ScoreProb
Júniores U19 Portugal Round 11 2026

Rio Ave U19 vs Feirense U19

Rio Ave U19 Home · Elo 1,519
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Feirense U19 Away · Elo 1,492
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Rio Ave U19 win
Rio Ave U19 winPick
58.5%
Draw
17.2%
Feirense U19 win
24.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.8%
No45.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.560.8%
Under 2.539.2%

How much we know

Rio Ave U19 history44 matches
Feirense U19 history12 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (58.5%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Rio Ave U19 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Rio Ave U19 are rated 27 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,519 against 1,492. On rating alone Rio Ave U19 would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Rio Ave U19 score more

    1.59 goals a game over 44 matches for Rio Ave U19, against 1.33 over 12 for Feirense U19.

  • Defences are close

    Rio Ave U19 concede 1.59 a game, Feirense U19 1.58.

  • Rio Ave U19 games more often go over 2.5 goals

    75% of Rio Ave U19 matches, against 67% for Feirense U19. The model puts this match at 61% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Rio Ave U19
Feirense U19
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1519.4
ELO
1492.0
44
ELO · Matches
12
1519.4
Current Team ELO
1492.0
1492.0
Current Opponent ELO
1519.4
27.41
Current ELO Difference
-27.41
0.54
Expected score
0.46
44
History Matches
12
0.02
Residual Mean
-0.05
51.45
Overperformance
48.29
-0.26
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.80
0.80
Goals for per game
1.20
1.60
Goals against per game
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
0.70
PPG
1.20
1.10
Goals for per game
1.20
2.10
Goals against per game
1.60
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.17
2.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
1.14
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.11
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.61
1.48
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.69
Overall performance9 signals
90
44
Matches
12
1.59
PPG
1.25
50.0%
Win rate
41.7%
9.1%
Draw rate
0.0%
40.9%
Loss rate
58.3%
86.4%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
20.5%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
2.03
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.69
Venue performance10 signals
100
22
Matches
7
1.73
PPG
1.29
54.5%
Win rate
42.9%
9.1%
Draw rate
0.0%
36.4%
Loss rate
57.1%
90.9%
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
81.8%
Over 2.5 rate
57.1%
22.7%
Over 3.5 rate
28.6%
2.57
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.83
22
History Matches
7
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.59
Goals for per game
1.33
86.4%
Scoring rate
66.7%
68.2%
BTTS rate
58.3%
1.77
Goals for per game
1.14
86.4%
Scoring rate
57.1%
68.2%
BTTS rate
42.9%
1.00
Goals for per game
0.67
100.0%
Scoring rate
33.3%
66.7%
BTTS rate
33.3%
44
History Matches
12
1.59
Goals Mean
1.33
1.23
Goals Std
1.18
86.4%
Scored 1+ rate
66.7%
47.7%
Scored 2+ rate
41.7%
13.6%
Scored 3+ rate
25.0%
1.77
Venue Goals Mean
1.14
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.59
Goals against per game
1.58
79.5%
Conceding rate
91.7%
1.82
Goals against per game
1.43
81.8%
Conceding rate
85.7%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.33
66.7%
Conceding rate
100.0%
44
History Matches
12
1.59
Conceded Mean
1.58
1.53
Conceded Std
1.04
45.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
41.7%
18.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.7%
1.82
Venue Conceded Mean
1.43
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
20.5%
Clean-sheet rate
8.3%
13.6%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
18.2%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
13.6%
Failed-to-score rate
42.9%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
66.7%
20.5%
Clean-sheet rate
8.3%
13.6%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
18.2%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
13.6%
Failed-to-score rate
42.9%
20.5%
Clean-sheet rate
8.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
44
History Matches
12
0.85
Result entropy
0.62
2.03
Goal Difference Std
1.69
15.33
Stability score
38.18
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
44
Eligible Matches
12
17
Lead Matches
5
76.5%
Lead Win Rate
60.0%
0.76
Lead Points Retention
0.60
14
Trailing Matches
3
35.7%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
21.4%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
44
Halftime Coverage Matches
12
0.77
First Half Goals For Mean
0.58
0.61
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.33
0.82
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.75
0.98
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.25
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
75.96
Rest days
76.96
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
23
Normal Rest History Matches
7
1.52
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.29
20
Long Rest History Matches
4
1.75
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.75
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
1.33
PPG
1.00
33.3%
Win rate
33.3%
33.3%
Draw rate
0.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.25
3
Current Competition Matches
3
1.33
Current Competition PPG
1.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.67
3
Competition Season Count
2
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.34
Portability PPG Std
0.17
0.78
Portability PPG Range
0.33
59.58
Portability Score
75.00
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
44
Clean History Matches
12
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO27.41
PPG0.34
GF0.26
GA0.01
PPG0.33
PPG0.44
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches32
Clean-sheet rate12.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.20
History Matches15
Clean-sheet rate3.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.29
History Matches32
Goals Mean0.26
Goals Std0.05
Scored 1+ rate19.7%
Scored 2+ rate6.1%
Scored 3+ rate-0.11
Venue Goals Mean0.63
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.47
History Matches32
Conceded Mean0.01
Conceded Std0.49
Clean-sheet rate12.1%
Conceded 2+ rate3.8%
Conceded 3+ rate1.5%
Venue Conceded Mean0.39
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.02
History Matches32
Result entropy0.23
Goal Difference Std0.34
Stability score-22.85
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.20
Eligible Matches32
Lead Matches12
Lead Win Rate16.5%
Lead Points Retention0.16
Trailing Matches11
Non-loss rate35.7%
Trailing Win Rate21.4%
Halftime Coverage Matches32
First Half Goals For Mean0.19
First Half Goals Against Mean0.28
Second Half Goals For Mean0.07
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.27
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.67
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.17
Portability PPG Range0.44
Portability Score-15.42
Rest days-1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches16
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.24
Long Rest History Matches16
Long Rest Points Per Match1.00
Current Team ELO27.41
Current Opponent ELO-27.41
Current ELO Difference54.82
Expected score0.08
History Matches32
Residual Mean0.07
Overperformance3.16
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.21

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Rio Ave U19

W
Academico Viseu U191–2Rio Ave U1931 Oct · away
Pick: Academico Viseu U19 39% · missed
L
Gil Vicente U193–1Rio Ave U1924 Oct · away
Pick: Gil Vicente U19 50% · hit
W
Rio Ave U191–0Sporting Braga U1917 Oct · home
Pick: Sporting Braga U19 54% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Feirense U19

W
Feirense U191–0Porto U1931 Oct · home
Pick: Porto U19 65% · missed
L
Feirense U190–1Vitoria Guimaraes U1924 Oct · home
Pick: Vitoria Guimaraes U19 37% · hit
D
Moreirense U191–1Feirense U1917 Oct · away
Pick: Moreirense U19 42% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Rio Ave U19 and Feirense U19 meet in Júniores U19 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Rio Ave U19 win 58.5%, draw 17.2%, Feirense U19 win 24.3%. The pick is Rio Ave U19 win. Over 2.5 goals: 60.8%. Both teams to score: 54.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.