27
50.0%
Win rate
33.3%
33.3%
Draw rate
26.7%
16.7%
Loss rate
40.0%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
53.3%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.91
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.71
6
History Matches
15
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.09
Goals for per game
1.27
54.5%
Scoring rate
73.3%
45.5%
BTTS rate
56.7%
1.50
Goals for per game
1.33
83.3%
Scoring rate
73.3%
66.7%
BTTS rate
53.3%
1.50
Goals for per game
2.00
50.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
11
History Matches
30
1.09
Goals Mean
1.27
1.08
Goals Std
1.12
54.5%
Scored 1+ rate
73.3%
45.5%
Scored 2+ rate
36.7%
9.1%
Scored 3+ rate
10.0%
1.50
Venue Goals Mean
1.33
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.45
Goals against per game
1.30
63.6%
Conceding rate
76.7%
1.50
Goals against per game
1.20
66.7%
Conceding rate
66.7%
1.00
Goals against per game
2.50
50.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
11
History Matches
30
1.45
Conceded Mean
1.30
1.62
Conceded Std
1.00
36.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
36.7%
18.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.7%
1.50
Venue Conceded Mean
1.20
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
36.4%
Clean-sheet rate
23.3%
45.5%
Failed-to-score rate
26.7%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
26.7%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
36.4%
Clean-sheet rate
23.3%
45.5%
Failed-to-score rate
26.7%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
26.7%
36.4%
Clean-sheet rate
23.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
11
History Matches
30
0.99
Result entropy
0.98
1.87
Goal Difference Std
1.52
0.78
Stability score
2.06
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
11
Eligible Matches
30
3
Lead Matches
8
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
50.0%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.58
4
Trailing Matches
6
25.0%
Non-loss rate
16.7%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
11
Halftime Coverage Matches
30
0.55
First Half Goals For Mean
0.47
0.64
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.40
0.55
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.80
0.82
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.90
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
83.92
Rest days
76.96
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
5
Normal Rest History Matches
16
2.20
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.00
5
Long Rest History Matches
13
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.46
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Portability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
2
Matches
2
2.00
PPG
0.50
50.0%
Win rate
0.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
2.00
Current Competition PPG
0.50
0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.50
2
Competition Season Count
2
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
11
Clean History Matches
30
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO32.21
PPG0.29
GF-0.18
GA0.15
PPG1.50
PPG0.57
PPG0.20
PPG0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-19
Clean-sheet rate13.0%
Failed-to-score rate18.8%
History Matches-9
Clean-sheet rate0.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches-19
Goals Mean-0.18
Goals Std-0.04
Scored 1+ rate-0.19
Scored 2+ rate8.8%
Scored 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Goals Mean0.17
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.28
History Matches-19
Conceded Mean0.15
Conceded Std0.61
Clean-sheet rate13.0%
Conceded 2+ rate0.00
Conceded 3+ rate1.5%
Venue Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.14
History Matches-19
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std0.36
Stability score-1.28
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.26
Eligible Matches-19
Lead Matches-5
Lead Win Rate50.0%
Lead Points Retention0.42
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate8.3%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-19
First Half Goals For Mean0.08
First Half Goals Against Mean0.24
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.25
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.08
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Rest days6.96
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-11
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.20
Long Rest History Matches-8
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.46
Current Team ELO32.21
Current Opponent ELO-32.21
Current ELO Difference64.42
Expected score0.09
History Matches-19
Residual Mean0.09
Overperformance3.98
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.22

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

SC Farense U19

D
Torreense U194–4SC Farense U1931 Oct · away
Pick: Torreense U19 44% · missed
D
Oriental U191–1SC Farense U1924 Oct · away
Pick: Oriental U19 35% · missed
W
SC Farense U193–1União Leiria U1917 Oct · home
Pick: SC Farense U19 42% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Alverca U19

W
Alverca U194–0Santa Clara U1931 Oct · home
Pick: Alverca U19 47% · hit
L
Torreense U192–1Alverca U1924 Oct · away
Pick: Torreense U19 45% · hit
W
Alverca U192–1Oriental U1917 Oct · home
Pick: Alverca U19 45% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

SC Farense U19 and Alverca U19 meet in Júniores U19 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: SC Farense U19 win 42.7%, draw 27.4%, Alverca U19 win 30.0%. The pick is SC Farense U19 win. Over 2.5 goals: 53.5%. Both teams to score: 54.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.